[THREAD] 🧵#Lebanon's maritime border negotiations and it's implications :
[Context]
The Mediterranean is filled with giant untapped gas fields which many countries can benefit from to boost their economies (#Egypt, #Palestine("#Israel"), #Greece, #Turkey, #Lebanon).
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[Context]
The Mediterranean is filled with giant untapped gas fields which many countries can benefit from to boost their economies (#Egypt, #Palestine("#Israel"), #Greece, #Turkey, #Lebanon).
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[Context]
#Lebanon's maritime borders with Palestine are not drawn yet. There's the Karish gas field that is on the border on disputed territories, which contains hundreds of billions worth of gas.
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#Lebanon's maritime borders with Palestine are not drawn yet. There's the Karish gas field that is on the border on disputed territories, which contains hundreds of billions worth of gas.
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[#Lebanon and undeclared sanctions] In 2020, Total suddenly stopped it's exploration activities in Lebanon and declared that "there's no commercial quantities available in blocks 4 and 9", and refused to give it's reports to Lebanon.
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There's serious doubts about these reports and Lebanon's government estimates that there are potential natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) or more, but until more exploration occurs, that figure remains speculative.
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There's no reason for Total to stop it's exploration activities, it's assumed that it stopped it's activities in the context of the undeclared American sanctions on Lebanon that aim to turn people and parties against Hezbollah in order to disarm it for Israel's security.
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#Lebanon has been going through a dire economic situation since 2019 when the American-Saudi backed ponzi banking system crashed due to #USA political decision. After failing to dismantle Hezbollah with force, the aim is to turn the Lebanese people against it through hunger.
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[Hezbollah's reactions and current role] :
I believe that Hezbollah knew since the crash and undeclared sanctions that #Lebanon's only path to recovery is to extract it's natural ressources.
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I believe that Hezbollah knew since the crash and undeclared sanctions that #Lebanon's only path to recovery is to extract it's natural ressources.
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IMO, Hezbollah has been slowly building the necessary political atmosphere and preparing the public opinion to impose a new equation that will help Lebanon lift the undeclared sanctions on Lebanon
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[A bit more context that i forgot to add and im coming back to Hezbollah in the next point] :
Since Ukraine's war, Europe is in dire need of gas alternatives and the Mediterranean is it's top priority. Israel is working on becoming the top Mediterranean gas exporter.
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Since Ukraine's war, Europe is in dire need of gas alternatives and the Mediterranean is it's top priority. Israel is working on becoming the top Mediterranean gas exporter.
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[Back to Hezbollah]
In 2020, Hezbollah secretary general issued a threat:
To those who wish to force us into choosing between 2 options : between killing us with weapons or by starvation, I tell them : we will keep our weapons and We will kill you ! (x3)
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In 2020, Hezbollah secretary general issued a threat:
To those who wish to force us into choosing between 2 options : between killing us with weapons or by starvation, I tell them : we will keep our weapons and We will kill you ! (x3)
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2 years later, last week, a ship that extracts gas arrived to the dispited Karish field to start gas extraction for Israel. Hezbollah issued an ultimatum to Israel :
"Hezbollah will strike the ship if it starts extracting gas while the negotiations are ongoing".
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"Hezbollah will strike the ship if it starts extracting gas while the negotiations are ongoing".
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Sayed Nasrallah then asked : Israel is allowed to extract in disputed territory, and Total is not even allowed to continue explorations let alone extract gas ?
Do you wish to starve us to death ?
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Do you wish to starve us to death ?
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IMO, this question is a direct reference to 2020's threat :
If you want to kill us by starvation, we will kill you !
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If you want to kill us by starvation, we will kill you !
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I believe that this question has been asked to prepare for the final ultimatum that Hezbollah will probably give :
Israel is not allowed to extract gas in any of it's fields if Lebanon stays under sanctions. This is the only path that can guarantee Lebanese rights.
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Israel is not allowed to extract gas in any of it's fields if Lebanon stays under sanctions. This is the only path that can guarantee Lebanese rights.
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Will Europe, USA, and Israel risk getting all the gas and industrial infra destroyed in Israel ? Or will they remove sanctions on Lebanon and let it extract it's gas ?
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#Lebanon has nothing to lose in a war compared to #Israel.There's no electricity or any industry or significant infrastructure. Israel has gas fields,industries,settlements, infra,energy,factories,etc. which can all be targeted with precision missiles.
Who has more to lose?
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Who has more to lose?
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The ship in Karish field needs 2.5 months to start gas extraction.
There's 2 possible outcomes if Negotiations don't finish before 2.5 months :
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There's 2 possible outcomes if Negotiations don't finish before 2.5 months :
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1- #Israel will start extracting gas in the disputed territory, Hezbollah will strike the ship, and war will start
2- respond positively to Hezbollah's threat and back off from gas extraction while negotiations are ongoing.
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2- respond positively to Hezbollah's threat and back off from gas extraction while negotiations are ongoing.
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If Israel backs off, it will destroy it's might and show that it can be threatened to give concessions, which is really bad for internal and external confidence in the settler entity.
And war makes Israel aswell as Europe lose everything.
Both choices are bad for Israel.
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And war makes Israel aswell as Europe lose everything.
Both choices are bad for Israel.
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If negotiations finish before 2.5 months and Israel starts extracting while Lebanon is not allowed, Hezbollah will IMO, like I mentioned before, be forced to issue a new equation :
No gas for Israel if Lebanon is sanctionned. Either war or Lebanon extracts and sells gas.
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No gas for Israel if Lebanon is sanctionned. Either war or Lebanon extracts and sells gas.
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Energean must leave Karish.
https://twitter.com/ramiaalibrahim/status/1536966654478917632?t=WAF6JrUUEGk9IKGBMrPWwQ&s=19
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