Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
May 31 7 tweets 2 min read
1/7 - "The evolutionary rate of the related variola virus has been estimated to be about about 1-2 nucleotide changes per year for a nearly 200,000 nucleotide genome. This makes 47 substitutions in the space of 3-4 years an unexpectedly large number."
virological.org/t/initial-obse…
2/7 - As #MonkeypoxVirus is considered a zoonotic virus with limited human to human transmission, this long branch may be evidence of adaptation to humans allowing for the sustained transmission that is now observed."
3/7 - "However, 42 out of 47 of these nucleotide changes are of a particular type, a dinucleotide change from TC→TT or its reverse complement GA→AA. This specific mutation is characteristic of the action of the APOBEC3 family of deaminases."
4/7 - "This could indicate that the 42 changes were the result of bouts of deamination during virus replication due to host antiviral defences.[...] The normal action of APOBEC3 enzymes is anti-viral."
5/7 - "[Three questions]
- Is this putative APOBEC3 editing occurring in a non-human animal reservoir host prior to emergence into humans in limited chains of human transmission?"
6/7 - "cont'd
- Does this tree represent a multi-year history of sustained human transmission?"
7/7 - "cont'd
- Is the action of APOBEC3 acting as a driver of adaptation to humans as a host?"

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More from @FLAHAULT

Jun 1
1/9-"Despite strong levels of vaccination among older pple, #COVID19 killed them at higher rates during this winter’s #Omicron wave than it did last year, preying on long delays since their last shots and the variant’s ability to skirt immune defenses."
nytimes.com/2022/05/31/hea…
2/9 - "This winter’s wave of deaths in older people belied the #Omicron variant’s relative mildness. Almost as many Americans 65+ died in 4 months of the Omicron surge as did in 6 months of the #Delta wave,even though the Delta variant,tended to cause more severe illness/person."
3/9 - "This is not simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” said Andrew Stokes, from Boston University who studies age patterns of #COVID19 deaths. “There’s still exceptionally high risk among older adults, even those with primary vaccine series.”
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Read 9 tweets
May 31
1/9 - "The WHO Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution [is] developing a global risk-monitoring framework for #SARSCoV2 variants, based on a multidisciplinary approach that includes in silico, virological, clinical and epidemiological data."
nature.com/articles/s4159…
2/9 - "[This group, namely TAG-VE] uses a Delphi consensus method to establish which emerging variants are considered variants of interest (VOIs) or variants of concern (VOCs) As of 26 March 2022, 8 VOIs and 5 VOCs had been designated."
3/9 - "The first available data on emerging variants that are assessed by TAG-VE are viral sequences and their associated metadata shared on publicly accessible genetic sequence databases (e.g., GISAID, Genbank, the European Nucleotide Archive, and the DNA Database of Japan)."
Read 9 tweets
May 29
1/6 - #VarioleDuSinge: 316 cas confirmés, toujours pas de décès:
N’en fait-on pas un peu trop?
A-t-on perdu la raison avec la pandémie de #COVID19?
Ne voit-on pas des pandémies partout désormais?
Je vais tenter d’expliquer pourquoi je pense que la réponse est 3 fois négative.
2/6 - Il est possible que la #VarioleDuSinge soit aussi bénigne que la varicelle.
Mais on ne sait pas encore.
Si on déplore 20 décès par varicelle pour 700’000 cas/an en France, aujourd’hui on ne sait pas si on ne va pas dénombrer 1 ou 2 décès/1000 infections par #MonkeypoxVirus.
3/6 - A priori, la #VarioleDuSinge est peu transmissible, moins que la varicelle ou le #COVID19, mais on ignore encore si le #MonkeypoxVirus s’est adapté, par la génétique (par mutations) ou l’épigénétique (grâce à son équipement enzymatique).
Read 6 tweets
May 27
1/9 - “The Angel of Death was an oddly serene term for a disease that killed millions and left survivors disfigured by “small pocks”, or blisters on the skin. Smallpox, named to distinguish it from the “great pox” of syphilis, was eradicated in 1980.”
ft.com/content/2067e6…
2/9 - “Now a smallpox vaccine is being wheeled out again to combat an unusual outbreak of #monkeypox, a milder disease caused by a related virus. As of May 22, the WHO has recorded > 250 cases in the biggest outbreak seen outside west and central Africa, where it is endemic.”
3/9 - “The smallpox vaccine, marketed as Imvanex, is also licensed for #monkeypox and provides a good degree of cross-protection. The UKHSA, which has 5,000 doses and more on order, stated it was immunising close contacts of confirmed cases and advising 21-day quarantines.”
Read 9 tweets
May 27
1/5 - "[Le virus de la #VarioleDuSinge a un] double brin d'ADN, lourd de 200.000 bases (à titre de comparaison, le SARS-CoV-2, qui est un virus à ARN, en a 30.000): c'est donc un virus doté d'un gros équipement qui le rend assez plastique et stable."
slate.fr/story/228421/v…
2/5 - "On ne connaît à ce jour que deux variants du monkeypox: la souche appelée centre-africaine, isolée initialement en République démocratique du Congo, et la souche ouest-africaine, isolée au Nigeria. C'est d'ailleurs cette dernière que l'on retrouve dans l'épisode actuel."
3/5 - "Les taxonomistes ne sont décidément pas très doués pour nommer les virus. Pas plus que la varicelle (en anglais «chickenpox») n'est une variole du poulet, le monkeypox n'est une variole du singe!"
Read 5 tweets
May 26
1/9 - “#Monkeypox appears to have exploded out of nowhere in the past two weeks, spreading across Europe, the Americas, and other regions. But warning signs appear to have gone unheeded.”
(Source: @HelenBranswell).
statnews.com/2022/05/26/war…
2/9 - “An unusual and long-running outbreak in Nigeria should have served as notice that it was only a matter of time before this orthopoxvirus pushed its way to the center of the infectious diseases stage, experts say.”
3/9 - “After decades without cases, Nigeria experienced a large #monkeypox outbreak starting in 2017 that continues to this day. Prior to this year, that outbreak spread beyond Nigeria’s borders eight times, with infected people traveling to the US, the UK, Israel and Singapore.”
Read 9 tweets

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