Claim 1: For over two years, this issue [Protocol] has been ignored by the EU, by London, by Brussels. “There hasn’t been solutions put forward” [17:45]
Check: UKGov & EU Commission in past year alone have published the following...
5/
Claim 2. "About 90% of the Protocol isn’t even in place yet" [18:09]
Check: Here's an overview of the articles of the Protocol @PostBrexitGovNI
All of them are in force but it's the detail of the 7 annexes that brings the impact; they contain the EU rules that apply in NI
9/
In principle all these are in effect, but there were unilateral declarations negotiated & agreed at Joint Committee meeting 17 Dec 2020.
These are unusual in intl law but were agreed "to ensure an orderly, consensual approach to... implementation” ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
10/
They're known as grace periods 👼
Here’s a summary of the big 3 from @commonslibrary 👇
+ There are elements UKG hasn't implemented, e.g. customs declarations on parcels
Technical UK-EU talks since last Sept hv in theory been trying to find soft landing out of grace periods 11/
Claim 3. "When you look at what this means if there was to be full implementation...
Look at the EU report of June 2021... 🛃
Personal luggage would be checked... 🧳
Huge amount of goods would not be able to come here without huge swathes of paperwork & costs..." 🚫[18:20]
12/
Check: There was no EU report June 21 of this nature.
Or else the pre-TCA EU guidance of Nov/Dec 2020 on travelling between the EU & UK after Brexit ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…
From these we see -
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In some areas, e.g. customs, EU rules apply for GB into NI mvnt
For details of what applies now follow this link👇
All commercial goods must be declared but no checks & controls on personal baggage, except that cash over £10,000 should be declared💰 gov.uk/guidance/tradi…
14/
Claim 4. It would "hit like a tsunami in the Autumn if we don’t get this addressed". Costs will grow. Choice will be limited [18:40]
Check: Thanks to UK-EU agmt in Sept 21 to keep talking, the grace periods are continuing to be in effect with no deadline, even this Autumn.
15/
If they end without agmt & there's full implementation without mitigations, there wd be a rise in costs in some products, mainly agri-food because of incrd cert requirements.
Choice of most products wd not be affected, tho chilled [not frozen] GB meat products wd be banned.
16/
I queried the 'tsunami' phrase cos many retailers hv adapted to maintain supplies & reduce friction already e.g. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
Claim 6."The medicines issue still isn’t sorted out" [19:20]
"Not able to get access to meds from...GB" [33:22]
"still waiting on resolution from EU on life saving meds for NI" [34:42]
Claim 7. Somebody with a guide dog is not able to bring that dog from GB to NI [33:18]
Check: GB-NI pet mvnt is under a grace period.
Never a ban, but GB pets wd need animal health cert.
EU proposed fix for guide dogs June'21, working on details w/NI 20/ researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
Claim 8. The mechanisms set up in order to negotiate how the Protocol could work are just not coming together [19:48]
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.
47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.
What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.
Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.
2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.
This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇
41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree. 3/8