Thread by @ZimermanErik

Back from travel, let's get to reporting on what doesn't get reporting. This morning, heavy #Russian shelling south of the Siverskyi in #Bohorodychne & #Svyatogorsk indicate fast advance on this sector. By the thermal footprint history, it appears RU now controls or is near

controlling Svyatogorsk (on the north bank), and is now attacking the south bank both here, and further west at Bohordychne. Both of these towns have river crossings that were standing as of our last information. Sat images from the 31st of May indicate the eastern bridge was

intact and the western one was likely standing. The UA forces may have blown them since (as they often do before retreating), but it seems likely that they did not as Russia is attempting to cross south at these positions. The strategic value is important. Earlier in the conflict

#Ukrainian forces seemed to be able to defend only in urban centers, and prepared entrenchments, leaving the open terrain to #Russian field units (though often attacking them & their supply units by various means). More recently UA forces have shown a good ability to use dense

forests in defense and offense. The forest partially neutralizes local RU air superiority and limits use of heavy armored vehicles, as well as of units which require heavy supply lines. UA forces have a strong presence in this area including in the Sviati Hory National Park

forests and other forests & high grounds in the area. A RU advance south here is likely meant to do several things.
1. Begin the encirclement of some of these forest entrenched troops. Surrounding them or forcing their retreat alleviates the threat to the #Lyman - #Izum railway

which was only recently captured fully by RU forces.
2. Achieving a crossing at this point, leaves the RU spearheads much closer to this new railway hub. Progress has slowed as RU forces advance further away from the #Izum & #Popasna supply hubs. Advancing SE along the E40 from

the Dolyna area (where RU forces are already south of the river) keeps extending a very long supply line. Crossing the river south of the forests around the towns in question puts the advance much closer to a railway station, that at Sosnove, on the Lyman - Izum rai line, & only

about 5km from the southern bank of the river (the crossing at Bohorodychne about 6 km).
3. The advance from the north can complement the advance towards Dolyna from the west along the E40 highway so that those forces are not isolated or cut off.
4. The southern bank of the river

includes strategic highgrounds that dominate the planes S, SW and SE of them. These are important to hold, rather than to attempt to advance under their control.
5. Perhaps most importantly strategically, this is part of the effort to advance behind the #Slovyansk - Kramatorks -

Kostyantynivka line, instead of (only) advancing towards it from the front. While the breakthrough at #Lyman (which happened while I was away though I was able to comment on its beginning) has opened the way to Slovyansk from the east, this advance aims to threaten it from the

rear (west). RU forces thus far has shown a preference to assault cities, even if from various sides, rather than first completely surround them (as I would think is better), so they may simply end up advancing on Slovyansk from both directions, though I would think it wiser

to bypass the whole line first by cutting it off in a southward advance. This interesting small encirclement remains less important than the one further east, where RU must seize Siversk to complete it. Having failed to advance on it from the north by river crossings, we will see

if Russian forces re-attempt it, or rather advance on Siversk from Ozerne and Zakitne. Alternatively, a similar (but not identical) encirclement effect will be achieved by a further advance by the forces from Popasna to cut off the Bakhmut - Siversk road. This is already being

attempted in battles around Vesele (towards Rozdolivka, and Soledar and Vymka (towards Siversk along the rail line). An attack from the north however, seems to require Russian consolidation first, operation of the damaged railways around Lyman, and success in the crossings

discussed here. Because #Ukraine has chosen to reinforce the Lysychansk - Severodonetsk salient (and even launch small offensives within it) rather than withdraw its troops (to avoid them being trapped) it has even more to lose by the loss of #Siversk and the complete loss of the

supply lines. Therefore, it would be wise for UA forces to stop these #Siverskyi Donets crossings around Svyatogorsk and Bohorodychne, because they will directly contribute not only to the fall of Slovyansk but also of #Zakitne & thus Siversk, ending the #Lysychansk salient.