Last week was a significant (and worrying) one for those who watch U.S./Western interactions with #China and the #UnitedNations, for three reasons.

[1/5]
First, and most widely discussed, the High Commissioner for Human Rights's visit to #China turned into a (100% predictable) public relations mess. [2/5] ft.com/content/6ca09f…
Second, #China joined #Russia in vetoing a U.S. sanctions resolution on #DPRK, signalling a break with previous (uneasy) accommodations among the P5 on North Korean issues. [3/5] dw.com/en/china-russi…
Third (predictably but still unfortunately) #China also refused to sign onto a #UNSC statement on #Myanmar, killing it. [4/5] irrawaddy.com/news/burma/un-…
Overall, it has been notable that #China has *not* been too assertive against the #West during the #UkraineWar (despite its overall alignment with Russia). It has in fact tried to abstain on 🇺🇦-related resolutions across @UN.

But deeper strains continue to surface. [5/5]

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More from @RichardGowan1

Apr 22
So UNSG Antonio Guterres is going to #Moscow and he will see Putin.

This is a positive step, as Putin was not taking the SG's calls after he condemned the #RussianInvasion of #Ukraine.

But the trip raises some tricky issues. [1/6] reuters.com/world/un-chief…
First, the SG should be very careful to avoid any "grip and grin" moments with Putin and Lavrov.

Lavrov tricked the @ICRC's experienced chief into an apparently jolly handshake in March, and will doubtless want to do the same with Guterres. [2/6] euractiv.com/section/global…
More substantively, the SG will need to have some clear "asks" and ideas for Russia. Options might include:

* Improving humanitarian access;
* Relief for civilians in #Mariupol;
* Suggesting possible frameworks for peace talks (but without making predictions on substance). [3/6]
Read 6 tweets
Feb 22
Final thoughts on tonight's #UNSC meeting on #Ukraine:

(1) Western UNSC members were tough (lots of talk of non-UN sanctions) but holding onto last chance for diplomatic way out. [1/5]
(2) @RussiaUN didn't have anything of note to add to #Putin's speech earlier today.

At least Nebenzia chaired the whole event properly as UNSC president. [2/5]
(3) Western UNSC members framed Russia's actions as an attack on the UN Charter and international system.

Non-Western members split on this framing in a very interesting way... [3/5]
Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
India is first non-NATO country to speak on #Ukraine in #UNSC tonight. Lots of talk about the need for diplomacy, de-escalation, etc. But no reference to Ukraine's sovereignty or condemnation of Russia.
Brazil expresses "extreme concern" about Ukraine in #UNSC, and calls for diplomacy for peace. Does raise sovereign equality of states and territorial integrity.

Avoids using the word "Russia".
Mexico (3rd non-NATO speaker on Ukraine in UNSC) does call out Russia -- a little more gingerly than NATO members but by name -- and talks about Ukrainian sovereignty. Notably firmer than India and Brazil, although also pivoting to diplomacy and dialogue.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
Depressing report on the state of @OSCE_SMM from @guardian. As it notes, the mission has always faced criticism from all sides in #Ukraine, but... [1/4] theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…
... as I noted @CFR_CPA in December, @OSCE_SMM is also (for good or ill) a model for the sort of peace operations that are possible in conflicts involving major powers. [2/4] cfr.org/report/major-p…
The case for @OSCE_SMM was well-made in a recent article by @UmlandAndreas and co-authors that I cited @CFR_CPA . [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Last week, @columlynch published a very good piece @ForeignPolicy about how the #UNSC might respond to a Russian offensive against #Ukraine.

Colum kindly quoted me, and I wanted to add a few points to the article (mainly for @UN wonks).

A 🧵 [1/12] foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/14/bid…
There have been snarky responses to @columlynch's piece accusing anyone who thinks @UN can help #Ukraine are "clowns" etc.

But as I said "Nobody actually thinks that the Council will have a significant substantive role in negotiating a conclusion to a new war in Ukraine." [2/12]
.@USUN, @RussiaUN and other Council members will use the #UNSC to try to shape political narrative around #Ukraine.

For example, Russia recently held an informal SC meeting on threats to minorities in the #Baltics and #Ukraine.

See @SCRtweets: [3/12] securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/20…
Read 12 tweets
Jan 17
Good to see @SandraBreka make a full-throated defence of EU style multilateralism @UN @ProSyn, though @antonioguterres and advisers might not put it this way. There are grumblings around UNHQ that "Our Common Agenda" is "too European" its priorities. [1/5]
project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-…
But if @PoliticoRyan is right and Angela Merkel will play a leading role in "Our Common Agenda" follow-up, it is going to be hard to deny that the EU and its vision of multilateralism are pretty central to the project. [2/5] politico.com/newsletters/gl…
We have certainly seen @antonioguterres drawing closer to the EU in recent years, as symbolised by his meeting with the EU Council last summer (Cc. @FamaNelMondo @CrisisGroup). [3/5] crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
Read 5 tweets

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