Thread by @ZimermanErik

Speaking of the difficulty of blowing up dams (& bridges on top of them) & whether #Ukraine would cause such flooding & havoc on its own settlements, I guess we have the answer. #Ukrainian forces attempted to blow up the Vuhlehirske dam on the #Luhan / Lugan river. Geolocated blw

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1528748572598050816

Destroying the dam would have caused great damage and likely death in #Svitlodarsk & surrounding settlements. This was done to slow down the Russian advance as the UA front here is collapsing. As we discussed earlier, Svitlodarsk & Myronivksyi were in danger of being cut off.

From the southeast, these cities were protected with entrenchments such as these two facing the RU forces (& these are just what existed before the war). This important front & cities could be taken by RU forces by an advance on their rear to cut the E40

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1527480429019799552

highway, the only supply route. This became possible with the taking of Popasna and subsequently of Troitske. As we have discussed before, while trying to outflank or encircle it is imperative to continue the pressure from the main frontal line. That way the enemy has the choice

of standing his ground firmly, and being encircled, or attempt to reposition or withdraw and see the main front collapse. This is what we are seeing in this case. The UA forces around Svitlodarsk are in no mood for being the protagonists in Azovstal 2.0 and started to withdraw.

This has weakened the front and so Myronivskyi was captured, and RU forces (reportedly including Wagner units) are now fighting in Luganske. The withdrawing UA units blew a bridge across the Luhan river & as we have seen tried to blow the dam as well. The RU advance is not

a frontal attack but not exactly from the rear either. These forces that had been fighting in Popasna, rather than advancing behind the cities along the fortified ridge line, or along the railway line a bit further north (dominated by the entrenched ridge line) advanced towards

NE flank, on the south side of the Luhan river. This was possible by the capture of Troitske which itself was possible due to the capture of Popasna. An attack from this flank quickly started the UA withdrawal. It remains to be seen if UA forces completely left Svitlodarsk, but

if so RU forces will be able to move NW along the main highway (supported by a pincer from the NE from Popasna along the ridge or railway). From here RU forces will be able to move west as we discussed in the earlier thread & cut off the T0513 main road. With this & the E40 (M03)

cut off, this would precipitate the collapse of the northern Horlivka front. Alternatively or in parallel RU forces could move north towards the T-054 main road & cut off the strong entrenchments that other RU forces are facing directly west of Popasna around Plypchatyne, linking

up with the airborne effort around Soledar & further contributing to the surrounding of or assault on Bakhmut. The UA (or the UA forces) made the correct choice here (perhaps not in trying to blow up a dam), as painful as the loss of these important small cities will be for its

pride, it's nothing compared to their loss plus another mass surrender. The Svitlodarsk front was perfect-made for an encirclement, due to the large bodies of water, fed by one main road. Cutting them off and surrounding them completely was only a matter of a few more days.

If they did not all withdraw, which is the first time we see this happening in the mature phase of the war, then we may yet see an encirclement and surrender here as well.