Noble Francis Profile picture
Jun 1 10 tweets 8 min read
A further rise in UK construction materials prices as expected as the spikes in energy costs & commodity prices continue to feed through after the Ukraine invasion. Materials prices in April 2022 were 25.2% higher than a year ago according to BEIS...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... & the 25.2% annual increase in UK construction materials prices in April 2022 compares with 24.5% in March & the recent peak of 23.7% in October 2021 (when there were materials availability issues) & it is worth noting that, firstly,...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... materials prices in April 2022 were not only 25.2% higher than a year ago but prices are now 38.4% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, which affects contractors on fixed-price contracts signed up to over the last few years, secondly...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... the full impact of energy cost & commodity price rises on construction materials inflation after the Ukraine invasion will still be coming through over the next 3-6 months due to the use pre-purchasing & forward contracts &, thirdly,...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... that the UK construction materials inflation varies considerably by product, with the sharpest price rises in the year to April 2022 on steel products such as concrete reinforcing bars (62%) & fabricated structural steel (46%) because...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... 13% of UK imports of construction steel come from Russia & Ukraine (so supply is directly affected & there is a rise in demand & price from other sources), recent commodity price spikes are leading to iron ore & steel price rises plus...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... steel construction is energy-intensive (& energy costs account for between 25% & 33% of total costs for energy-intensive product manufacturers) so the recent sharp energy cost rises are also contributing to the sharp price rises. For...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... softwood timber products, around 6% of UK imports come from Russia & Ukraine so there is a slight supply impact & import price rise as demand rises from other sources although these are not energy-intensive products so the price rises are not...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... for softwood timber are not as high as for steel & it is worth noting timber prices were falling, albeit from high levels, between October 2021 & February 2022 with prices rising from March 2022 due to the Ukraine invasion supply impact &...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... & as construction activity ramps up in the Spring in certain sectors such as private housing & renovation combined with merchant stocks of softwood timber simultaneously falling.
#ukconstruction #construction Image

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More from @NobleFrancis

Sep 27, 2021
Lee Rowley is the new Construction Minister, making him the 9th Construction Minister in the last 5 years and the UK currently averages 1 construction minister every 7 months...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Looking over the longer-term, Lee Rowley is also the 20th Construction Minister in the last 20 years, averaging 1 every 13 months. The lack of stability in the position is a long-term problem but it has clearly got worse in the last 5 years...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Unfortunately, government views the Construction Minister position as a 'stepping stone' position whereby, if you succeed then you get promoted to a higher-profile position or if you fail you get relegated (back) to the backbenches....
#ukconstruction #construction
Read 10 tweets
Sep 10, 2021
According to the ONS, construction output fell 1.6% in July 2021. It has fallen for 4 consecutive months & is 2.5% lower than in January 2020 although note the ONS appears to have issues estimating private housing output...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust… Image
Looking across the sectors, the main contributors to the 1.6% fall in total construction output in July were private housing (-7.5%) & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) whilst the largest rise was in industrial (warehouses)...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Looking at the evolution of construction output in the key sectors since Covid-19, infrastructure continues to go from strength to strength whilst industrial is rising sharply from a low base as warehouse projects are finally coming through &...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 18 tweets
Sep 8, 2021
The key point from today's National Audit Office (NAO) report into the debacle that was the Green Homes Grant. BEIS initially announced it would retrofit 600,000 homes & yet it failed to even do 10% of that...
#ukhousing #energyefficiency #netzero
nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
... & note govt's terrible record of unrealistic announcements on retrofit & failing to deliver. e.g. With the Green Deal govt announced an ambition to retrofit 14 million homes & only 14,000 households used it...
#ukhousing #energyefficiency #netzero
publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cm… ImageImage
... & the critical point is if government is really serious on energy-efficient retrofit there needs to be realistic long-term policies with time to gain momentum with financial incentives to give households the incentives to spend & also...
#ukhousing #energyefficiency #netzero
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11, 2021
Construction output in April 2021 was 2.0% lower than March's recent peak (that was above pre-Covid-19 levels). Comparisons with a year ago are irrelevant given April 2020 was the nadir during the initial lockdown but...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... as a more appropriate reference point construction output in April 2021 was 0.4% lower than in January 2020, pre-Covid-19 so it remains a 'V'-shaped recovery for construction output so far compared with a 'W'-shaped recovery for UK GDP...
#ukconstruction #construction
Looking how the key sectors have evolved since January 2020, pre-Covid-19, there remains a distinct difference between the sectors in which activity is considerably higher than pre-Covid-19 (private housing rm&i & infrastructure), in contrast to...
#ukconstruction #construction
Read 12 tweets
Jun 10, 2021
UK construction products imports volumes from the EU in 2021 Q1 fell by 16.1% compared to 2020 Q4 & were 0.8% higher than a year ago whilst construction products exports to the EU in 2021 Q1 were 48.6% lower than in Q4 & 28.7% lower than a year ago BUT...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... note some very important caveats. These are inappropriate reference points given that 2020 Q4 was distorted (artificially high) due to stockpiling & 2020 Q1 was distorted (artificially low) due to an impact from initial lockdowns...
#ukconstruction #brexit
... A more appropriate reference point would be to compare with the average of 2016-18, prior to any Brexit deadlines in 2019 & 2020. Given the stockpiling in 2020 Q4, it is also worth while using the average of Q4 & 2021 Q1...
#ukconstruction #brexit
Read 8 tweets
May 18, 2021
UK construction employed 2.16 million people in 2021 Q1, which is 14,817 (0.7%) higher than in Q4 but it is still 154,429 (6.7%) lower than in 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19 & 270,782 (11.2%) lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1...
#ukconstruction #construction
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… Image
... & interestingly, male construction employment continued to fall in 2021 Q1 (by 10,717 vs Q4 & 180,237 vs 2019 Q4, pre-Covid-19) & this was offset by a rise in female employment in 2021 Q1 of 25,534 (9.0%) vs Q4 & 25,808 (9.1%) vs 2019 Q4...
#ukconstruction #gender Image
... which, on the plus side means that UK construction employment in 2021 Q1 had its highest proportion of females on record (albeit still a low proportion compared with the population). However...
#ukconstruction #construction #gender Image
Read 7 tweets

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