(1/18) We are moving FAR too slowly to stop #monkeypox in the US, esp. considering that summer parties are now in full swing. Here’s a quick recap + some thoughts on a better, faster, fairer response.
(2/18) Last Thursday we saw extreme demand for vaccines among the highest risk demographic, GBTQ men + our sexual networks, as NYC’s single vaccine site was OVERWHELMED w/in minutes. cbsnews.com/newyork/news/s…
(3/18) Just 1,000 doses for a city with 750k GBTQ men+ is NOT NEARLY ENOUGH. Like with other vaccination efforts, we’ll continue to run out of vaccines before we run out of arms.
nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc…
(4/18) It is important to understand that there are two vaccines against #monkeypox: a new one (Jynneos) and an old one (ACAM2000). (Both are also labeled for use against smallpox.) cdc.gov/smallpox/clini…
(5/18) Jynneos is the "new one"... a standard modern injectable vaccine. It requires 2 doses, doesn’t leave a scar, and is very safe to use on the vast majority of the population.
(6/18) ACAM2000 on the other hand is OLD. We haven’t used a vaccine like this in generations. It is one dose, uses a percussive administration technique, and is ROUGH on bodies & thus shouldn't be used on immunocomp'd people.
(7/18) The US only has ~70k doses of Jynneos (or half that for 2-dose regimes) on hand right now.
#unconfirmed side note: I've been told that's because of a Trump-era decision to allow ~20M doses to expire without replacing them.
(8/18) The Feds are scrambling to obtain more Jynneos: the Biden admin has reportedly purchased ~2M doses with less than a fifth of them scheduled to arrive by August 1. Those doses are READY TODAY, but are rumored to be held up by a delayed @US_FDA inspection. 😡
(9/18) Tonight the @JoeBiden admin is supposed to announce a new strategy on mpx. Here’s what I hope that includes: washingtonpost.com/health/2022/06…
(10/18) 1. WAIVE THE FDA INSPECTION. There are 100s of thousands of doses ready to take a 7 hour flight from Sweden TODAY. The EU's inspections have been done and are similar to ours. The doses are safe. GET THOSE HERE NOW! AND GET THEM INTO ARMS!
(11/18) 2. IMPLEMENT A BACKUP PLAN W/ ACAM2000. If something happens with the Jynneos doses or the outbreak explodes, we'll need a backup plan. Practitioners need training to use the riskier old vaccine. And, we need to start preparing advice for patients who may have take it.
(12/18) 3. RAMP UP TESTING. We’re testing only 20 people per day in NYC! My friend @reluctantlyjoe has been calling for increased testing for a MONTH!
(13/18) Testing has recently started to improve but the rate of current testing is still far too slow for ring vaccination of close contacts to be effective. washingtonpost.com/health/2022/06…
(14/18) 4. ORDER MORE JYNNEOS VACCINES. 2M doses is a good start, but we should prioritize a national stockpile that can actually be used in an emergency. We don’t have that today.
(15/18) 5. VACCINE ACCESS AND PRIORITIZATION. As Jynneos vaccines get distributed, we should learn from @nychealthy’s mistakes...
(15/18) ... Prioritize Jynneos for immunocomp’d GBTQs first. Work w/ orgs who can help with outreach to communities of color + GBTQs outside major cities. Not all gays live in Chelsea.
(17/18) 6. VACCINE EQUITY. Finally, we have to start being strategic, not reactive. Get vaccines to countries with endemic monkeypox and in addition to helping people, it will reduce the likelihood of another intl outbreak.
(18/18) 7. RELEASE THE DATA. The public is flying blind in the US right now. We don’t know the demographics of cases nor the number of tests being done. COVID taught us that data is essential: @CDCgov must fix this woeful deficiency.

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More from @donnellymjd

Dec 12, 2020
(1/15) As NY braces for more #COVID19 restrictions, let's understand why certain out-of-home activities are being restricted before others.

In particular, why restrict indoor dining and bars before salons and gyms?

Let's go to the #data.
(2/15) This chart comes from data reported by @NYGovCuomo yesterday. The table presented by the governor is based on contact tracing. This sort of data is rarely published and is super valuable to making good science-based policies.

But, there's a problem...
(3/15) Since this data is based on contact tracing, it relies on being able to identify a particular place as a probable location of transmission.

The result? It may overstate the relative importance of household transmission versus all other categories.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 1, 2020
(1/) Hey Small Business Owners! Are you aware of the new federal Payroll Protection Program? It can help you keep your employees on the payroll during this period through FULLY FORGIVABLE LOANS! Read on for more details...
(2/) A one page summary of the program can be found here on the @USTreasury's website. Image
(3/) And here's a link to the application form. Protect yourselves and your employees from the worst of the #COVID19 economic impacts. home.treasury.gov/system/files/1… Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 20, 2020
(1/) Five days ago I forecast that NYC’s hospitals would be at capacity with #coronavirus cases by Mar 30. I was wrong. New data suggest that #NYC’s hospitals will reach capacity of approx. 3,000 cases by Mar 24. #shutdownNYC
medium.com/@donnellymjd/c…
(2/) While there is now nothing we can do to prevent reaching capacity short of immediately adding beds, we can prevent additional deaths and hospitalizations by fully shutting down NYC except for absolutely essential services, like Italy’s current restrictions.
(3/) Why was the first forecast wrong by a few days? Detection rate. In the prior worst case scenario, we assumed an overall detection rate of 18%, which implied fewer undetected cases. New hospitalization data imply an estimated detection rate of just 5.6% today. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 18, 2020
(1/) The @imperialcollege study by @MRC_Outbreak on #COVID19 is incredibly important. You should read it. How do their approaches and conclusions for the US compare to mine? tl;dr: they are very similar. More detail in the thread.
(2/) Comparing charts for overall deaths from their model and mine, you'll see that the Imperial College model finds that we stop adding significant numbers to the death count by mid July. My model puts that around June. Total Deaths - IC: 2.2M, My forecast: 1.2M
(3/) Without govt intervention: The IC study finds US cases peak in mid-May. My model peaks in late April.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 12, 2020
(1/11) The #NYC Region is in trouble. Our #COVID19 case load is growing so quickly that we risk running out of hospital beds in UNDER TWO WEEKS. To avoid a crisis at our hospitals, we need to act now. 1,200 hospital beds are not enough. @BilldeBlasio @NYCSpeakerCoJo @NYGovCuomo
(2/11) @BilldeBlasio says we have ONLY 1,200 beds for #COVID19. (1010wins.radio.com/articles/de-bl…) At this rate, we could see over half a million severely sick people at once. There’s no way the NYC hospitals can handle that influx. The ill who can’t get care will die at higher rates.
(3/11) In more than 97% of model runs, NYC runs out of hospital capacity under current policies. To see how this model works, take a look at my note for a full explanation of what’s going on with #COVID19 and how I calculate these forecasts. medium.com/@donnellymjd/n…
Read 11 tweets

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