Thread by @ZimermanErik

Lots to update elsewhere, but a word on the salient south of #Popasna, that often gets overlooked. Using livemap (typically a bit outdated & w a UA bias). Firstly, this salient is very important for several reasons. The blue are represents a general heavily fortified area of the

#Ukrainian front. It guards the critical junctions of #Bakhmut and #Kostyantynivka. The Horlivka (RU) front, has not moved very much the entire war due to these heavy entrenchments. Note the two main roads south from Bakhmut that feed this front. Also note the important railway

from #Poapsna (now under RU control). Finally, two important cities, #Svitlodarsk & #Myronivskyi are behind this front. It would be very difficult for RU to attempt to take these by frontal attack. Cutting off one of these roads would be a strong blow to this front & both

would be fatal. Background behind us, note the developments. Thick red lines indicate recent developments. Thin lines one of many potential future ones. #Troitske has been captured by RU forces rendering strong UA positions in the east untenable. As I commented on previously, RU

was unlikely to concentrate an advance on Bakhmut at first, and more likely to start surrounding it in order to avoid heavy urban combat at this time & achieve the effect of capturing the hub by dominating the individual axis. The #Popasna - #Bakhmut is heavily fortified (note

that when I refer to these entrenchments, they look like this on the same road, prepared over the last 8 years by #Ukraine & visible on Google Maps, not to mention whatever has been added more recently). It is already being bypassed on the north by RU (subject of another update)

and it may do the same in the south unless resistance collapses. RU may follow the railway to cut off the E40 highway, or may reach a point closer to the Popasna Bakhmut main junction other means (including a fork south from its bypass advance north of the road). Step 2, further

down the line if all goes well for RU forces, is an advance through Vershyna & Zaitseve to cut off the T0513 highway. This would lead to the collapse of at least the Svitlodarsk, Luhanske, Myronivskyi front, if not of the entire north Horlivka front. It would also roughly achieve

about a third of the work of surrounding Bakhmut. The advance on the north salient (happening as I write) would achieve the second third (around #Soledar), and it would remain to surround Bakhmut from the west for the final third. RU forces may opt to simply assault Bakhmut.

They have taken larger towns than that thus far, but it seems to me that surrounding it in such conducive territory for the act would make more sense and avoid much death & destruction. Popasna, which is a bit smaller than Bakhmut, took a very long time to capture.

Now that it was (captured), note the localized collapse it is leading to. Actually trapping the forces on this large front would require a second pincer. A breakout from W or NW Horlivka. But smaller encirclements are still possible if the UA forces refuse to retreat (as they

have thus far). The general idea by the #Russian forces will be to advance west behind the Ukrainian fortification & not head on through them (see thread images). Hopefully will get to the arguably more interesting update on the northern (#Popasna) salient recent developments.