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May 30 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Last week was a significant (and worrying) one for those who watch U.S./Western interactions with #China and the #UnitedNations, for three reasons.

[1/5]
First, and most widely discussed, the High Commissioner for Human Rights's visit to #China turned into a (100% predictable) public relations mess. [2/5] ft.com/content/6ca09f…
Second, #China joined #Russia in vetoing a U.S. sanctions resolution on #DPRK, signalling a break with previous (uneasy) accommodations among the P5 on North Korean issues. [3/5] dw.com/en/china-russi…
Third (predictably but still unfortunately) #China also refused to sign onto a #UNSC statement on #Myanmar, killing it. [4/5] irrawaddy.com/news/burma/un-…
Overall, it has been notable that #China has *not* been too assertive against the #West during the #UkraineWar (despite its overall alignment with Russia). It has in fact tried to abstain on 🇺🇦-related resolutions across @UN.

But deeper strains continue to surface. [5/5]

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More from @RichardGowan1

Richard Gowan Profile picture
Apr 22
So UNSG Antonio Guterres is going to #Moscow and he will see Putin.

This is a positive step, as Putin was not taking the SG's calls after he condemned the #RussianInvasion of #Ukraine.

But the trip raises some tricky issues. [1/6] reuters.com/world/un-chief…
First, the SG should be very careful to avoid any "grip and grin" moments with Putin and Lavrov.

Lavrov tricked the @ICRC's experienced chief into an apparently jolly handshake in March, and will doubtless want to do the same with Guterres. [2/6] euractiv.com/section/global…
More substantively, the SG will need to have some clear "asks" and ideas for Russia. Options might include:

* Improving humanitarian access;
* Relief for civilians in #Mariupol;
* Suggesting possible frameworks for peace talks (but without making predictions on substance). [3/6]
Read 6 tweets
Richard Gowan Profile picture
Feb 22
Final thoughts on tonight's #UNSC meeting on #Ukraine:

(1) Western UNSC members were tough (lots of talk of non-UN sanctions) but holding onto last chance for diplomatic way out. [1/5]
(2) @RussiaUN didn't have anything of note to add to #Putin's speech earlier today.

At least Nebenzia chaired the whole event properly as UNSC president. [2/5]
(3) Western UNSC members framed Russia's actions as an attack on the UN Charter and international system.

Non-Western members split on this framing in a very interesting way... [3/5]
Read 5 tweets
Richard Gowan Profile picture
Feb 22
India is first non-NATO country to speak on #Ukraine in #UNSC tonight. Lots of talk about the need for diplomacy, de-escalation, etc. But no reference to Ukraine's sovereignty or condemnation of Russia.
Brazil expresses "extreme concern" about Ukraine in #UNSC, and calls for diplomacy for peace. Does raise sovereign equality of states and territorial integrity.

Avoids using the word "Russia".
Mexico (3rd non-NATO speaker on Ukraine in UNSC) does call out Russia -- a little more gingerly than NATO members but by name -- and talks about Ukrainian sovereignty. Notably firmer than India and Brazil, although also pivoting to diplomacy and dialogue.
Read 10 tweets
Richard Gowan Profile picture
Feb 21
Depressing report on the state of @OSCE_SMM from @guardian. As it notes, the mission has always faced criticism from all sides in #Ukraine, but... [1/4] theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…
... as I noted @CFR_CPA in December, @OSCE_SMM is also (for good or ill) a model for the sort of peace operations that are possible in conflicts involving major powers. [2/4] cfr.org/report/major-p…
The case for @OSCE_SMM was well-made in a recent article by @UmlandAndreas and co-authors that I cited @CFR_CPA . [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
Richard Gowan Profile picture
Jan 17
Last week, @columlynch published a very good piece @ForeignPolicy about how the #UNSC might respond to a Russian offensive against #Ukraine.

Colum kindly quoted me, and I wanted to add a few points to the article (mainly for @UN wonks).

A 🧵 [1/12] foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/14/bid…
There have been snarky responses to @columlynch's piece accusing anyone who thinks @UN can help #Ukraine are "clowns" etc.

But as I said "Nobody actually thinks that the Council will have a significant substantive role in negotiating a conclusion to a new war in Ukraine." [2/12]
.@USUN, @RussiaUN and other Council members will use the #UNSC to try to shape political narrative around #Ukraine.

For example, Russia recently held an informal SC meeting on threats to minorities in the #Baltics and #Ukraine.

See @SCRtweets: [3/12] securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/20…
Read 12 tweets
Richard Gowan Profile picture
Jan 17
Good to see @SandraBreka make a full-throated defence of EU style multilateralism @UN @ProSyn, though @antonioguterres and advisers might not put it this way. There are grumblings around UNHQ that "Our Common Agenda" is "too European" its priorities. [1/5]
project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-…
But if @PoliticoRyan is right and Angela Merkel will play a leading role in "Our Common Agenda" follow-up, it is going to be hard to deny that the EU and its vision of multilateralism are pretty central to the project. [2/5] politico.com/newsletters/gl…
We have certainly seen @antonioguterres drawing closer to the EU in recent years, as symbolised by his meeting with the EU Council last summer (Cc. @FamaNelMondo @CrisisGroup). [3/5] crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
Read 5 tweets

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