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Sławomir Dębski Profile picture
Sławomir Dębski
@SlawomirDebski
Poland Strategic Futures; The College of Europe in Natolin
5 subscribers
Sep 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
For the past week, we have been embroiled in brawls over Ukrainian grain export/transit and the extent and terms of support for Ukraine fighting Russian aggression. These have occurred in various Ukrainian-Polish Polish-German formats, with even the Biden administration being accused of sitting on its hands rather than nurturing coalition unity. Meanwhile, little is said about the silent hero of this row - the European Commission and @vonderleyen, who de facto triggered it. A few legitimate questions/comments on this in 👉🧵
The tensions in Polish-Ukrainian relations could have been avoided if the European Commission had extended the ban on Ukrainian grain imports to the EU by even just one month (so as not to increase campaign emotions on the eve of the elections), instead focusing on promoting its transit through Poland to the Baltic Sea ports. So why has this not happened? 2/
Sep 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A must-read!
👇
“Russia has in no way abandoned its initial plan to install a pro-Russian government in Kyiv…Russia wants to enlist the West to force Kyiv to accept the so-called “peace for territory” swap and to coerce Ukrainians to resign themselves to the amputation of their country. The real scenario in the minds of Russia’s leaders is not the Korean one: for them, a part of Ukraine integrated into the West is unacceptable. The real scenario that inspires them is the Georgian scenario of 2008-9: it consisted in stirring up the bitterness felt by Georgians after the “betrayal” of the West, in twisting the knife in the wound, so as to demoralize them, make them lose heart, make them plunge back into the corruption and cynicism characteristic of the “Russian world” and finally resign themselves to electing a new government that we now know was a government of collaboration.”

“The first step was to set up a “secret channel” with the American administration. During the Second World War, this secret channel was provided by the highly Sovietophile Harry Hopkins, President Roosevelt’s right-hand man. The advantage of the secret channel is that it enables Moscow to influence decision-makers directly, behind the scenes, behind the backs of the allies, sheltered from the media.”
May 27, 2023 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
As preparations for the next phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war are underway, there is an ongoing discussion about the new shape of the security architecture in Europe. Inevitably, in addition to constructive ideas, threatening concepts are also emerging, which aim to hand Russia a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image But let us begin by saying that Ukraine's victory over Russia must not be viewed as an end in itself. Russia seeks to change the security architecture in Europe by force—a method prohibited by international law. Ukraine is defending this architecture with the support of states… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Mar 19, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is an interesting observation. A reminder of a fact that was once self-evident. There is no universal model of a democratic system. Each democratic state has developed its institutions and procedures in the course of a long historical process and in a sovereign manner. 1/ In the former Eastern Bloc countries, the French constitutional provision, allowing universally binding law to be changed without parliamentary approval, would’ve been considered incompatible with democracy. This is because this is how laws were often introduced by communists 2/
Jan 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A spokeswoman for the German government said few days ago that the German government' approval of the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is essential.
And without it, arming Ukraine with Leopards would be ILLEGAL...
Few considerations on this 👇 1/ I was puzzled by this statement. There is undoubtedly a conflict of norms here. Contractual terms vs. international law. But I believe that a formalistic approach to contractual norms in this issue is unacceptable from the point of view of defending a rules-based order. 2/
Dec 30, 2022 • 19 tweets • 8 min read
As promised, here is a thread with the highlights of my conversation with @ElbridgeColby, followed by a link to full interview in the end of this thread.
Read first and then you can 👉 🥳🍾
A Happy New Year to all readers! Image 2/ @ElbridgeColby: "Russia has clearly weakened itself...I continue to think that the main actors in the global balance are the United States and China; then you have sort of the rising tertiary powers, like India, of course Japan is still there, the European Union as a whole”.
Dec 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting thread. Sergey is right to point out the differences in approaches to Putin's Russia between the democratic CEE societies and Russian liberal opposition. I would distribute the accents differently though - the main difference lies in the different consitutencies.🧶 2/ Russian opposition wants to come to power in democratic way. The problem is that certain part of Russian society is made up of imperialists. Thus Russian liberals do not want to alienate them, so they avoid anti-imperialist rhetoric. But this is the red line for CEE democrats.
Oct 4, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Responding to Putin's nuclear threats against Ukraine, @jakejsullivan re-established deterrence by warning Russia of "catastrophic consequences". However, this message must be reinforced for deterrence to work. How? By sending ATACMS to Ukraine NOW!👉🧵

nbcnews.com/meet-the-press… Let’s start with briefly looking at what ATACMS is: a surface-to-surface ballistic missile, deployed by US Army for last 30 years (fits MLRS & HIMARS launchers). And yes, it was operationally used in the first Gulf War in 1991!
👉asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-…

2/16
Sep 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
„Warum Warschau keine Reparationen von Moskau fordert?“

This single question is an example of not just hubris and insolent whataboutism, but also historical illiteracy. As a historian, I prefer to focus on the last part. Here we go. 1/7

welt.de/politik/auslan… Germany started the war. Germany lost it. It agreed to an unconditional surrender. The Soviet Union invaded Poland. The Soviets killed, looted and ethnically cleansed Poles and other Central European nations. 2/7
Aug 17, 2022 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
I have great esteem for Kateryna and I can understand her (and others) frustration, but the world’s response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine proves that the international law - though imperfect - actually works, and far better than in the past. Let me explain this 👉 🧵 2/ The dispute about the binding force of international law erupts whenever we witness its violation. And it is basically a discussion about whether the glass is half empty or half full.
Jun 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Before taking off for D.C, I was interrogated by Polish media (👇) on what is to be expected from the NATO Summit in Madrid. Generally, based on what I hear, the summit will be missed opportunity. So, I am not impressed and here a🧵explaining why it is so in English 1/ The @NATO summit in Madrid will be dominated by political procrastination. Instead of a new vision for deterring #Russia – which could have been called the #Biden doctrine – NATO’s response to Russian aggression in #Ukraine will be short term routine. This is a mistake. 2/
Apr 29, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
An interesting thread below which inspired me to share my thoughts on Putin's recent threats of nuclear escalation, a war with NATO & invading Moldova etc.
👉🧵1/16 Putin may claim Russia is fighting an "all-out war" against NATO ('better' to lose to NATO than to Ukraine), but he must be aware that a war against Ukraine, equipped by NATO, *and* a war against Ukraine & NATO are two different wars. And he can survive only the former. 2/16
Apr 3, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Sergey Karaganov – a well-known Russian foreign policy shaman gave an interview to @MacaesBruno (Kudos!) for @NewStatesman which, I think, requires few comments. Here's my refelctions in 🧵:

newstatesman.com/world/europe/u… 2) Most of Karaganov’s views have always been based on wishful thinking, wrapped in intellectual arrogance ‘I know better” wisdoms announced ex-cathedra, followed by reluctance to defend his arguments when they were challenged.
bbc.com/news/av/world-…
Feb 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea, blockage of Ukraine’s ports and the coast as well as the accumulation of armed forces in the region, combined with threats against NATO are approaching the level of threat defined in the Montreaux Convention…1/ According to the article 20 of the 1936 the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, giving Turkey control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits): In time of war, the passage of warships shall be left entire  to the discretion of the Turkish Government.2/
Dec 12, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
There has been some well deserved praise for Biden administration's handling of communication with allies following the call with Putin. But I lean towards "the glass is half empty" camp when it comes to grading the overall performance of the Biden team. #🧵 👉 2) Of course,emergency calls,intelligence sharing and Zoom meetings are all necessary part of the playbook. But this is all reaction to prior mistakes (outrage among allies) Biden's announcement of dialogue with "major NATO allies" was one such false move.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Sep 28, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is👇a good representation of 🇫🇷 perspective by great ⁦@SylvieKauffmann⁩
My 2 related cents:
In the 21st century what defines the power status is i.a the number of allies a state has, but also its ability to mobilize their support quickly.🧵 1/9 nytimes.com/2021/09/22/opi… So in theory after Brexit France is significantly stronger than the UK – as potentially it can mobilize allies from the EU quicker, while the UK doesn’t have this luxury anymore – and its allies are first and foremost America’s allies 2/9
Sep 1, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
👉 During today’s press conference Polish FM @RauZbigniew summed up 🇵🇱 successful evacuation from Kabul (1232 ppl)
& two decades of Poland’s engagement in #Afghanistan 👉 He said that it was a spectacular foreign policy success for a number of reasons [thread 1/9] After #9/11, PL declared allied solidarity with the United States. A NATO member since 1999, Poland dispatched troops to Afghanistan, thus becoming a contributor, and not just a consumer of U.S. & #NATO security guarantees. 2/9

press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewconten…
Jul 16, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Sergey @DrRadchenko raises an important question related to recent 🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦 #ViliniusDeclaration on Joint European Heritage and Common Values

(Text here: poland.mfa.gov.ua/pl/news/declar…)

What about Russia?

So here is my thread/response to this very important issue - #Thread 1/12👇 2) In fact Polish political thought provided an answer long ago. Since Poles and other Russia's neighbours demand their right to independence, respect to sovereignty and territorial integrity, they have no right to refuse these same rights to Russians.

novayapolsha.pl/article/pokhva…
Jul 11, 2021 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
Great @AmbDanFried is a top-notch expert on Central & Eastern Europe so it’s no surprise that he called attention to the “Declaration of Joint European Heritage and Common Values” (the Vilnius Declaration) signed by the FMs🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦(Text here: gov.pl/web/diplomacy/…) Thread 1/20 2) The Vilnius Declaration goes beyond political symbolism - an act of political homage paid to the republican, democratic, and freedom traditions of the ancient Commonwealth. The signatories see it a driving force of today's political cooperation of 🇱🇹-🇵🇱-🇺🇦. Image
Feb 14, 2021 • 21 tweets • 6 min read
There’s rumour about confidential negotiations btn the Biden admin and the German gov. Their goal: to find a way out of the mess in which the whole transatlantic community finds itself because of Merkel’s support for Putin’s pipeline—Nord Stream 2 #THREAD

globaltimes.cn/page/202101/12… 2/ The preferred solution for the Biden team would be to deny Putin the ability to exercise energy blackmail against Central Europe and Ukraine, while at the same time foregoing sanctions against Germany.
Aug 2, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Stwierdzenie to daje asumpt do krótkiej akcji edukacyjnej. Dziś polskie siły zbrojne pełnią dokładnie taką samą funkcję, w razie konieczności muszą dostarczyć Polsce argumentów politycznych, np. na rzecz tezy, że Polska sprzeciwia się zmianie granic siłą...1) Przeciwnik będzie dążył do wzbudzenia w polskim społeczeństwie wątpliwości, czy warto? Czy warto ryzykować, być może wojnę jądrową która zakończy znany nam świat, aby sprzeciwić się stworzeniu "korytarza" do Królewca przez polskie terytorium? Czy warto bronić Suwałk? A Wilna? 2).