Thread by @DaveKeating

Today the EU fires back in a brewing 🇪🇺🇬🇧 trade war.

The Commission is expected to announce unfreezing of legal action against 🇬🇧 (and the start of new actions) following the UK government's tabling of legislation to undo the #Brexit divorce deal's Northern Ireland Protocol.

Both Brussels and national 🇪🇺 capitals were infuriated by Monday's bill from 🇬🇧 government which, if/when passed, would unilaterally terminate large parts of the NI Protocol by ending checks between Northern Ireland (in EU customs area) and Great Britain (not in EU customs area).

🇪🇺VP @MarosSefcovic reminded 🇬🇧 Monday that NI Protocol was a prerequisite for agreeing the free trade deal (TCA) that came later and is now in effect.

The widespread feeling in 🇪🇺 now is @BorisJohnson signed protocol in order to get the deal, with no intention of honouring it.

There were already early indications in 2019 that Johnson did not intend to implement his divorce treaty, well before the free trade TCA was signed.

The EU chose to ignore those signals at the time.

According to diplomats I've spoken to, today's legal action is only the beginning.

If this 🇬🇧bill is passed in its current form, 🇪🇺 may unilaterally terminate the TCA, leaving 🇬🇧 with #NoDealBrexit. The estimate is there is one year to resolve this before that 'nuclear option'.

🇪🇺work on terminating all or part of TCA was already started behind the scenes when 🇬🇧 was preparing a previous act invalidating divorce deal - later dropped.

Work may restart on that but not yet. 🇪🇺 wants to give space to resolve diplomatically, with a firm but serene response.

🇪🇺VP @MarosSefcovic outlining now the EU's response to 🇬🇧 undoing #Brexit divorce deal:

"Let there be no doubt - there is no legal or political justification whatsoever for unilaterally changing an international agreement"

"Let's call a spade a spade: this is illegal"

"The UK bill is extremely damaging to mutual trust and respect between 🇪🇺&🇬🇧," says VP Šefčovič.

"It has created deep uncertainty and casts a shadow over our overall cooperation. All at a time when respect for international agreements has never been more important."

"The Commission has decided to take legal action against the United Kingdom for not complying with significant parts of the protocol"

"We have been withholding this action over past year because we wanted to create constructive environment. But 🇬🇧 gov has left us with no choice"

"If 🇬🇧 doesn't reply within two months, we may take them to the Court of Justice"

"Second, we are launching 2 new infringements against UK - for failing to carry out necessary controls at border control posts...and for failing to provide 🇪🇺 with essential trade statistics data"

Šefčovič says 🇪🇺 has been trying to work with 🇬🇧 to solve problems UK says are happening. In October 🇪🇺 proposed "unprecedented flexibility", reducing controls 80% & halving customs paperwork

But UK hasn't significantly engaged, and has ignored requests for talks since February.

"Despite today's legal action, our door remains open to dialogue. We want to discuss these solutions with the UK government."

"Given that the UK hasn't sat down at the table with us since February, I think it's high time to find some political will to find joint solutions."

The protocol protects EU single market, VP says.

"The conditions which allow NI to access single market for goods are not for the UK to change. It's simply legally and politically inconceivable that the UK decides unilaterally what kind of goods can enter *our* single market"

VP Šefčovič addresses European suspicions of @BorisJohnson's duplicity.

"I'm sure the UK government knew perfectly well what they signed up to when they agreed to the protocol, although I have to admit they didn't do a very good job explaining it to the public."

Šefčovič asked what 🇪🇺 will do if 🇬🇧 ignores ECJ ruling. Will the TCA be terminated?

"The role of the ECJ rulings is clearly reflected in the withdrawal agreement and protocol. Not respecting ECJ ruling would be piling on breach of international law upon another."

"Does 🇬🇧 want to go in that direction? [violating international law] when the rule of law is something we're discussing in all international fora these days?" asks @MarosSefcovic.

"Is it compatible with the proud 🇬🇧 traditions of upholding and respecting the rule of law?"

"How would other international partners look at the UK when they're negotiating agreements with them?"

"Will it stick? Will it be respected? These are questions for the UK gov to respond to."

"Let's come back to the safe ground of respecting treaties and international law"

On whether 🇪🇺will terminate 🇪🇺🇬🇧 free trade TCA in response to 🇬🇧 violating NI Protocol, Šefčovič says:

"If this draft bill becomes law then of course I cannot exclude anything. But we are not there yet, and we want to solve this issue as 2 partners should: through negotiations"

The UK government has responded: a spokesperson says the EU's response is "disappointing".

"The EU continues to insist it is unwilling to change the Protocol itself, so we are obliged to act ourselves to change the parts of the Protocol that are causing problems."

In 🇪🇺 capitals, @BorisJohnson's tabling of a bill to undo the 🇮🇪Protocol in #Brexit divorce deal is nothing short of a declaration of [trade] war. VP Šefčovič said there was no choice but to respond with legal action.

But 🇬🇧 says they have no choice but to tear up the protocol.