Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 19 14 tweets 7 min read
A word about the ongoing #Azovstal surrender and its effect on the #Donbass front. I believe it is no coincidence that the #Russian advance (and #Ukrainian retreat, if not collapse) has gained speed precisely as the surrender proceeds. Sure part of it is simply
the obvious combined effect on the two armies. #Russian troops' morale is raised by their long awaited victory. If even the lionized soldiers of #Azov are surrendering, certainly those lesser #Ukrainian ones in front them can be defeated as well - goes the thinking. On the other
hand, #Ukrainian troops' morale plummets as their lionized if not idolized, invincible troops at #Azovstal surrender. Not even defeated in battle, fighting to the last, as #Zelensky so badly wanted them to do, but surrendering. They want to live thinks the UA soldier holding
the line in Donbass, well so do I he concludes and has had enough. Sure. But I believe there is more, an important multiplier to this effect. Those not blinded by mainstream reporting know that #Ukrainian reporting is often very inaccurate to put it mildly & that their propaganda
is bold, usually effective overall, and often outlandish. In this case it went so far and was so base that it has backfired. At least when it comes to warriors. In the simplest terms, Ukraine announced the surrender of #Azovstal fighters, nearly 1000 in the last couple of days
(we will be seeing more in the coming days), as if a successful commando operation had been executed and its sieged fighters had been extricated successfully. Mainstream media parroted this and millions around the world thought it is what happened. Still most are confused as
the exact nature of what transpired. They believe it must at the least mean some sort of prisoner exchange. In reality all that happened was a surrender. As I reported this, people commented with the likes of this. Understandably as it literally repeated what UA announced.
For more details on the misreporting see the quoted thread above. In any event while the misreporting may work on western media, it did not work on the #Ukrainian soldiers. They get their news from UA sources of course and they realized the pathetic attempt at subterfuge.
The #Ukrainian soldiers saw right through the cheap veneer of the declaration. It reeks of abuse of soldiers. The gov't used lies to keep them in #Mariupol as they were encircled. It used more lies to keep them there long after it was reasonable or militarily effective. More lies
had them hold out under inhuman conditions, their wounded fellows rotting away for no apparent reason. Finally when the unavoidable end arrived, & the soldiers that decided that they have done more than duty, and will come out regardless of what the comedian in #Kiev orders, the
regime offers a whole new set of preposterous lies. Soldiers can feel the care and respect their superiors have or don't have for their lives. Much better than disinterested parties around the world, prone to believe whatever the news says to them, they can sense a government
that will use & abuse them, by any means at their disposal in order to obtain its goals. War does not follow regular economic and rational norms. A man is willing to work hard to get a bigger flat screen TV. He isn't willing to kill and die for one. Men don't fight for salaries.
Not in difficult conditions in any event. Warriors are driven by another set of rules housed deep in the recess of our brains, by an ancient code that is based on honor. The Ukrainian government knows nothing of it, and its soldiers are starting to realize it.
Bravery is contagious, and so is collapse.

#Zekelensky's lies may have begun the latter.

#Warinukraine

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More from @ZimermanErik

May 20
The #Russian counterattack in #Kharkhov aims to cut off Ukrainian troops that advanced too far north and east from the city. It is aiming for the Kharkhov - Staryi Saltiv road (T2014) and to retake a town around Cherkaksi and/or Ruski Tyshky, trapping UA forces north of that all Image
the way to Lyptsi. The reason this is possible is because there is a dense forest on the west flank of the Kharkhov - Lyptsi road. The troops could be fully or semi trapped because of this as there are no major, even secondary roads through the forest. Whether troop encirclements
Note the Russian shelling so far south of the front line as of yesterday. Two days ago the front was even further north, as Ternova & Rubizhne were captured by Russia in the beginning of this counteroffensive. The front is sparse with units and RU had been tactically withdrawing.
Read 7 tweets
May 20
No time for a full update on the northern #Popasna front & salient. However, note that light RU forces, perhaps airborne troops, are advancing along my preferred previously quoted route. After #Popasna's fall, I had indicated that though #Bakhmut is the obvious target, terrain,
fortification and conditions dictated a more creative #Russian advance. The road northwards was open to advance, the key target #Vrubivka, & westwards the attack needed to be on the north side of the entrenchments on the Popasna - Bakhmut road, perhaps along the railway line,
towards Soledar. This is exactly what is developing thus far. Taking my previous image, have added red rectangles to indicate the latest #Russian advances aligning with the preferred routes I had indicated. Since the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets is either stalled Image
Read 5 tweets
May 20
Lots to update elsewhere, but a word on the salient south of #Popasna, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the ImageImage
#Ukrainian front. It guards the critical junctions of #Bakhmut and #Kostyantynivka. The Horlivka (RU) front, has not moved very much the entire war due to these heavy entrenchments. Note the two main roads south from Bakhmut that feed this front. Also note the important railway
from #Poapsna (now under RU control). Finally, two important cities, #Svitlodarsk & #Myronivskyi are behind this front. It would be very difficult for RU to attempt to take these by frontal attack. Cutting off one of these roads would be a strong blow to this front & both
Read 12 tweets
May 19
The #Russian counteroffensive in Kharkhov has begun, now that UA troops are far from the large city. More Ukrainian shelling towards the east bank, but more evidence that there is no bridgehead there. Also seems like #Ternova was recaptured by RU. Believe I was alone in reporting Image
the developing counterattack in #Ternova (which threatens to cut off UA forces trying to push east) couple of days ago. One thing is advancing against stiff enemy resistance (as RU is doing in the #Donbass). Another is doing so, invited by tactical enemy withdrawals.
You run the risk of being lured into a trap, at the very least, you are going along with your enemy's plans instead of disrupting them. The war in strategic terms, is getting more interesting.
Read 4 tweets
May 19
The avg reply to this comment is quite disappointing in terms of basic knowledge of our political landscape. We can of course disagree w each other but it would be nice if we knew what we were disagreeing with. You can disagree with @RandPaul's (& father's) championing of liberty
. Many in fact do and may say that such extreme personal freedom is too much and that societies need the government to drastically restrict & regulate this freedom. But to deny that Rand Paul supports this freedom is to not have any idea what his beliefs are (not surprising given
the state of our media). Because if he doesn't champion liberty, then certainly no one else in the US Senate does. And neither does nearly any politician in high office on earth.
Read 5 tweets
May 19
Wish to speculate that this report is quite wrong. Various reliable sources are reporting that #Zarichne & #Khotimlya have been captured by #Ukraine, after crossing the wide (dammed) Siverskyi Donets river, Though its possible that DRG units crossed for reconnaissance & sabotage,
I don't believe there is an actual bridgehead established there. Certainly not one with armored vehicles and a supply route. I commented earlier on this:


The thread's 1st images show that as of May 18th, the bridges at Staryi Saltiv & Rubizhne are still
destroyed. Though there is much cloud cover, no visible pontoon bridge is seen elsewhere on the river. What is perhaps more likely, and caused the misreporting, is that #Ukrainian DRG units crossed at the still intact bridge (at least as of May 13th) around Starytsya & attacked
Read 14 tweets

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