Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 17, 2022 14 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Finally, #Zelensky has ordered, or likely more accurately been forced to accept, the surrender of the men who refuse to go on dying for his ego. As I wrote more than once, had it not been for their recent use of human shields to extend the lifespan of the #Azovstl siege, and the
endless begging for the world to save them (much more from Serhyi Volyna & others than #Azov's Denys "Redis" Prokopenko), then they could have come out to the salute & applause of their Russian foes. Their more recent actions were a stain on the honor of their brave stand.
Ironically, but not surprisingly, this more shameful period is when the world media has lionized & even idolized them much more. As I noted recently, this would only serve to increase the PR value of the soon-to-be POWs held by #Russia.
The fact is #Zelensky & #Ukraine had no ability nor plan to lift the #Azovstal siege. They turned their fighters into beggars, who would not go a day without pleading for world help, because their fellow fighters were not coming. #Kiev would not send them. They turned them into
common hostage takers who hid behind women & children only to extend #Zelensky's PR siege a few more weeks. A few more weeks of chances to bring on WWIII. The shameless #Eurovision became part of this lame game. But all the trendy #Ukraine supporters on their iPhones in the world
would not change the fact that only a great number of well armed, determined and very brave men, could save #Azovstal from the grip of the Russian forces that bled for months to see its fall. #Ukraine did not have these men, and if other countries did, it was not for UA & #Azov.
Other nations were not so willing to recklessly waste their fighters' lives. Not to appease the comedian in Kiev. They joined the lip service support, along with the iphone gluten free crowd. What few have grasped about this war from the get-go, is that its outcome will be
determined by the will of brave men on the ground facing off against each other. Not the Pope, and certainly not Eurovision, can do much about it. So what did this achieve? Only that more of the Ukrainian fighters died, more civilians died, war crimes & their honor was stained.
Now that the inevitable has happened, but brave men have needlessly died (on both sides), so that #Zelensky could have more time to try to start WWIII, he has finally been forced to accept #Azovstal's surrender. That it happened may surprise many, though it ought not to.
These are men who mostly believe they were abandoned and lied to by their government in Kiev (who they were not thrilled about to begin with). #Azov's Kalina publicly decried this fact, and the fiercest & most unsung warriors of the 36th Marine brigade who attempted to break out
of #Ilyich and #Mariupol echoed this indictment before their final battle. There fell the Brigade commander (who Serhyi now pretends to be).

shorturl.at/qsyE6

Undoubtedly, we will see more of this criticism in Russian interviews with some of the POWs.
Others among them were those scared to fight, break out or surrender previously (such as Serhyi Volyna). The bravest and most soldierly in the #Mariupol crowd were dead or captured already. Who are left are mostly survivors before anything. Of course most would surrender.
How many more are dead and maimed for #Zelensky's frail regime?

These fighters had done beyond their duty long ago. The main RU forces that pushed them into #Azovstal have long since redeployed. Minimal forces & artillery could now keep them in their bunkers. Their sacrifice was
for nothing more than cheap PR, for a long time now. Furthermore the PR effort will now backfire as it led everyone to believe, falsely, that #Azovstal could not fall and somehow the fighters would be rescued. Russia, in charge on the ground, didn't care too much about the PR.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Dec 27, 2023
Let us update the 98th Division's progress in Khan Younis. The Division is getting reinforced by forces freed from the (major) fighting in the northern strip which is nearing conclusion.

First let us compare sat images from Dec 11 and Dec 26.

1 Pair of the northern Khan Younis



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front and the other of the southern or central front. We can see the the logistic axis are being expanded by the division. The surrounded areas of Jarara are being cleared. Most importantly we see significant advances in the densest parts of the city. Bani Suheila, which serves
as a second "downtown" for Khan Younis, previously surrounded, is completely captured. Let us update the @Suriyakmaps with the most recent advances. The red, basically western Khan Younis, is what remains to be captured, with hard fighting expected in the central core. Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 27, 2023
Investigative Committee has confirmed, through DNA results, Prigozhin's and Utkin's death (along with all 8 others on the manifest).

Likely, the pride of Russia has fallen. And its people mourn.

Russia's patriot philopsher, Alexander Dugin, told us of how his daughter Darya,
murdered by a cowardly Ukrainian terrorist attack, had said of Mr. Prigozhin:

"Prigozhin is so bold, intelligent, and self-confident that surely no one prays for him, it doesn't cross anyone's mind. Let's start praying for him."

Mr. Dugin also said

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that if the"...enemy kills our heroes with precision, it means that we have heroes.” Indeed true.

Reminds me something I have long noted, who it is that wants you dead says a lot about you.

