🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The #Medicare Trustees' report shows that the Part A HI trust fund is only 6 years from insolvency, facing a large shortfall with rapidly-growing spending. The outlook is slightly improved, but substantial structural imbalances remain.
crfb.org/papers/analysi….
crfb.org/papers/analysi….
1️⃣ The HI trust fund is only 𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.
The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046).
The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046).
2️⃣ Total #Medicare spending will grow significantly.
All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage.
All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage.
3️⃣ #Medicare's financial outlook is slightly better.
The Trustees project a later insolvency date + slight improvement in long-term solvency largely due to higher payroll tax revenue. However, structural imbalances remain substantial and ultimate costs are similar to last year.
The Trustees project a later insolvency date + slight improvement in long-term solvency largely due to higher payroll tax revenue. However, structural imbalances remain substantial and ultimate costs are similar to last year.
4️⃣(1) #Medicare will grow more costly in an illustrative alternative scenario.
The Chief Actuary produced an alternative scenario that assumes the constraints under current law are gradually weakened & some currently scheduled physician bonus payments are continued long-term.⤵️
The Chief Actuary produced an alternative scenario that assumes the constraints under current law are gradually weakened & some currently scheduled physician bonus payments are continued long-term.⤵️
...4️⃣(2) These assumptions would mean payments grow more slowly than the private sector over the next two decades, then growing at the same rate.
Spending would grow substantially higher than the official forecasts over the long term, both for HI and #Medicare more broadly.
Spending would grow substantially higher than the official forecasts over the long term, both for HI and #Medicare more broadly.
➡️Action is needed soon to constrain the rising costs of #Medicare.
Without timely action by lawmakers to secure the #Medicare HI trust fund, payments from the trust fund would be abruptly and indiscriminately reduced or delayed – leading to a potential loss of access to care.
Without timely action by lawmakers to secure the #Medicare HI trust fund, payments from the trust fund would be abruptly and indiscriminately reduced or delayed – leading to a potential loss of access to care.
➡️Many options are available to secure and improve #Medicare for future generations, including those put forward in our Trust Fund Solutions initiative (crfb.org/our-work/proje…).
Read our full analysis at crfb.org/papers/analysi….
Read our full analysis at crfb.org/papers/analysi….
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
