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Paul D Williams Profile picture
@PDWilliamsGWU
Jun 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
During May 2019-April 2020, @UNMAS data shows that #Somalia🇸🇴 was, by far, #Africa's most deadly theater for IED warfare. Main targets were #AMISOM & #SNA moving to/from their FOBs. unmas.org/en/unmas-somal… Image
From 2015-20, the #Somali🇸🇴 National Army #SNA suffered 1,234 injured and 725 fatalities from IEDs (according to UNMAS🇺🇳 data). 2020 was a particularly bad year. unmas.org/en/unmas-somal… Image
Interestingly, 2020 saw a switch in #AlShabaab IED attack methodology, far fewer large VBIEDs, to more smaller Person-Borne PBIEDs in Banadir.
Another notable point, since 2015, #AlShabaab had targeted #AMISOM forces more with IEDs, but shifted towards more attacks on #SNA🇸🇴 forces; to near parity in 2020. This means the #SNA needs more C-IED support. Image
Interesting map of 114 indirect fire incidents using stand-off weapons in #Somalia🇸🇴 during 2020. UNMAS🇺🇳 data. unmas.org/en/unmas-somal… Image

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More from @PDWilliamsGWU

Paul D Williams Profile picture
Aug 10, 2023
For those confused about the #ECOWAS Standby Force, a few basic points:
1) It’s the ECOWAS part of the larger African Standby Force (ASF) structure, which comprises 5 regional forces (North, Eastern, Western/ECOWAS, Central, and Southern). Image
2) It can comprise of military, police and civilian personnel. It can be mandated to perform one of the 6 standard ASF scenarios (below), or anything else ECOWAS authorizes it to do. Image
3) There is no assembled, mustered military force standing-by somewhere ready to immediately deploy. The ESF is a set of command, planning & logistical elements + pledged units (eg infantry battalion, log company, engineer platoon etc.), which will assemble when authorized.
Read 6 tweets
Paul D Williams Profile picture
Dec 1, 2021
1/ Next week, #SouthKorea🇰🇷 will (now virtually) host the 2021 @UNPeacekeeping🇺🇳 Ministerial meeting. The aims are to discuss key issues in #PeaceOperations + generate concrete pledges of assets & capabilities from 🇺🇳 Member States.
peacekeeping.un.org/en/2021-seoul-…
2/ The pledging summits began in 2014 and have significantly increased the capabilities registered in the UN's🇺🇳 strategic force generation system: the #Peacekeeping Capabilities Readiness System pcrs.un.org/SitePages/Home…
3/ Ideally, the UN🇺🇳 wants it Member States to offer capabilities that are most in demand in its #PeaceOperations and to fill capability gaps in existing missions. Here's the pledging guide for the 2021 ministerial peacekeeping.un.org/sites/default/…
Read 5 tweets
Paul D Williams Profile picture
Oct 23, 2021
The latest round of serious fighting in #Somalia🇸🇴, finally sees the FGS going after its no.1 enemy: #AlShabaab.*
*Of course not, the FGS is fighting ASWJ, a longstanding religious-inspired militia that has resisted #AlShabaab pretty effectively since at least 2008. 😒
Meanwhile, the UN🇺🇳 Panel of Experts on #Somalia🇸🇴 recorded 1,047 #AlShabaab attacks on #SNA🇸🇴 & international targets over 9 months: 16/12/20-6/9/21. They were mainly hit & run attacks with few designed to hold or capture towns or overrun military bases. reliefweb.int/report/somalia… Image
+30 killed, +100 wounded in the latest #SNA🇸🇴 vs ASWJ fighting. Only #AlShabaab will be laughing... reuters.com/world/africa/d…
Read 4 tweets
Paul D Williams Profile picture
Jul 18, 2021
1/ The UN🇺🇳 & @_AfricanUnion🟩 have now both conducted "independent" assessments of how best to provide international support to #Somalia🇸🇴 after 2021. The 🇺🇳 team recommended continuing with a reconfigured @amisomsomalia, the AU🟩 team a hybrid AU-UN multidimensional mission.
2/ The AU🟩 team's envisaged AU-led-UN-hybrid mission (AU-UNMIS) would be 50% police (IPOs + FPUs), 35% military, 15% civilian personnel with expanded political powers for the head (Joint🇺🇳🟩 Special Representative). Overall personnel numbers r unspecified.
3/ The @AUC_PAPS appears to want the hybrid AU-UNMIS to be comprised of only #African personnel but financed💰 entirely by the UN's🇺🇳 assessed peacekeeping contributions. I was unclear about the logistics & mission support model the AU🟩 team envisage.
Read 9 tweets
Paul D Williams Profile picture
Mar 26, 2021
1/ What military options are available if you’ve got a nasty insurgency attacking parts of your country & citizens? If you're, say, #Mozambique🇲🇿, it turns out the menu of potential options is quite large. Of course, they might not work but here’s the menu as I see it...
2/ In no particular order. Option 1: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could handle its insurgency alone with its own national security forces.
3/ Option 2: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could supplement its national security forces with bilateral security force assistance #SFA programs from other states e.g. 🇺🇸🇫🇷🇵🇹 etc. Training, equipping, advising, maybe field mentoring etc.
Read 15 tweets
Paul D Williams Profile picture
Apr 16, 2019
1/ It's fair to say @UNPeacekeeping🇺🇳 is currently in a financial crisis caused largely but not solely by the 🇺🇸 Trump administration. Here's a thread explaining the state of play undocs.org/a/73/809
2/ First a caveat: the numbers fluctuate regularly so what follows are just snapshots. @UNPeacekeeping & its troop- & police-contributing countries (T/PCCs) are reimbursed after the fact. Here's an explainer of how it works via @ipinstGO theglobalobservatory.org/2018/10/in-us-…
3/ When UN Member States don't pay their @UNPeacekeeping dues in full and on-time it hurts 1) T/PCCs; 2) mission effectiveness in the field; and 3) the reputation of the UN's🇺🇳 general effective system for financing #PeaceOperations.
Read 22 tweets

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