Thread by @ZimermanErik

No time for a full update on the northern #Popasna front & salient. However, note that light RU forces, perhaps airborne troops, are advancing along my preferred previously quoted route. After #Popasna's fall, I had indicated that though #Bakhmut is the obvious target, terrain,

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1523428530960629761

fortification and conditions dictated a more creative #Russian advance. The road northwards was open to advance, the key target #Vrubivka, & westwards the attack needed to be on the north side of the entrenchments on the Popasna - Bakhmut road, perhaps along the railway line,

towards Soledar. This is exactly what is developing thus far. Taking my previous image, have added red rectangles to indicate the latest #Russian advances aligning with the preferred routes I had indicated. Since the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets is either stalled

or has failed, I would add that now it seems RU forces may cross around Ozerne & Zakitne, capture Platonivka and advance on Siversk from the west. This advance will put pressure on the previously secure flank, while the danger of crossing from the north remains. UA forces are

unlikely to be able to resist this pressure. Again, by not falling back to at least the Slovyansk - Bakhmut line, and not doing anything else to stop it, they are inviting a large encirclement of their troops in the Lysychank Severodonetsk salient.