The Russian thinker also stated that... Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 24, 2023
For reporting beyond the sensational, a more sobering thread about Pirgozhin, with posts added since the events.
Most analysts were certain that Putin ordered the plane blown out of the sky. Many of those are the same certain that Putin ordered his Nord Stream 2 destroyed, the
Kakhovka dam collapsed to flood his own positions, and the ZPP nuclear power plant under his control constantly shelled.
Others are eager to see a "strong" Putin that has avenged a betrayal of the sate.
Few if any have seen through the smoke, especially when it came to Wagner and
Prigozhin. In the past, events have lent credence to my conclusions on him and his group, and perhaps this is the case once again.
Putin meant "mistakes" in Prigozhin's past, regarding his jail time, not a recent betrayal. Read the thread, watch the video.
Who panicked at the
Read 5 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
I had been writing a follow up to my previous pieces, in the Wagner drama It was evident that there was a Russian state attempt to discredit Prigozhin, in order to alienate him from Wagner. Russia, or some faction(s) within it, were trying to keep Wagner and remove Prigozhin.

I had literally written these words in my draft. This is why we saw the disclosures of wealth, weapons and disguises. I believed it would fail in its goal, and reminded me of attempts at telling Trump voters that he is a billionaire in order to alienate them from him.

Wagnerites, and other Prigozhin supporters know that he is very wealthy. And a man commanding a private army, is not one who would surprise others when having a few light weapons in his private home. Disguises likewise, were entertaining to silly folks but said nothing about the man other that he plays serious games with serious stakes, and takes them seriously.

In any event, this was in contrast to Prigozhin seemingly travelling freely back and forth between Belarus and Russia, reports of receiving his assets back, and continuing to do Russia's work in Africa.

The trend it seemed, was that cooler heads would prevail as time passed and tempers cooled. It will be very interesting to find out firstly who was on board that plane, who was on the second plane (and what happened to them upon landing), and what President Lukashenko (who likes to talk), has to say about today's events.

If Prigozhin is indeed deceased, we can be sure of seeing a message (hopefully video) from Wagner commanders. And unless the whole top echelon was taken out, I believe it will not be a disloyal message.

We could see everything from, Prigozhin was crazy, and led us astray, and we love Shoigu and MoD, to the opposite being nearly a declaration of vengeance if not war against the MoD (if not Putin). And anything in the middle.

I expect in such a case we would hear words firstly loyal both to Mr. Prigozhin and to Russia. But I would much rather hear, if not today eventually, that the intrepid billionaire as I like to call him, still lives.
Ladies and gents, would Prigozhin be on board a 10 year old Embraer ERJ-135, or the 16 year old one??

Would he be on the leading one or the one following? And would he be flying in the lower or higher altitude?

Also note the different publicly known operator histories:

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IF Prigozhin was actually on board and is gone, which is yet unconfirmed and I hope not the case, we are looking at these possibilities:

1. Plane shot down with authorization by Putin. As the BRICS summit starts (perhaps odd).

2. Plane shot down by a faction(s) within the army or gov't without Putin's authorization.

3. Ukraine (or other enemy) was able to place an explosive on the plane.

4. Treason or coup within Wagner. Someone in the organization, alone or with help of any of the sponsors of the first 3 options, placed an explosive on the plane.
Perhaps to end the feud, and enjoy the good graces of the MoD once again.

Which of these it is, will lead to very different consequences, and whichever it is, it will be hard to prove it to many folks' satisfaction.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15, 2023
Something eerily strange and yet somehow predictable is occurring in mainstream US media reporting.

The Maui fires, and specifically the #Lahaina fires are being virtually ignored.

This of course has relegated the story to the conspiracy fringe, which in a more normal world
not too long ago was always wrong but has lately seen more and more of its charges be at least significantly validated.

The official death count is at 99, was 96 yesterday and 89 the day before that. On Aug 11th it had been 67.

The problem is that much of the town is gone, an
estimated 2,200 structures have been burned, and evacuation, at lest in the western part of the town was halted by the authorities. Local personnel are also not searching within many burnt out structures until FEMA staff search for bodies first.

Normally I tend to believe
Read 46 tweets
Aug 8, 2023
We have often discussed logistics in this war, including specifically Russia's nearly unique Railway Troops (in quoted thread from last year).

The force, which has since grown, celebrated its 172nd anniversary, with the MoD releasing footage for the occasion.

Since our last https://t.co/E2fQJpVTfX
discussion on the Railway Troops, they have become even more important.

On the logistics side, we have several strategic railways and rail hubs near the front (for both sides). They cannot be safely used by regular rail service. RU railway troops have an advantage in being able
to use this force, without drawing on other forces less suited for the job, to patrol these railways, not only against sabotage but also routinely repairing them due to enemy strikes, and clearing them of remotely delivered mines.

The Railway Troops can organize smaller armed
Read 18 tweets

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