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Jun 28 9 tweets 7 min read
Why $BRK's 2019-20 purchase of #Japan Inc is a potential #stagflation trade for the history books

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In this week’s PBL (just out!) we PiggyBack:

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway into Japanese trading houses

Read/join free @SubstackInc:
piggyback.one/p/buffetts-inf…
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Let's get to it:

August 31, 2020. $BRK sent out a release that left its many U.S.-focused watchers curious:

Berkshire disclosed having 5+% stakes in all five of #Japan's "big five" general trading houses (Sogo Shosha) after purchasing over 12 months in Tokyo Stock Exchange

2/X     “I am delighted to have Berkshire Hathaway participate
Buffett's / $BRK's "big five"

1 Itochu 🇯🇵TYO:8001|🇺🇸 $ITOCY
2 Marubeni Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8002|🇺🇸 $MARUY
3 Mitsubishi Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8058|🇺🇸 $MTSUY
4 Mitsui & Co 🇯🇵TYO:8031, 🇺🇸 $MITSY
5 Sumitomo Corp 🇯🇵TYO:8053|🇺🇸 $SSUMY

Chart @theTIKR
Disclosure: Long 1+2+3+4+5 piggyback.one/p/legal-discla…
3/X Chart 2: Market capitalization of equity and total enterpris
From 1992, following the slow depletion of Japan's 80s bubble, these Sogo Shosha stocks produced a mere 3% per year in mean/median annual total returns (CAGR, JPY) up until $BRK:s disclosure.

But, as we say in #valueinvesting "price is what you pay"...

Chart: @KoyfinCharts
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Now securities returns and fundamentals can be very different, even over decades.

As businesses, $BRK's Japanese trading houses are very exposed to the physical trading of #commodities and goods. They are cyclical.

Notice how the ROE% follows commodities?

Chart: @theTIKR

5/X Chart 3: Return on Common Equity (ROE) for 5 Japanese tradin
Under the hood of ROE, a promising trend is that the trading houses have deleveraged. From 16% median Equity/Assets in 2005 to 34% 2020

Why? A shift of focus
From: asset-intensive/high competition/lower margin trading
To: higher-return/higher-risk investing
Chart: @theTIKR
6/X Chart 4: Return on Assets (ROA in dark green on right) versu
The underlying value Berkshire got seems OK/possibly improving.

What about the price $BRK paid?

Not surprising to #valueinvesting community, Buffett can still wait for opportunistic discounts 🎣

Sogo Shoshas got there after 2010s commodities bear market 📉

Chart @theTIKR
7/X Chart 5: Trailing twelve months Price to Tangible Book Value
How has #Buffett & Co done 1 year + 10 months after $BRK's disclosure?

Returns: Not bad, >25% median&mean annual total returns (CAGR). Chart: @KoyfinCharts

Fundamentals: Trading houses benefit from pandemic supply constraints + commodities inflation

Valuation: Chart above

8/X Chart 6: Total Returns of 5 Japanese trading house stocks fr
Our takeaways after "piggybacking" Buffett & Berkshire to Japan?
...
piggyback.one/i/60642782/pig…

Summary of
“Buffett's Inflation Bet With The House(s)”
Issue 3 of new, 100% independent PiggyBack Letter @SubstackInc

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3) Free?🫰

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X/X Quote: "PiggyBack Takeaways  Our piggybacking of Warren

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More from @PiggybackStocks

Jun 21
1 New to investing?

2 Confused by #fintwit jargon?

3 Do we trust people presenting “valuation” to know what they don't know?
(Hint: “my-laser-eyed-golden-skin-ape-pic-is-worth-at-least-twice-your-diamond-skin-ape-pic” = relative pricing. Not valuation)

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Equity = Assets - Liabilities

But what asset and liability values are we going to use?

The answer as always: it depends on what we are going to use it for.

Here is a summary of equity metrics, from the most conservative:

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Price/”Net-Net” Working Capital (P/NNWC)

Classic Graham/Dodd strategy

Assumes: Use only most liquid current assets, deduct subjective discounts.

Conditions (often missed in screens):
1) Not consuming assets (melting ice cube/negative cash-flow)
2) Historical profitability

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