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Chris Williamson Profile picture
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Jun 23 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Flash #Germany #PMI Composite Output Index falls to 51.3 in June (May 53.7, consensus 53.1), a 6-month low and indicative of GDP contracting. As with France, consensus well and truly missed

More at bit.ly/3OhVVnF
Manufacturing Output Index at 49.0 (May: 51.2) amid steepest drop in factory orders for two years. Services PMI at 5-month low of 52.4 (May: 55.0) with demand also now falling.
German businesses also reported their lowest confidence towards future activity for over two years in June, led by worsening prospects in manufacturing. This points to a worsening economic decline in coming months
One brighter note came from an easing in the number of supply chain delays, in turn linked to weaker demand, which also helped reduce producer price inflation in #Germany
The flash German #PMI data for June also showed a cooling of inflationary pressures in terms of prices charged for goods and services. Still elevated, but off recent peaks.

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More from @WilliamsonChris

Chris Williamson Profile picture
Jun 23
Big miss for French PMI ... Flash #France #PMI Composite Output Index slides to 52.8 in June (May 57.0), a 5-month low and way below expectations of 56.0. Manufacturing output index at just 45.7 (PMI at 51.0) with services index down to 54.4.
bit.ly/3bmbj41
So French manufacturing is in a steep decline and the service sector is losing momentum rapidly.
Forward-looking indicators have also turned down sharply in #France. Confidence slid to a 19-month low in June, while new orders and backlogs of work rose at the slowest rates for 14 months
Read 4 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Apr 22
The flash S&P Global/CIPS composite #PMI fell from 60.9 in March to 57.6 in April. Although broadly consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate of 0.7-8%, the latest reading signals a marked slowing in the pace of growth 1/
UK service sector business inflows grew at the slowest rate in 2022 to date. In manufacturing, order book growth has lost momentum, driven by an increasing loss of export sales, to result in the weakest rise in new orders since January 2021. 2/
#UK manufacturers and service providers reported demand having been hit by high COVID-19 infection rates and spending power having been squeezed by higher prices, but Brexit was also seen as having hit exports, and the Ukraine war/sanctions was cited as an additional headwind 3/
Read 6 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Feb 17
Next week sees the release of February flash #PMI surveys, plus RBNZ and BoK meetings as well as #GDP for the US, Germany, Taiwan and Thailand.

Full preview at
bit.ly/3uX5ge0
The PMI data in particular will help assess the economic impact of the Omicron variant. Global growth slowed to a 1½ year low in January with a sharp rise in the number of firms reporting output being constrained by staff shortages & illness linked to Omicron ...
More encouragingly, the incidence of output being constrained by materials shortages continued to fall from a pandemic-peak recorded last October.
Read 5 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Jan 7
Global economic growth slowed at the end of 2021 amid rising COVID-19 infection rates linked to #Omicron. However, at 54.3, the Global PMI signals above-trend annualised quarterly global GDP growth of approx. 3.5%.

bit.ly/3F8Ar7j
The December global PMI was pulled lower by a slowing of service sector growth, which slipped to the weakest for three months. In contrast, manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest since July, albeit running behind that of services for the ninth month running.
The widening spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed restrictions (imposed and voluntary) on service sector activity in some economies during December. Manufacturers meanwhile reported that constraints on production had eased, though nonetheless remaining a significant drag.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Jan 5
Global #manufacturing output growth accelerated in December, coming back into line with growth of new orders, as supply constraints eased. Our #PMI wrap up in 10 charts bit.ly/3qRgGwc
While the number of companies worldwide reporting that output was constrained by shortages continued to run at 3.5 times the long-run average in December, this is down from a record peak of 4.7 times the long-run average back in October.
Although still running at a level far in excess of anything seen prior to the pandemic, the average lengthening of supplier delivery times globally eased for a second consecutive month in December to the smallest recorded since March.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Oct 22, 2021
The IHS Markit/CIPS flash UK #PMI rose from 54.9 in Sep to 56.8 in Oct, indicating the fastest expansion of the economy since July.

That's above the pre-pandemic survey average of 54.0 and indicative of roughly 0.7% q/q #GDP growth.

bit.ly/3m3apw0
UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
Read 14 tweets

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