CRFB.org Profile picture
May 31 6 tweets 5 min read
🚨NEW🚨 Under alternative, fiscally-irresponsible scenarios based on @USCBO's baseline – including likely policy extensions and more deficit-financed actions – #deficits could surpass $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 and #debt could reach 𝟭𝟮𝟱% of GDP by 2032.

➡️crfb.org/blogs/debt-cou…. ImageImageImageImage
➡️Last week, @USCBO projected that debt will reach a record 110% of GDP and deficits will reach $2.3 trillion by 2032.⤵️

But the baseline is based on current law, and ignores future legislation, administrative actions and temporary policy extensions.
➡️We've mapped debt, deficits & interest payments based on two alternative, more realistic scenarios:
➤With extensions of temporary policies & with spending growing faster than inflation;
➤With the above extensions, plus other debt-financed legislative & administrative actions. Image
🚨Under both scenarios, debt and deficits would soar beyond those projected by @USCBO in its baseline –
➤With extensions: $3.1 trillion added to deficits, and 118% debt-GDP.
➤With extensions and other actions: $5.5 trillion added to deficits, and 125% debt-GDP. ImageImage
📈These scenarios would also push interest payments to record levels. Interest spending will rise significantly from 1.6% of GDP in 2022 to a record 3.3% in 2032 under current law.
➤With extensions: 3.5%
➤With extensions and additional actions: 3.6% Image
➡️Ultimately, debt could rise much higher – up to 125% of GDP under our estimates – if policymakers extend several costly temporary policies + take on several other deficit-increasing policies.

Given our bleak fiscal situation, we can't afford more irresponsible actions. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with CRFB.org

CRFB.org Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BudgetHawks

Jun 3
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The #Medicare Trustees' report shows that the Part A HI trust fund is only 6 years from insolvency, facing a large shortfall with rapidly-growing spending. The outlook is slightly improved, but substantial structural imbalances remain.

crfb.org/papers/analysi…. ImageImageImageImage
1️⃣ The HI trust fund is only 𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046). Image
2️⃣ Total #Medicare spending will grow significantly.

All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 3
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The latest #SocialSecurity projections show that the program is only 13 years from insolvency and faces large & rising imbalances. Though finances have improved slightly, they remain perilous, and time is running out to save the program.

crfb.org/papers/analysi…. ImageImageImageImage
1️⃣ #SocialSecurity is only 𝟭𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The theoretical combined trust funds comprising #SocialSecurity (OASI+SSDI) will exhaust their reserves by 2035, when today's 54-year-olds reach full retirement age and today's youngest retirees turn 75. ⤵️ Image
2️⃣ #SocialSecurity faces large and rising imbalances.

The Trustees project the program will run cash deficits of nearly $2.5 trillion over the next decade – the equivalent of 2.1% taxable payroll or 0.8% of GDP. 75-year actuarial imbalance totals 3.4% of payroll or 1.2% of GDP. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 2
🚨NEW🚨 Today's trustees reports show that the #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) #trustfunds are rapidly approaching insolvency; these funding imbalances will require #TrustFundSolutions to prevent broad benefit cuts.

More: crfb.org/blogs/trustees…. ImageImage
➡️OASI depletion will occur by 2034, while SSDI will not deplete within the projection window.

On a theoretical combined basis, assuming revenue is allocated between the trust funds in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, #SocialSecurity will become insolvent by 2035. ⤵️ Image
➡️Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries will face a 20% across-the-board benefit cut, which will grow to 26% by 2096. The Trustees estimate a 75-year actuarial shortfall of 3.42% of taxable payroll for #SocialSecurity – lower than 2021's estimate, but higher than any prior year.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
🚨The #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Trustees released their annual reports on the state of the trust funds today, finding that #Medicare HI will be insolvent by 2028 and theoretically combined #SocialSecurity by 2035.

The following is a statement from @MayaMacGuineas: ImageImage
"#SocialSecurity is only 13 years from insolvency and #Medicare is only 6 years. Policymakers need to get their heads out of the sand and stop pretending these vital programs’ funding issues will fix themselves." crfb.org/press-releases….
"Today’s youngest retirees will be 68 years old when #Medicare runs out of reserves and 75 years old when #SocialSecurity becomes insolvent. Workers under the age of 55 will retire into an insolvent system."
Read 10 tweets
Mar 3, 2021
Although the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill under consideration addresses some key needs, some pieces could be better targeted. A redesigned plan could still provide the support necessary to fight the virus and support a strong economic recovery.
The House #COVIDrelief package includes about $312B of policies developed long before the #COVID crisis, not in response to it. Many of these policies are worthwhile but should be paid for and made permanent parts of the tax code or budget.
Policymakers could offset these policies by raising the top individual income tax rate for high earners back to 39.6% or increasing the corporate income tax rate.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21, 2019
NEW: The CBO update shows that the recent budget deal made a bad situation worse. From our statement: "The recent budget deal was a budget buster, and now we have further proof. Both parties took an already unsustainable situation and made it much worse." crfb.org/press-releases…
"Debt is now going to grow to almost the size of the economy within the decade. If Congress keeps extending tax cuts, debt will likely exceed the size of the economy within the decade."
"Between the budget deal, the tax cuts, and other recent unpaid-for legislation, policymakers have roughly doubled near-term deficits over just the past few years."
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(