Thread by @douglewinenergy

It should surprise no one that the #ERCOT grid isn't fixed. There's a good chance there will be outages at some point over the next 3 days. Here's a look at what's going on.
1/🧵#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter

A LOT of thermal power plants are out for maintenance (~16GW) & Friday, more broke: 6 gas plants = to ~3GW, roughly an Austin worth of power. I'll get into why power plants are breaking below.
#txenergy 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Here are four key things to remember as Texans spend the weekend obsessively checking @ERCOT_ISO’s dashboard to see how the grid is holding up. 3/ ercot.com/gridmktinfo/da…

(1) Running the grid “conservatively,” as @ERCOT_ISO and @PUCTX like to tell you they’re doing, means forcing thermal plants to be ready to run more than they would have in past years. 4/
#energytwitter #txlege

Also, operating the grid "conservatively," somewhat ironically, raises costs by a lot—probably about $1b/ year, though @ERCOT_ISO & @PUCTX won’t say— and it dramatically increases the chances that these massive power plants will break down.
#txenergy 5/

(2) When thermal power plants are offline or break, when wind and/or solar are low, and demand high, you need other resources. Two great ones are demand response & storage. We have very little demand response overall & damn near zero residential #demandresponse.
#txlege 6/

We could get automated reductions from things like pool pumps & electric hot water heaters. If even just 10-20% of the population opts in—& is paid for it—we’d have demand reductions = to the output of many power plants. This was a recommendation by FERC/NERC after Feb.
#txlege

As I said to @maria_aguilera, as bad as this May is, imagine what July/Aug might be. As we're seeing, @ERCOT_ISO & @PUCTX are not ready. They can and should begin a massive #demandresponse effort now to help prepare for summer.
#ercot 8/
kvue.com/article/news/l…

Instead of begging people to reduce, pay them. Make it systematic, automatic. Help Texans reduce their energy bills while increasing reliability. This should have been done a long time ago. Next best time is now. I wrote about #DERs and DR for @REWorld
renewableenergyworld.com/solar/texas-gr…

In addition to DR, we need more #storage. We’ve got some but ERCOT recently passed a rule (called an NPRR) that keeps 1- and 2- hour storage out of the Non Spin Reserve Service, a formerly $50m/ year program that is now ~$500m. 10/

In situations like we’re in this weekend & Monday, 1-2 hour batteries would be especially helpful. Excluding these resources from non-spin removes a key price signal for investors & develpers. This NPRR was a mistake & ERCOT should change it. #txlege 11/
ercot.com/mktrules/issue…

(3) We’re not prepared for #climatechange. It’s not a 2050 thing—it’s a 2022 thing.

We are living in the age of climate change now.

After last year’s deadly winter blackouts, @ERCOT_ISO’s then-CEO admitted they don’t plan for climate change. Guess what? They still don’t. 12/

ERCOT still uses an average of the last 15 years to forecast demand. But the last 15 years aren’t a good predictor of even this year, because the climate has changed already. Dramatically. State leadership has failed to take climate change seriously, but it’s here anyway. 13/

Finally, (4) We should focus on lowering demand through #energyefficiency. Of the 30 states with an EE goal, Texas is dead last, 80% below the average state. Utilities’ efficiency plans for 2023 show no increases. Not even a little. That threatens reliability & increases costs.

.@ERCOT_ISO and @PUCTX could treat this like the emergency it is and increase efficiency goals this summer, or even next summer—giving Texans lower bills and more reliable electricity in one fell swoop. But I’m not holding my breath.
aceee.org/white-paper/20…
#energytwitter 15/

I talked with @BlakeFox4News about this the other day. "One of the biggest levers we could pull that would have the biggest impact is #energyefficiency. And they're just leaving it. They're just neglecting it. It doesn't make any sense to me." #txlege 16/
fox4news.com/news/ercot-war…

One last thing: there’s no good reason why ERCOT waited until 5pm Friday to alert the public, outside of politics. @ERCOT_ISO and @PUCTX really owe it to Texans to communicate earlier and clearer.
#txlege #txenergy 17/

https://twitter.com/Forrest4Trees/status/1525237545977749504?s=20&t=t5LA7i5f_Bqf96lCPJFGNQ

The statement they issued yesterday was worded so vaguely and was so confusing that it basically made no sense. They've got to do better. There's no excuse for the 5pm notice or the lack of clarity. 18/

I say it every time we're in these situations (so, a lot): we’ll continue to have these problems until we deal seriously with climate change & address the demand side of the equation. It doesn't have to be this way. Stay cool, if you can, & demand better of state leaders.
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