Mousepox, caused by orthopoxvirus ectromelia virus, closely related to #smallpox only infects mice. In mice it causes a mild illness. In 2001 Australian scientists were developing a contraceptive vaccine for mice. But it killed all the mice. (Thread) newscientist.com/article/dn311-…
The vaccine was to help control mouse breeding and reduce agricultural damage . They used ectromelia virus as a vector to carry mouse egg proteins so the mice would develop antibodies to their own eggs and thereby become infertile.
They inserted a gene for production of interleukin-4, a cytokine that stimulates the immune system, hoping this would accelerate the production of antibodies. When they vaccinated the mice with smallpox vaccine (which also protects against ectromelia virus),
they discovered the genetic changes they had engineered also made the mice resistant to smallpox vaccine. In effect, they had created a more deadly virus that was also vaccine-resistant.
The work sparked concern around the world, because it suggested that similar engineering of #smallpox could produce a more lethal version that current vaccines could not protect against. Natural smallpox has a 30 per cent fatality rate.
The mousepox experiment killed all the mice – what if a similarly engineered smallpox resulted in a fatality rate of 50 to 100 per cent? If current vaccines could not protect against such a virus, then a pandemic of engineered smallpox could be an extinction event.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
MPX is an orthopoxvirus closely related to #smallpox. It has 2 clades- the milder one has a fatality rate similar to #SARSCoV2 - the other, closer to SARS1 at 10%. UK outbreak caused by the milder clade. #monkeypox has surged since 2017 due to (thread) wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…
A combination of waning immunity from smallpox vaccines - mass vaccination stopped by 1980, when SPX declared eradicated; population growth and ecological factors as we explored wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…
Smallpox vaccines work against MPX, and also work as post-exposure prophylaxis in a strategy devised during the eradication campaign called "ring vaccination" because of a long incubation period. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
Let's talk about the mystery epidemic of #hepatitis in children. It's most likely a complication of #COVID19 but may take a while to be adjudicated as such. The syndrome has been seen in children <17, mostly unvaccinated kids <5 years. A thread.
Hepatitis is a known presentation of #MISConlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ij… & MISC is a late complication, after the acute infection. So, the fact that PCR is negative is not surprising.
Also, kids do not have as robust an antibody response as adults so may be -ve on serology too. nature.com/articles/s4159…
A lot of defeatist chatter about the small 4th dose trial published in @NEJM. A thread on interpretation. 3rd dose protection wanes substantially. Note, the Y axis is a log scale, so small differences are actually large differences. 1/5 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
The 4th dose restored waned immunity to the same level or higher than early after dose 3. That's good, because without dose 4, there is little protection. The VE against symptomatic infection was 31-43%. On a population level, this is important. 2/5
The 11-30% VE against any infection will make a substantial impact on transmission at a population level. The impact of vaccines is a function of VE, coverage and incidence of infection. When incidence is high, even a vaccine of modest VE can have a major population impact. 3/5
NSW should immediately reinstate mask mandates, QR codes, contact tracing, and 3 day home isolation for international travellers. Abandoning everything while Omicron takes over and cases surge to unprecedented levels is more than a mistake. It is reckless. 1/3
Data not clear that Omicron is less severe and still emerging. See
Even if Omicron less severe, 25K cases a day means the health system will collapse if even a small % need hospitalisation. Loss of protection of 2 doses of vax will negate ↓ severity
Those who got AZ are most at risk because protection against symptomatic infection drops to 5.9% after 2 doses according to UK data. About 34% for Pfizer. khub.net/documents/1359…
Reality check: #SARSCoV2 will never be endemic. It is an epidemic disease, and always will be. This means it will find unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people and spread rapidly in those groups. It will display the typical waxing and waning pattern of epidemic diseases 1/5.
Cases rise rapidly over days or weeks. No truly endemic disease does this. This is the reason governments prepare for pandemics - the propensity for epidemics to grow rapidly can stress the health system in a very short time. Here is the pattern, classic epidemic. 2/5
Every epidemic infection follows this pattern unless eliminated by vaccination or mitigated by non-pharmaceutical measures. Natural infection NEVER eliminated any infection. Not smallpox, which displayed the same pattern over 100s of years. 3/5