Thread by @ZimermanErik

Please note that is also possible, that the shelling at #Kitneve is #Russian counterbattery fire, or strikes at command centers/supply hubs. As some of you pointed out, it may be UA held. Additionally a short word about the bridges.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1528730256743485441

Why haven't the bridges across the #Dnieper been hit? By either side? For example, why doesn't Ukraine hit the bridges at Kherson. Without them, certainly Russian forces could not hold out on the west bank for long. In the same manner, with even greater capabilities to do so, why

doesn't Russia hit the bridges spanning the river across the whole country. While western Ukraine is open to the world - true it is cut off from the Black Sea directly but through its western border with Poland, Romania etc it's wide open by road & rail - eastern Ukraine if

severed from the west (by bridge destruction) is completely isolated. It only borders Russia, Russian held territory (& a blockaded Black sea beyond that) and Belarus. Destroying the bridges would immediately be similar to cutting off all Ukrainian troops in the east. So why not?

The short answer is that even war has its rules. Like two guys in a bar fight who innately don't kick each other where it hurts, nor gouge out eyes or cut each other with a broken beer bottle, there are mutually observed levels of combat. Firstly if Russia successfully did this,

it would mean not only cutting off troops but millions of civilians from all supplies. It would be forced to allow food and medicine through (Belarus or its Black Sea ports for example), which means it would be cutting off UA troops from ammunition & weapons but not from food &

medicine. Secondly, this feat is much more difficult than it sounds. Sure some bridges are easy enough to destroy. But others are the tops of dams. Destroying every connection across the Dnieper would cause mass flooding and destruction to the civilians along the river.

The #Khakhovka dam which doubles as the crossing at Kozatske near #Kherson is a perfect example. #Ukraine would be very wear of unleashing such havoc and destruction in the cities and territory it claims to want to liberate. The war may yet to get to this point where at least

some of the bridges across the #Dnieper are targeted by either side, but at this point they have been mostly considered "out of bounds". So while at the start of this alleged Ukrainian offensive, one may think that the bridges at Kherson should be the first targets, UA is

unlikely to do so, especially since besides all of the aforementioned, it would be signaling that it is not serious about crossing those same bridges to liberate the rest of its claimed territory.

#UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar