Katy Hayward Profile picture
May 28 23 tweets 16 min read
*Thank you* for every tweet & supportive msg re: the slurs on my academic integrity

I'm not important, but information, evidence & facts are.

In honour of that, here's a🧵correcting false claims in @bbcquestiontime on #Protocol [16:22-38:50] #bbcqt
1/22
bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod…
There were statements made that some will disagree with or view v. differently.

& Each panellist @RobertBuckland @peterkyle @johnfinucane @little_pengelly @naomi_long made some statements that were true.

No need for me to repeat those ones, with two interesting exceptions…
2/
@little_pengelly claimed @allianceparty had called for "rigorous implementation" of the Protocol [33:05]

As @naomi_long said, it was re: UKG previous intention to break intl law in Sept 20

NB the phrase was used by *4* party leaders & @MarosSefcovic
3/
reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
I also factchecked @johnfinucane [24:38] claim that @J_Donaldson_MP said customs controls don’t change constitutional status.

Here is the clip of him saying it, & talking about potential opportunities for NI from the Protocol.
#spotlightni [Mar 2020]
4/
Now onto the claims that proved untrue🤧

Claim 1: For over two years, this issue [Protocol] has been ignored by the EU, by London, by Brussels. “There hasn’t been solutions put forward” [17:45]

Check: UKGov & EU Commission in past year alone have published the following...
5/
...on problems & potential #solutions:

21 July 2021 UKG Command Paper assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

27 July 2021 European Commission revised paper containing examples of flexibilities

ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

+ 'non-paper' on medicines ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

6/
+ 27 July 2021 EU non-paper on SPS measures
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

13 October 2021 EU 'non-paper' on customs
ec.europa.eu/info/files/pro…

& SPS [agri/food]
ec.europa.eu/info/files/pro…

medicines &
ec.europa.eu/info/files/pro…

& stakeholder engagement.
ec.europa.eu/info/files/pro…
...

7/
+ In Feb 2022 the EU presented #factsheets on its proposals:
ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/…

In April 22 it presented a factsheet on the solution found to medicines
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

In May 22 @trussliz made a statement on problems & another solution -
gov.uk/government/spe…
8/
Claim 2. "About 90% of the Protocol isn’t even in place yet" [18:09]

Check: Here's an overview of the articles of the Protocol @PostBrexitGovNI

All of them are in force but it's the detail of the 7 annexes that brings the impact; they contain the EU rules that apply in NI

9/
In principle all these are in effect, but there were unilateral declarations negotiated & agreed at Joint Committee meeting 17 Dec 2020.

These are unusual in intl law but were agreed "to ensure an orderly, consensual approach to... implementation”
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
10/
They're known as grace periods 👼

Here’s a summary of the big 3 from @commonslibrary 👇
+ There are elements UKG hasn't implemented, e.g. customs declarations on parcels

Technical UK-EU talks since last Sept hv in theory been trying to find soft landing out of grace periods
11/
Claim 3. "When you look at what this means if there was to be full implementation...
Look at the EU report of June 2021... 🛃
Personal luggage would be checked... 🧳
Huge amount of goods would not be able to come here without huge swathes of paperwork & costs..." 🚫[18:20]

12/
Check: There was no EU report June 21 of this nature.

The best guess is either its technical note of Apr 20
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

Or else the pre-TCA EU guidance of Nov/Dec 2020 on travelling between the EU & UK after Brexit
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

From these we see -
13/
In some areas, e.g. customs, EU rules apply for GB into NI mvnt

For details of what applies now follow this link👇

All commercial goods must be declared but no checks & controls on personal baggage, except that cash over £10,000 should be declared💰
gov.uk/guidance/tradi…
14/
Claim 4. It would "hit like a tsunami in the Autumn if we don’t get this addressed". Costs will grow. Choice will be limited [18:40]

Check: Thanks to UK-EU agmt in Sept 21 to keep talking, the grace periods are continuing to be in effect with no deadline, even this Autumn.

15/
If they end without agmt & there's full implementation without mitigations, there wd be a rise in costs in some products, mainly agri-food because of incrd cert requirements.

Choice of most products wd not be affected, tho chilled [not frozen] GB meat products wd be banned.

