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Nov 16

NEW | The Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly told Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (1/6)

This report, assuming it is accurate, highlights the extent to which Iran lacks the capability or willingness to defend the Axis of Resistance against Israel. (2/6)

A senior adviser to the supreme leader, Ali Larijani, conveyed the message during his recent visit to Beirut.(3/6)

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Nov 13

NEW | Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.

It is unclear if the Russian military intends to conduct a unified offensive operation or separate assaults.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters in a November 11 article that Russian forces are moving trained assault groups to forward positions in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Voloshyn stated that Russian forces may intensify assaults with armored vehicles, buggies, and motorcycles in the near future since Russian forces have conducted preliminary reconnaissance operations in the area and have increased the number of air strikes in southern Ukraine by 30 to 40 percent in the past two to three weeks.

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Critical Threats

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Oct 29

Hezbollah is relying on rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions and has abandoned high-end supplies.

Learn why @brian_cartr assesses Hezbollah’s forces are in disarray🧵⬇️

Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and Hezbollah has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes.

Hezbollah is not combining rocket and mortar attacks with infantry, which would be necessary to effectively defend against Israeli attacks.

These rocket and mortar attacks are also not limiting the IDF’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield.

The slow pace of IDF operations instead reflects lessons learned from the Gaza Strip.

Read 7 tweets

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Oct 28

Israel has routed Hezbollah units, at least the immediate border area.

Hezbollah has so far failed to effectively execute any serious military undertaking at scale.

Read the analysis from @brian_cartr 🧵⬇️

The IDF entered Lebanon in force on October 1 after a months-long air and ground campaign that disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure.

Israel’s persistent airstrikes likely continue to disrupt Hezbollah reorganization efforts.

Hezbollah likely planned to take one of several tactical tasks in response to an Israeli ground operation in Lebanon.

These tasks included a deliberate defense, withdrawal, or delay.

Read 10 tweets

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Oct 27

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted three waves of strikes into Iran on October 25. The strikes were in response to the large-scale ballistic missile attack that Iran launched against Israel on October 1. The IDF targeted around 20 locations around Tehran and western Iran, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs. 1/5

The IDF in particular struck four S-300 air defense batteries, which are Russian-made and the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates. That the IDF hit these batteries highlights the relative vulnerabilities of the S-300, especially against advanced platforms like the F-35 fighter jet. 2/5

The IDF separately struck prominent defense industrial sites, such as the Parchin and Khojir complexes outside Tehran. These complexes are managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry. The regime uses these facilities to develop and manufacture advanced weapons systems, including solid-propellant ballistic missiles. 3/5

Read 7 tweets

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Oct 23

NEW | A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. (1/9)

Hezbollah’s chief media official said that Hezbollah is attempting to capture Israeli soldiers. (2/9)

The Hezbollah official said that "after the war there will be indirect negotiations to recover our prisoners,” suggesting that Hezbollah wants to capture Israeli soldiers for future negotiations. (3/9)

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