1/4 "This year's food crisis is about lack of access. Next year's could be about lack of food" - @antonioguterres. As the war in #Ukraine progresses, so does the scale of the looming food catastrophe. Some countries are beginning to prepare for it. #UkraineUnderAttack
2/4 The government of Egypt is asking the World bank for $500 million to finance the Emergency Food Security and Resilience Support Program. It is aimed to manage Egypt's needs for imported wheat as grain supplies from Ukraine cannot be made.
3/4 33-39% of calorie consumption in Egypt come from grain. 60% of grain in Egypt is imported, and the vast majority of that grain is usually from Ukraine and russia. The country is facing severe problems now.
4/4 Here is also an excellent article by the International Monetary Foundation that briefly summarizes how war in Ukraine affects the world regionally and globally: blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how…
Some thoughts by @TimothyDSnyder I fully agree with: 1/4 "It is certainly in our interests for 🇺🇦 to win the war as soon as possible. Any other outcome would weaken our democracies and encourage aggression, the use of nuclear weapons..A 🇷🇺 victory would be a security nightmare"
2/4 "Diplomacy... will be appropriate later, to discuss an agreement, borders, possible concessions… but only when Ukraine has won the war. This confusion of thinking that diplomacy can substitute for victory worries me. Victory cannot be achieved through diplomacy."
3/4 "This is the goal of this war: to destroy the Ukrainian nation. Affecting the Ukrainian economy, just like deporting women and children, killing men, burning libraries and archives… is part of the same project: eliminating the Ukrainian nation".
1/3 India has tried to pay russia in rubles instead of dollars to buy Belarus fertilizer. The payment didn't go through. This is not good news for the two countries - they planned to use rupee-ruble exchange mechanism and avoid sanctions imposed on russia by Western countries.
2/3 Only a negligible amount of rupees actually converted to rubles of the Rs 1.77 billion ($23 million) paid. Sberbank has failed to provide any timely explanations. There are opinions that it happened due to the sanctions imposed on russian banks.
3/3 It is thought that the mechanism of rupee-ruble exchange that was actively discussed by India and russia prior to russian invasion in Ukraine, will now be put on hold until the end of the war as a precaution measure for India. #UkraineRussiaWar
1/5 Western views about the outcome of war in 🇺🇦 differ. Pessimism, then a surge of optimism and pessimism again. Now, with 🇷🇺 occupying 20% of 🇺🇦, and heavy battles on #Donbas there are talks ny some politicians in the West about ending the war with concessions of 🇺🇦 territory.
2/5 These shifts have consequences. 1️⃣, they influence 🇺🇦 morale - we are already devastated by months of violence, destruction and death. 2️⃣, they affect weapon supplies and, more importantly, their timing. 3️⃣, they give 🇷🇺 ground to try suggesting concession as the best option.
3/5 To see the situation clearly, look at the bigger picture. Even if/when russians take #Donbas, they will have to deal with destroyed infrastructure, extremely disloyal population and active partisan/sabotage movement. 🇺🇦 forces will do everything to take back our territories.
1/4 Sanctions for microchips and other high-tech things have created bottlenecks for russian companies. russia's advanced technology sector consumes less than 1% of the world's semiconductors. However, the effects are already felt, especially in some sectors of russian economy.
2/4 🇷🇺 laws mandate companies store data within the country - difficult to comply with for lack of new servers and cloud computing services. Biggest telecom groups will be unable to access 5G equipment and will probably need to resort to buying second-hand 4G equipment.
3/4 russia is known for using "grey market" schemes to buy what it needs but global shortage of chips and other crucial IT hardware will make it unlikely. Domestic production of microchips is reportedly of very low quality so they cannot fully substitute imported ones.
«Ukraine has shown it can strike military targets inside Russia, notably railway lines, airfields and weapons sites. It has done so responsibly and with precision...Military strikes, unlike Russia’s barbarous assault on Ukraine, have scrupulously avoided targeting civilian areas»
"They are designed to damage Russia’s capacity to wage war. If Ukraine maintains the ability to continue these counterforce strikes, the war is likely to end sooner than it otherwise would. The crucial step is to convince Mr Putin that he cannot prevail and must sue for peace."
1/3 #India is taking advantage of the situation with imports of russian crude oil soaring since russia attacked #Ukraine - they are now 17% of Indian imports vs less than 1% before the war. Some of this refined oil then ends up in EU, indirectly financing #russian war machine.
2/3 #China is also discussing the purchase of russian crude oil to fill up its strategic reserves. Its price has decreased rapidly as a lot buyers refused to continue cooperation due to sanctions imposed against russia for its invasion to #Ukraine.
3/3 This is a chance for China to replenish its strategic reserves for a low price, using sanctions against russia for its own game. It has done the same earlier, accepting oil cargoes from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine️