Thread by @SlawomirDebski

Before taking off for D.C, I was interrogated by Polish media (👇) on what is to be expected from the NATO Summit in Madrid. Generally, based on what I hear, the summit will be missed opportunity. So, I am not impressed and here a🧵explaining why it is so in English 1/

https://twitter.com/gazetaprawnapl/status/1541297302152785920

The @NATO summit in Madrid will be dominated by political procrastination. Instead of a new vision for deterring #Russia – which could have been called the #Biden doctrine – NATO’s response to Russian aggression in #Ukraine will be short term routine. This is a mistake. 2/

We will likely hear 1) there’s no need to change anything in NATO posture because Russians’ miserable military performance against Ukraine indicates Russia threat is overrated; 2) NATO is so good in quick deployment of light infantry (paratroopers) it can do it anytime. 3/

Thus the paradigm of rotational trip wire forces on NATOs eastern flank will continue. This is simply repeating old strategy from the Cold War used to defend W. Berlin. Washington pulled out old studies, dusted them off & now they’re deemed the right reaction to 🇷🇺 aggression 4/

As a result we’ll have a summit where we’ll learn that it is enough to deploy several high ranking U.S. officers with their drivers (without families) on NATO’s eastern flank to get “permanent stationing”. The term “permanent” will be introduced, all should be happy & assured 5/

NATO’s current deterrence works on the logic of punishment. In the early days of a war NATO won’t be able to defend its territory but with time NATO response will arrive to take it back. But can we afford to trade NATO territory/people for time to mobilize forces and react? 6/

Of course not! Ukrainians liberated Bucha too late for many! NATO must deter by denial, that is appropriate quantity and quality forces should be deployed to each Baltic country. Permanent NATO bases should be set in Poland and Romania to creat a strong bridgehead. 7/

Russia using armed aggression to realize its foreign policy means Rubicon was crossed. The summit should be a message: there’ll be no Russian strategic success in Ukraine. NATO has an obligation to prevent war from being an effective means of practicing international politics. 8/

There was a chance to combine the free world’s policy of support for Ukraine with NATO’s adoption the deterrence by denial to get integrated strategic punch against Russia, punishing it for bringing war to Europe again and violation NRFA. It looks the opportunity was missed. 9/

Why? Biden – like Obama – wished to see Europe lead on European issues, so the US could focus on China. That’s the ideal world though which doesn’t exist in reality. Putin made a mistake creating strategic opportunity for US to eliminate Russia as China’s ally 10/

In the same time Europe lacks capabilities to explore this window of opportunity, it needs time to rebuild such leadership capabilities. Lacking them will incline Western Europeans to seek compromise with Russia on Ukraine’s expense which goes against US strategic interests. 11/

Downing Russia in Ukraine, punishing it by adopting deterrence by denial, helping Europeans to arm themselves quickly - would make the US strategic room for manoeuvre wider. NATO Madrid summit was a good tool to push such coherent strategy. Missed opportunity? Looks like #End /12