Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 23 10 tweets 5 min read
Please note that is also possible, that the shelling at #Kitneve is #Russian counterbattery fire, or strikes at command centers/supply hubs. As some of you pointed out, it may be UA held. Additionally a short word about the bridges.
Why haven't the bridges across the #Dnieper been hit? By either side? For example, why doesn't Ukraine hit the bridges at Kherson. Without them, certainly Russian forces could not hold out on the west bank for long. In the same manner, with even greater capabilities to do so, why
doesn't Russia hit the bridges spanning the river across the whole country. While western Ukraine is open to the world - true it is cut off from the Black Sea directly but through its western border with Poland, Romania etc it's wide open by road & rail - eastern Ukraine if
severed from the west (by bridge destruction) is completely isolated. It only borders Russia, Russian held territory (& a blockaded Black sea beyond that) and Belarus. Destroying the bridges would immediately be similar to cutting off all Ukrainian troops in the east. So why not?
The short answer is that even war has its rules. Like two guys in a bar fight who innately don't kick each other where it hurts, nor gouge out eyes or cut each other with a broken beer bottle, there are mutually observed levels of combat. Firstly if Russia successfully did this,
it would mean not only cutting off troops but millions of civilians from all supplies. It would be forced to allow food and medicine through (Belarus or its Black Sea ports for example), which means it would be cutting off UA troops from ammunition & weapons but not from food &
medicine. Secondly, this feat is much more difficult than it sounds. Sure some bridges are easy enough to destroy. But others are the tops of dams. Destroying every connection across the Dnieper would cause mass flooding and destruction to the civilians along the river.
The #Khakhovka dam which doubles as the crossing at Kozatske near #Kherson is a perfect example. #Ukraine would be very wear of unleashing such havoc and destruction in the cities and territory it claims to want to liberate. The war may yet to get to this point where at least
some of the bridges across the #Dnieper are targeted by either side, but at this point they have been mostly considered "out of bounds". So while at the start of this alleged Ukrainian offensive, one may think that the bridges at Kherson should be the first targets, UA is
unlikely to do so, especially since besides all of the aforementioned, it would be signaling that it is not serious about crossing those same bridges to liberate the rest of its claimed territory.

#UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Erik Zimerman

Erik Zimerman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ZimermanErik

May 24
Here we have it folks (suggest reading the entire prev thread for context). As I speculated, the #Ukrainian forces, with or without permission, withdrew from the #Svitlodarsk front, with fortifications that had held for 8 years. The city is in #Russian hands. Geolocated here. ImageImageImageImage
This previously overlooked southern salient of #Popasna, rather than the northern one, was discussed earlier in this thread and in deed has fallen much faster, due to its inherent danger (to UA forces) and greater tactical vulnerability. By withdrawing,

the #Ukrainian forces avoided certain encirclement and another mass surrender event. The two important cities, the dam and its power plant however are now in Russian hands. Was the UA withdrawal call correct? Well here is reported collaboration of the UA General Staff:
Read 4 tweets
May 24
Speaking of the difficulty of blowing up dams (& bridges on top of them) & whether #Ukraine would cause such flooding & havoc on its own settlements, I guess we have the answer. #Ukrainian forces attempted to blow up the Vuhlehirske dam on the #Luhan / Lugan river. Geolocated blw
Destroying the dam would have caused great damage and likely death in #Svitlodarsk & surrounding settlements. This was done to slow down the Russian advance as the UA front here is collapsing. As we discussed earlier, Svitlodarsk & Myronivksyi were in danger of being cut off. ImageImageImage
From the southeast, these cities were protected with entrenchments such as these two facing the RU forces (& these are just what existed before the war). This important front & cities could be taken by RU forces by an advance on their rear to cut the E40

ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
May 24
One of the most puzzling reports of the war thus far: For days now we have heard about a #Ukrainian bridgehead east of the river. We keep hearing UA has captured #Zarichne & #Metalivka. Also that they are holding Verkhnia Pysarivka on the way to strategic #Vovchansk.
While I was quite skeptical, the situation is no clearer after quite a few days. The reporting is everywhere with the likes of this for example:

This is wishful reporting (on their part). There is no bridge and in my view, no bridgehead either.
New Sat images confirm for us, as of May 23 and as I suspected, that there is no bridge anywhere. The bridge at Staryi Saltiv is still down. There is no bridge anywhere near the captured villages in the wide (dammed) part of the river. Neither is there one further north. ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
May 23
Yesterday, #Russian sources released intel that #Ukraine was planning a large offensive of 32 BTGs (~20k men) in the #Kherson region. UA's supply lines here are much shorter & stronger than in Donbass & RU's air superiority much less. It seems to have started in the last 3 hours.
Being able to push back Russia east across the Dnieper would be a great achievement by UA forces. On the other hand, even making Russia divert forces from the Donbass to hold the line would be helpful to #Ukraine. Since they have so much trouble getting men & supplies to the east
and in fact so many units now that refuse to fight in the east, this tactically would make sense for Ukraine. The only suspicion comes from the announcement yesterday by Russian sources. If it indeed it was a leaked secret, than the Russians have a heads up, but it seems UA
Read 15 tweets
May 20
The #Russian counterattack in #Kharkhov aims to cut off Ukrainian troops that advanced too far north and east from the city. It is aiming for the Kharkhov - Staryi Saltiv road (T2014) and to retake a town around Cherkaksi and/or Ruski Tyshky, trapping UA forces north of that all
the way to Lyptsi. The reason this is possible is because there is a dense forest on the west flank of the Kharkhov - Lyptsi road. The troops could be fully or semi trapped because of this as there are no major, even secondary roads through the forest. Whether troop encirclements
Note the Russian shelling so far south of the front line as of yesterday. Two days ago the front was even further north, as Ternova & Rubizhne were captured by Russia in the beginning of this counteroffensive. The front is sparse with units and RU had been tactically withdrawing.
Read 7 tweets
May 20
No time for a full update on the northern #Popasna front & salient. However, note that light RU forces, perhaps airborne troops, are advancing along my preferred previously quoted route. After #Popasna's fall, I had indicated that though #Bakhmut is the obvious target, terrain,
fortification and conditions dictated a more creative #Russian advance. The road northwards was open to advance, the key target #Vrubivka, & westwards the attack needed to be on the north side of the entrenchments on the Popasna - Bakhmut road, perhaps along the railway line,
towards Soledar. This is exactly what is developing thus far. Taking my previous image, have added red rectangles to indicate the latest #Russian advances aligning with the preferred routes I had indicated. Since the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets is either stalled
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(