Thread by @M_Baranowski

Few observations on the prospect of #NATO enlargement after spending a week of meetings in #Stockholm 🇸🇪 and #Istanbul🇹🇷 1/n

The issue of Turkish objection to Swedish and Finish membership will not fix itself. The two countries have very different perception of the legitimacy of the other side’s demands. Don’t expect this issue to go away before the #Madrid #NATO Summit. 2/n

The issue easiest to take off the table bilaterally is Swedish de-facto arms embargo vis-a-vis Turkey. Swedes understand that they should be open to selling arms to any Ally when they join #NATO.

The Kurdish issue is going to be much harder - both because the two sides don’t agree on whether or not Sweden supports PKK politically and financially. But also because support for Kurds is a big political issue both in Sweden and in Turkey.

In Turkey, President Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO improved his approval rating - that’s a big deal given the upcoming elections and a very thought economic situation in Turkey that saps government’s support.

Many observers in Turkey 🇹🇷 think that what the Turkish government is really trying to do, is to extract concessions from the U.S. e.g. on F-16s

U.S. government 🇺🇸 is not interested for the moment in injecting itself in resolving this situation. U.S.-Turkey relations are at a low point, and it’s not clear if the Biden administration could even deliver a carrot for Turkey, given sour the mood in Congress.

#NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and his private office are deeply involved in mediating, but so far there are very few signs of progress

In Turkey, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is seen as a regional conflict, rather than a challenge to the European security system. Therefore the #NATO #Madrid summit is seen as an opportunity for a transactional gain, rather than a key moment for transatlantic unity.

💡Perhaps a country that has good relations with Turkey 🇹🇷, who will strongly benefit in security terms from 🇸🇪&🇫🇮 joining NATO, and can closely consult with the 🇺🇸, could play a helpful role in this stalemate - #Poland🇵🇱? @JakubKumoch @RauZbigniew