Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 20 12 tweets 6 min read
Lots to update elsewhere, but a word on the salient south of #Popasna, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the
#Ukrainian front. It guards the critical junctions of #Bakhmut and #Kostyantynivka. The Horlivka (RU) front, has not moved very much the entire war due to these heavy entrenchments. Note the two main roads south from Bakhmut that feed this front. Also note the important railway
from #Poapsna (now under RU control). Finally, two important cities, #Svitlodarsk & #Myronivskyi are behind this front. It would be very difficult for RU to attempt to take these by frontal attack. Cutting off one of these roads would be a strong blow to this front & both
would be fatal. Background behind us, note the developments. Thick red lines indicate recent developments. Thin lines one of many potential future ones. #Troitske has been captured by RU forces rendering strong UA positions in the east untenable. As I commented on previously, RU
was unlikely to concentrate an advance on Bakhmut at first, and more likely to start surrounding it in order to avoid heavy urban combat at this time & achieve the effect of capturing the hub by dominating the individual axis. The #Popasna - #Bakhmut is heavily fortified (note
that when I refer to these entrenchments, they look like this on the same road, prepared over the last 8 years by #Ukraine & visible on Google Maps, not to mention whatever has been added more recently). It is already being bypassed on the north by RU (subject of another update)
and it may do the same in the south unless resistance collapses. RU may follow the railway to cut off the E40 highway, or may reach a point closer to the Popasna Bakhmut main junction other means (including a fork south from its bypass advance north of the road). Step 2, further
down the line if all goes well for RU forces, is an advance through Vershyna & Zaitseve to cut off the T0513 highway. This would lead to the collapse of at least the Svitlodarsk, Luhanske, Myronivskyi front, if not of the entire north Horlivka front. It would also roughly achieve
about a third of the work of surrounding Bakhmut. The advance on the north salient (happening as I write) would achieve the second third (around #Soledar), and it would remain to surround Bakhmut from the west for the final third. RU forces may opt to simply assault Bakhmut.
They have taken larger towns than that thus far, but it seems to me that surrounding it in such conducive territory for the act would make more sense and avoid much death & destruction. Popasna, which is a bit smaller than Bakhmut, took a very long time to capture.
Now that it was (captured), note the localized collapse it is leading to. Actually trapping the forces on this large front would require a second pincer. A breakout from W or NW Horlivka. But smaller encirclements are still possible if the UA forces refuse to retreat (as they
have thus far). The general idea by the #Russian forces will be to advance west behind the Ukrainian fortification & not head on through them (see thread images). Hopefully will get to the arguably more interesting update on the northern (#Popasna) salient recent developments.

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More from @ZimermanErik

May 20
The #Russian counterattack in #Kharkhov aims to cut off Ukrainian troops that advanced too far north and east from the city. It is aiming for the Kharkhov - Staryi Saltiv road (T2014) and to retake a town around Cherkaksi and/or Ruski Tyshky, trapping UA forces north of that all
the way to Lyptsi. The reason this is possible is because there is a dense forest on the west flank of the Kharkhov - Lyptsi road. The troops could be fully or semi trapped because of this as there are no major, even secondary roads through the forest. Whether troop encirclements
Note the Russian shelling so far south of the front line as of yesterday. Two days ago the front was even further north, as Ternova & Rubizhne were captured by Russia in the beginning of this counteroffensive. The front is sparse with units and RU had been tactically withdrawing.
Read 7 tweets
May 20
No time for a full update on the northern #Popasna front & salient. However, note that light RU forces, perhaps airborne troops, are advancing along my preferred previously quoted route. After #Popasna's fall, I had indicated that though #Bakhmut is the obvious target, terrain,
fortification and conditions dictated a more creative #Russian advance. The road northwards was open to advance, the key target #Vrubivka, & westwards the attack needed to be on the north side of the entrenchments on the Popasna - Bakhmut road, perhaps along the railway line,
towards Soledar. This is exactly what is developing thus far. Taking my previous image, have added red rectangles to indicate the latest #Russian advances aligning with the preferred routes I had indicated. Since the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets is either stalled
Read 5 tweets
May 19
The #Russian counteroffensive in Kharkhov has begun, now that UA troops are far from the large city. More Ukrainian shelling towards the east bank, but more evidence that there is no bridgehead there. Also seems like #Ternova was recaptured by RU. Believe I was alone in reporting
the developing counterattack in #Ternova (which threatens to cut off UA forces trying to push east) couple of days ago. One thing is advancing against stiff enemy resistance (as RU is doing in the #Donbass). Another is doing so, invited by tactical enemy withdrawals.
You run the risk of being lured into a trap, at the very least, you are going along with your enemy's plans instead of disrupting them. The war in strategic terms, is getting more interesting.
Read 4 tweets
May 19
A word about the ongoing #Azovstal surrender and its effect on the #Donbass front. I believe it is no coincidence that the #Russian advance (and #Ukrainian retreat, if not collapse) has gained speed precisely as the surrender proceeds. Sure part of it is simply
the obvious combined effect on the two armies. #Russian troops' morale is raised by their long awaited victory. If even the lionized soldiers of #Azov are surrendering, certainly those lesser #Ukrainian ones in front them can be defeated as well - goes the thinking. On the other
hand, #Ukrainian troops' morale plummets as their lionized if not idolized, invincible troops at #Azovstal surrender. Not even defeated in battle, fighting to the last, as #Zelensky so badly wanted them to do, but surrendering. They want to live thinks the UA soldier holding
Read 14 tweets
May 19
The avg reply to this comment is quite disappointing in terms of basic knowledge of our political landscape. We can of course disagree w each other but it would be nice if we knew what we were disagreeing with. You can disagree with @RandPaul's (& father's) championing of liberty
. Many in fact do and may say that such extreme personal freedom is too much and that societies need the government to drastically restrict & regulate this freedom. But to deny that Rand Paul supports this freedom is to not have any idea what his beliefs are (not surprising given
the state of our media). Because if he doesn't champion liberty, then certainly no one else in the US Senate does. And neither does nearly any politician in high office on earth.
Read 5 tweets
May 19
Wish to speculate that this report is quite wrong. Various reliable sources are reporting that #Zarichne & #Khotimlya have been captured by #Ukraine, after crossing the wide (dammed) Siverskyi Donets river, Though its possible that DRG units crossed for reconnaissance & sabotage,
I don't believe there is an actual bridgehead established there. Certainly not one with armored vehicles and a supply route. I commented earlier on this:


The thread's 1st images show that as of May 18th, the bridges at Staryi Saltiv & Rubizhne are still
destroyed. Though there is much cloud cover, no visible pontoon bridge is seen elsewhere on the river. What is perhaps more likely, and caused the misreporting, is that #Ukrainian DRG units crossed at the still intact bridge (at least as of May 13th) around Starytsya & attacked
Read 14 tweets

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