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Erik Zimerman Profile picture
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May 19 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The #Russian counteroffensive in Kharkhov has begun, now that UA troops are far from the large city. More Ukrainian shelling towards the east bank, but more evidence that there is no bridgehead there. Also seems like #Ternova was recaptured by RU. Believe I was alone in reporting
the developing counterattack in #Ternova (which threatens to cut off UA forces trying to push east) couple of days ago. One thing is advancing against stiff enemy resistance (as RU is doing in the #Donbass). Another is doing so, invited by tactical enemy withdrawals.
You run the risk of being lured into a trap, at the very least, you are going along with your enemy's plans instead of disrupting them. The war in strategic terms, is getting more interesting.
Note that the #Ukrainian artillery strikes on the east bank in Zarichne, Metalivka & Buhaivka, starting a few days, have consistently caused fires in the forested areas. Originally I had thought that perhaps indicated much heavier weaponry.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 20
The #Russian counterattack in #Kharkhov aims to cut off Ukrainian troops that advanced too far north and east from the city. It is aiming for the Kharkhov - Staryi Saltiv road (T2014) and to retake a town around Cherkaksi and/or Ruski Tyshky, trapping UA forces north of that all Image
the way to Lyptsi. The reason this is possible is because there is a dense forest on the west flank of the Kharkhov - Lyptsi road. The troops could be fully or semi trapped because of this as there are no major, even secondary roads through the forest. Whether troop encirclements
Note the Russian shelling so far south of the front line as of yesterday. Two days ago the front was even further north, as Ternova & Rubizhne were captured by Russia in the beginning of this counteroffensive. The front is sparse with units and RU had been tactically withdrawing.
Read 7 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 20
No time for a full update on the northern #Popasna front & salient. However, note that light RU forces, perhaps airborne troops, are advancing along my preferred previously quoted route. After #Popasna's fall, I had indicated that though #Bakhmut is the obvious target, terrain,
fortification and conditions dictated a more creative #Russian advance. The road northwards was open to advance, the key target #Vrubivka, & westwards the attack needed to be on the north side of the entrenchments on the Popasna - Bakhmut road, perhaps along the railway line,
towards Soledar. This is exactly what is developing thus far. Taking my previous image, have added red rectangles to indicate the latest #Russian advances aligning with the preferred routes I had indicated. Since the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets is either stalled Image
Read 5 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 20
Lots to update elsewhere, but a word on the salient south of #Popasna, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the ImageImage
#Ukrainian front. It guards the critical junctions of #Bakhmut and #Kostyantynivka. The Horlivka (RU) front, has not moved very much the entire war due to these heavy entrenchments. Note the two main roads south from Bakhmut that feed this front. Also note the important railway
from #Poapsna (now under RU control). Finally, two important cities, #Svitlodarsk & #Myronivskyi are behind this front. It would be very difficult for RU to attempt to take these by frontal attack. Cutting off one of these roads would be a strong blow to this front & both
Read 12 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 19
A word about the ongoing #Azovstal surrender and its effect on the #Donbass front. I believe it is no coincidence that the #Russian advance (and #Ukrainian retreat, if not collapse) has gained speed precisely as the surrender proceeds. Sure part of it is simply
the obvious combined effect on the two armies. #Russian troops' morale is raised by their long awaited victory. If even the lionized soldiers of #Azov are surrendering, certainly those lesser #Ukrainian ones in front them can be defeated as well - goes the thinking. On the other
hand, #Ukrainian troops' morale plummets as their lionized if not idolized, invincible troops at #Azovstal surrender. Not even defeated in battle, fighting to the last, as #Zelensky so badly wanted them to do, but surrendering. They want to live thinks the UA soldier holding
Read 14 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 19
The avg reply to this comment is quite disappointing in terms of basic knowledge of our political landscape. We can of course disagree w each other but it would be nice if we knew what we were disagreeing with. You can disagree with @RandPaul's (& father's) championing of liberty
. Many in fact do and may say that such extreme personal freedom is too much and that societies need the government to drastically restrict & regulate this freedom. But to deny that Rand Paul supports this freedom is to not have any idea what his beliefs are (not surprising given
the state of our media). Because if he doesn't champion liberty, then certainly no one else in the US Senate does. And neither does nearly any politician in high office on earth.
Read 5 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 19
Wish to speculate that this report is quite wrong. Various reliable sources are reporting that #Zarichne & #Khotimlya have been captured by #Ukraine, after crossing the wide (dammed) Siverskyi Donets river, Though its possible that DRG units crossed for reconnaissance & sabotage,
I don't believe there is an actual bridgehead established there. Certainly not one with armored vehicles and a supply route. I commented earlier on this:


The thread's 1st images show that as of May 18th, the bridges at Staryi Saltiv & Rubizhne are still
destroyed. Though there is much cloud cover, no visible pontoon bridge is seen elsewhere on the river. What is perhaps more likely, and caused the misreporting, is that #Ukrainian DRG units crossed at the still intact bridge (at least as of May 13th) around Starytsya & attacked
Read 14 tweets

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