1) @Reuters report that Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko has apparently suggested Russia is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukrainian ports, in return for the lifting of some sanctions #blockade#UkraineWarreuters.com/world/europe/r…
2) This is not the first such offer made by Russia. @SamChambers of @splash_247 reported another in March, which resulted in no ships sailing, & a different result this time would be a considerable surprise. splash247.com/no-sign-shippi…
3) Perhaps the key difference, however, is the apparent linkage of shipping movements to sanctions relief, tacitly admitting, perhaps for the 1st time, that there is actually a #blockade in place, & it may take more than raising the issue of Ukrainian mining to spin that away.
5) Similarly, this is not the first time Turkey has offered a #maritime solution to a humanitarian crisis during the #UkraineWar, having offered to send ships to evacuate civilians from the port of Mariupol at the start of April. This again came to nothing hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-can-con…
6) While minesweepers of the Turkish Navy have been monitoring the waters near the Bosphorus for stray, floating mines that threaten the vital trade routes in the western Black Sea. reuters.com/world/middle-e…
7) Controlling the entrance to the Black Sea, if anything happens to end, or ease the #blockade, Turkey will be crucial, but despite @NATO membership & the 2nd most powerful navy in the area, relations with the two sides mean it is extremely unlikely Turkey will forcibly break it
8) It remains to be seen if anything comes of this initiative & expectations should not be high, though Turkey is also reportedly one of the countries more exposed to the #blockade's effects, & so there may yet be domestic pressure to make something happen reuters.com/markets/asia/r…
9) Italy🇮🇹 is the latest country to announce an effort to help end the #blockade of #Ukraine's🇺🇦 Black Sea ports. Anything here appears to be in the very earliest stages, however, as Prime Minister Draghi appears yet to speak to @ZelenskyyUa or @RTErdoganreuters.com/markets/europe…
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1) Excellent #UkraineWar#thread🧵 by @DAlperovitch on Russia's de facto maritime blockade of Ukraine's southern coast & some of the difficulties involved in lifting it.
2) For more on Russia's de facto maritime blockade of Ukraine's southern coast & the naval situation from the start of the war, significant elements of which still hold, do check out this #thread🧵 from March
Interesting @ForeignPolicy piece by Emily Ferris of @ISS_RUSI looking at Russia's reliance on & troubles with rail transport in its #UkraineWar
However, it's worth bearing in mind, particularly amid further talk about Odesa & Mykolaiv, that Russia also has a port opening problem.
Probably the first port Russian forces took in the first days of the #UkraineWar was Berdyansk. The first ships to enter arrived in the middle of March & around ten days later they appeared to have cleared just two berths, whereupon the Saratov was sunk.
It would appear that since the loss of the Saratov, Berdyansk has either not, or been little used. Whether this is due to the sunken hulk of the Saratov & other damage, or ongoing issues with the port's security from further attack, or both, is unclear.
The @USNavy aircraft carrier @USSHARRYSTRUMAN pulling into Trieste in Italy marks something of a lull what has been a huge amount of naval activity to reinforce & reassure @NATO allies since the start of the #UkraineWar
1) Okay, since "coastal-defence equipment" for #Ukraine has been mentioned by the British Defence Secretary, a few days late & to only slightly more than the usual lack of public demand (😉), a little #thread🧵with a few thoughts on what that might mean. #UkraineWar
2) For those interested in the wider context of what broadly still appears to be the state of play in the naval war in the Black Sea, this #thread🧵 posted a month ago, should still be of some use (though the situation ashore may have changed somewhat).
3) The key questions, therefore, are :
a) What might be supplied (predominantly in the British context, since that is who is making the suggestion), &
b) What effect might this have?
Inevitably, perhaps, 1st thoughts tend to turn to anti-ship missiles.
While a P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft of @Forsvaret_no tracks the Russian Navy Northern Fleet, including the big, nuclear-powered battlecruiser Peter the Great, as it deploys to intercept & observe #ColdResponse22
1) An excellent #thread🧵 by @WarintheFuture on the oft neglected southern front in the #UkraineWar & its importance, covering many aspects ashore, so here's a little additional #thread🧵 looking into some of the naval & maritime aspects that hopefully further enrich the picture.
2) As @WarintheFuture points out Ukraine's maritime south is economically vital to the country, handling 60% of its exports & 50% of its imports while containing a number of very large & important industrial centres, not least its 3rd largest city - Odesa.
3) So what has happened to this vital, maritime trade since the start of the #UkraineWar? Well, put bluntly - as @MarineTraffic demonstrates here - it has stopped. Nothing is coming out to help Ukraine's economy, & nothing is coming in to aid the fight.