Thread by @ZimermanErik

One of the most puzzling reports of the war thus far: For days now we have heard about a #Ukrainian bridgehead east of the river. We keep hearing UA has captured #Zarichne & #Metalivka. Also that they are holding Verkhnia Pysarivka on the way to strategic #Vovchansk.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1526754752717103109

While I was quite skeptical, the situation is no clearer after quite a few days. The reporting is everywhere with the likes of this for example:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1528783531962511361

This is wishful reporting (on their part). There is no bridge and in my view, no bridgehead either.

New Sat images confirm for us, as of May 23 and as I suspected, that there is no bridge anywhere. The bridge at Staryi Saltiv is still down. There is no bridge anywhere near the captured villages in the wide (dammed) part of the river. Neither is there one further north.

The bridge at Rubizhne is also likewise still as blown as it was previously. But as you can see, the one further north, which you can get to through the forest near Starytsia is still up.

If UA forces got across at all in this sector I still believe it can only be in one of 3 scenarios (or a combination of them). 1. Recon units (ie DGR) just ferried across with small boats. Guarded by the wide river, villages such as Zarichne were completely void of Russian troops

and so "captured" them technically. They may have been trying to recon & prepare for an actual bridgehead, or move south or north for a specific target. For example, Vovchansk as a crucial logistics hub in the north or to hit Prymorske from the back to link up with the offensive

from Chuhuiv. It may also have been enough that they simply sever this supply artery running north south along the east bank of the river. 2. A crossing was somehow done in the marshlands around Rubizhne, with the obvious target Vovchansk. Crossing here with light forces is

easier as much of the wetland is dry (ironically). We saw intense artillery here & fires back on the 13th. But there is no permanent crossing that remains here either, even over the narrow waterways. 3. As UA forces like to do they may have made their way north through the forest

and used the standing bridge at Starytsia (or Buhruvatka) and bypassed Russian forces. Vovchansk is just a stone throw away from here. Any of these or a combination may have occurred. #1 is only the lightest of forces. 2 is in the middle, and 3 could have included some heavier

components as it utilized a standing peacetime bridge. In any case, no supply line can exist now across the river. Russian forces control the existing bridge far north and would have "plugged" the gap they may have left open for the UA adventure. Most importantly, Rubizhne,

or large parts of it were retaken in the Russian counteroffensive. This blocks access to the narrow waterways in the north & in the delta. There is no bridge of any type in the rest of the sector. Ferrying supplies, especially under artillery fire cannot support the bridgehead.

Any #Ukrainian troops on the east bank in this sector, if they ever were there, have either returned back or are completely cut off. The east bank is deep within Russian territory, and while it was lightly or completely not guarded previously, there are main highways leading

to the area and any Russian push there would defeat whatever light forces may have crossed. Despite this, and despite any additional confirmation that any of these towns are held by Ukraine, the reporting on this crossing continues. It is no wonder that it does, because such a

feat if true would be very impressive and alter the strategic situation on this front. It is already lightly manned by Russia, as it focuses on the Donbass, yet major road and rail lines run through it. Having to guard Vovchansk or the any of the major supply lines on this flank

would require an investment of Russian forces that RU can not easily afford at this juncture. It would also show a creativity, initiative and maneuver that we have not seen UA forces display until now. Because of all of this, it somewhat amazes me that many analysts have simply

reported this Ukrainian bridgehead as fact on the east bank of the river in the Kharkhov front. Not only as fact but also as a passing detail of not much import. Other than a few pro-UA ones who, realizing its importance, keep enthusiastically enlarging the bridgehead daily.

At this stage I cannot confirm for you exactly what forces if any are at Zarichne Metalivka and others in the area, but I can confirm that as I suspected, there is no established crossing at any point in the sector. The bridgehead in my opinion, is pure fantasy. We shall see.