16/
I queried the 'tsunami' phrase cos many retailers hv adapted to maintain supplies & reduce friction already e.g. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

& some local producers are doing well replacing GB products
belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexi…

But flexibilities are needed where biz can't adjust.

17/
Claim 5. "£500m per year spent on paperwork by the Trader Support Service" [19:10]

Check: TSS was estd by UKG as customs service for NI biz bringing in GB goods. 2yr contract to Fujitsu-led consortium.

An FOI revealed TSS overall cost to be c.£327m.
whatdotheyknow.com/request/737685…
18/
Claim 6."The medicines issue still isn’t sorted out" [19:20]
"Not able to get access to meds from...GB" [33:22]
"still waiting on resolution from EU on life saving meds for NI" [34:42]

Check: 12Apr'22 EU changed its legislation to ensure GB-NI supply
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
19/
Claim 7. Somebody with a guide dog is not able to bring that dog from GB to NI [33:18]

Check: GB-NI pet mvnt is under a grace period.
Never a ban, but GB pets wd need animal health cert.
EU proposed fix for guide dogs June'21, working on details w/NI
20/
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
Claim 8. The mechanisms set up in order to negotiate how the Protocol could work are just not coming together [19:48]

Check: Here's an overview @PostBrexitGovNI of the mechanisms. JCWG meets monthly & communicates weekly.
+ my critique of their 1st yr
21/
cambridge.org/core/books/law… Diagram of Joint committe, specialised committee, and joint Meetings and statements of the Joint CommitteeMeetings and statements of the specialised committee
And that, as they say, is that 🙌

Apologies for v.long thread. Worth doing properly.
Thank you for following it.

If you want info, analysis & updates on the #Protocol, this is the website for you (H/T @DPhinnemore @LisaClaireWhit1 @BillyMeloAraujo)
qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…
22/22
Happy to correct this.

DG Sante performed an inspection of customs & SPS controls on goods entering NI. Here is the report.

For some reason it wasn't much publicised.
ec.europa.eu/food/audits-an…

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More from @hayward_katy

May 26
Latest N.Ireland Life&Times #NILTSurvey results are out!📊

NI’s leading social attitudes survey.
Randomised sampling.
Individual interviewing.
1,397 respondents.

All results here: ark.ac.uk/nilt/

Here's 6 findings on political attitudes to pique your interest -
1/8 Image
First up, everyone’s talking about the Belfast/Good Fri Agmt these days. What does NI really think about it?

2/3 see it as still the best basis for governing NI

Most want further implementation (Bill of Rts, Civic Forum)

Most want some reform too e.g. Petition of Concern
2/8 Image
Now then what about that other international agreement of some consequence for N.Ireland?

Knowledge of the #Protocol rose from 47% in 2020 to 65% in 2021.

Support for it rose too.

In 2021 people became more opinionated about the Protocol. Read our @ARK_info report for more
3/8 Chart showing 1/3 think Pro...
Read 8 tweets
May 4
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.

There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.

Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️

1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?

What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?

Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶

Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳

What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
Serious concerns about growth of executive power & weakening rule of #law & #humanrights protection are closer to home than Hungary or Poland ⚠️

I'm proud to be part of the UK Constitution Monitoring Group, whose 2nd report is issued today @Con_Soc
👇
1/5 consoc.org.uk/publications/t…
In summary -
UK govt intent on reducing already-insufficient checks and balances on ministerial power.
2/5
Raft of new bills show nature of the UK Govt's agenda for constitutional reform.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 22, 2021
The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish

But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?

We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10 Cover of Border After Brexit report
This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.

The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.

Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.

2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.

It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…

And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.

The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.

3/10 Contents pages of the report
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2, 2021
My wee book on the Irish border is out!

Inc. Irish #borders of land, sea, mind, & (gawd 'elp us) tech

Endorsed by its subject, @BorderIrish 🤩
the most sound & stand-out social scientists & journalists in GB & Ireland 😍
& the Primate of All-Ireland 😇

us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/what…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 30, 2021
So the #Protocol is the talk of the town today, but what do the people most affected by it actually think about it?!

We @PostBrexitGovNI thought that was worth finding out. So we’re running polls in NI with @LucidTalk 📊

Here’s the 2nd one –

qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…

1/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.

47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.

What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.

Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.

2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.

This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇

41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree.
3/8
Read 8 tweets

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