Thread by @ZimermanErik

Wish to speculate that this report is quite wrong. Various reliable sources are reporting that #Zarichne & #Khotimlya have been captured by #Ukraine, after crossing the wide (dammed) Siverskyi Donets river, Though its possible that DRG units crossed for reconnaissance & sabotage,

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1526814175074336768

I don't believe there is an actual bridgehead established there. Certainly not one with armored vehicles and a supply route. I commented earlier on this:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1526754752717103109

The thread's 1st images show that as of May 18th, the bridges at Staryi Saltiv & Rubizhne are still

destroyed. Though there is much cloud cover, no visible pontoon bridge is seen elsewhere on the river. What is perhaps more likely, and caused the misreporting, is that #Ukrainian DRG units crossed at the still intact bridge (at least as of May 13th) around Starytsya & attacked

towards Vovchansk, which is a major supply hub. The river here is narrow and the #Ukrainian special forces may have navigated through the forest (as they like to do) north of Rubizhne & unexpectedly crossed at this bridge. This is why one of the original sources of the report

reads that the they are already in the outskirts of Vovchansk. Note the report's "presumably" sentence regarding location of the crossing is nonsensical & either intentionally vague or in error. This commando raid to disrupt the supply routes makes more sense.

Additionally, if successful in blocking, then it would make sense to move in units into the southern towns and perhaps that is why they were shelled (from the west bank in preparation). This is an imaginative Ukrainian operation, instead of the fantastical one that was reported.

Using the DPA map (who is excellent), will show what I mean. Special DRG or other UA units may have established firing positions across the donets further north, in an attempt to cut off the supply & reinforcement route (since there are such few RU forces in the area, relying on

the natural barrier of the river). At the same time artillery from Staryi Saltiv shelled the east bank (hopefully RU positions and not random parts of the villages), in preparation for crossing. Additionally it is possible that some DRG units crossed here as well, but if so, have

likely crossed back since the main supply route from the north was not in fact cut and no secure bridgehead has been established anywhere on the east bank. It is even likely that the village of Starystya was bypassed by skillful navigation and not captured by UA forces. Thus, any

light forces presence on the east bank, in the north or south of the sector must be either very quickly reinforced and strengthened, or withdrawn. It has now been too long, and RU forces have had plenty of time to reinforce along these main routes. Additionally Russian

counterattacks from Ternova & elsewhere threaten to cut off the entire UA effort eastwards in the area. In this sector, forces on both sides are thin, and UA has redeployed more units to the critical Donbass fights recently. As it stands, it does not have the strength to push

eastwards to cut off the critical hubs in the area such as Vovchansk and Velyki Burluk. Other #Ukrainian forces however, from the Chuhuiv area continue to attempt an eastward advance towards the critical RU hub of Kupyansk. If they succeeded, it would collapse the RU #Izum front.

UA forces are using significant artillery in this effort, but it is an obvious one, and Russian reinforcements for the moment seem to be enough to stop them. Attack is much more complex than defense, and the UA forces will find out that if they advance, they need to do so on a

wide enough front or simply get lured in and cut off by the Russian forces who appear to be trying to just that in several sectors. We shall see if time finds me correct, or sorely mistaken, my bold assertions turned to mere folly.