1/ 04 Juillet 2022 - mid day Report -
No major changes about the Gen stituation in Ukraine. except for the area #Luhansk which is now under Ru control. Ukrainian defenders are getting to better positions to defend against Ru agression.
details in Gen staff report.
#UkraineMap
No major changes about the Gen stituation in Ukraine. except for the area #Luhansk which is now under Ru control. Ukrainian defenders are getting to better positions to defend against Ru agression.
details in Gen staff report.
#UkraineMap
2/ a map of Klynove area as a reminder
3/ Still some Ru pressure going on in the #Sumy Oblast.
reminder :
reminder :
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1543203586959630336
4/ In the #Slovyansk direction, enemy units are trying to establish control over the settlements of #Bohorodychne, #Mazanivka, and #Dolyna through assault operations. Fighting continues.
5/ UK intelligence: Russia to focus on capturing Donetsk Oblast after taking Luhansk Oblast.
July 4, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported that Donetsk Oblast, a large segment of which is under Ukrainian control, is likely Russia’s next target. (no need to be genius here)
July 4, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported that Donetsk Oblast, a large segment of which is under Ukrainian control, is likely Russia’s next target. (no need to be genius here)
6/ petite note additionnelle. hier des personnes évoquaient les chiffres de mes calculs. selon le rens US c'est min 25% de l'armée Ru qui est HS et selon les Ukr 30%. au vu de la taille du front, il n'y a plus bcp de marges pour les Ru surtout si les mun manquent. qq mois encore.
7/ just a quick reminder for people who are "freaking out" now..
one area took 70 days to conquer by the russian
the other took 15 days (and they took, back then, 20 areas (20x) like that).
so imagine what will happen with forces constantly decreasing for Russians..
one area took 70 days to conquer by the russian
the other took 15 days (and they took, back then, 20 areas (20x) like that).
so imagine what will happen with forces constantly decreasing for Russians..
8/ so as i explained in a tweet month ago or so (Hello @srdserge :)
Russians are going through waves of attacks each time less powerful and that took more time, sometimes like for lyssichansk (because of particular situation) it appears to go faster, but globally not.
Russians are going through waves of attacks each time less powerful and that took more time, sometimes like for lyssichansk (because of particular situation) it appears to go faster, but globally not.
9/ Russian will have some more gains as we can expect for the last couple of months, both the intel services of Ukraine and Uk have talked about it, and we will certainly see so until the end of the summer.
by September we will have vision/limits of their army (material).
by September we will have vision/limits of their army (material).
10/ quick thread about this comment (link below).
i did not talk about it, but Ukr intel (seems confirmed) said before W-E almost 100k wounded russians (which would fit more my gen "guesstimate" of their losses than the official "count" about it .
i did not talk about it, but Ukr intel (seems confirmed) said before W-E almost 100k wounded russians (which would fit more my gen "guesstimate" of their losses than the official "count" about it .
https://twitter.com/flashman_andy/status/1543928823636529152
11/ but more "cautious" ppl might even want to talk about 25-27k KIA and times 4 (x4) would make the 100k wounded soldiers..
anyway that's about 120k Russian soldiers that won't come back soon (some, with minor injuries and if they are under contract might want to go on- but
anyway that's about 120k Russian soldiers that won't come back soon (some, with minor injuries and if they are under contract might want to go on- but
12/ based on reports this would not represent more than 10-15% of them.. so no more than 2k Russians soldiers..
at the opposite & even if Ukr wounded soldiers are absolutely exhausted and asks for some rest, when they are at the hospital after couple of weeks ask to go back
at the opposite & even if Ukr wounded soldiers are absolutely exhausted and asks for some rest, when they are at the hospital after couple of weeks ask to go back
13/ merci à @CedricMas qui vient de me faire passer son lien pour bien signifier que nous avons une appréciation commune (et partagée) des temps comptés & réels des épisodes / séquences sur ce conflit.
(j'étais même été un peu trop "sympa" avec les Russes)
(j'étais même été un peu trop "sympa" avec les Russes)
https://twitter.com/CedricMas/status/1543916123602681858
14/ j'en profite pour remettre ici un petit schéma que j'avais commencé fin Avril et qui représente l'armée russe (av/pendant) avec les forces actives/l'ensemble (ratio 1:6) de l'armée (petit triangle c'est forces Donbass) (triangle orange 40 BTGs non engagés) etc.
30% forces HS
30% forces HS
15/ Nota Bene : about 100k russians soldiers wounded (questions asked in DM)
U r right to ask because i'm not sure it's 100% Russians, it could be a mix of Chechens and Syrians etc.
Also there is a diff between 25-30% of Russian material army down and nb of casualties, replaced.
U r right to ask because i'm not sure it's 100% Russians, it could be a mix of Chechens and Syrians etc.
Also there is a diff between 25-30% of Russian material army down and nb of casualties, replaced.
19/ The airfield in occupied Melitopol is still on fire.
According to RIA #Melitopol, there are many 200th and wounded orcs there.
5 helicopters and about 10 fighters were permanently based at the air base, every morning they flew towards #Zaporozhye.
According to RIA #Melitopol, there are many 200th and wounded orcs there.
5 helicopters and about 10 fighters were permanently based at the air base, every morning they flew towards #Zaporozhye.
20/ Map of #Popasnaya #Popasna, completely destroyed houses are marked in red, the map was created by military analysts based pic is on actual TV footage. (image given to me earlier today)
Russian won't be able to defend when reverse gear clutch engaged.
Russian won't be able to defend when reverse gear clutch engaged.
23/ Russia is on fire again – this time in Tiva
https://twitter.com/5channel/status/1543935669805846528
24/ i'm waiting for mooooooooooore !-)
(people & friends following me for months knows)
(people & friends following me for months knows)
https://twitter.com/UAS_VISION/status/1543867275341619202
27/ point of view of Igor #Girkin (Special trial for this guy is still needed...)
translated by @mdmitri91
on some points he is not so relevant but there is quite interesting takes on some other points.. a good read.
translated by @mdmitri91
on some points he is not so relevant but there is quite interesting takes on some other points.. a good read.
28/ and let's not forget the financial aspect of this war...
right now (4 months in) Russia is using his reserve, also sell gold and benefits from the price of gas....
but let's see how they deal with this in a year or 2...
right now (4 months in) Russia is using his reserve, also sell gold and benefits from the price of gas....
but let's see how they deal with this in a year or 2...
https://twitter.com/Ukrinform_News/status/1543986270292017153
29/ End of the day - last report
no major changes - i'll resume tomorrow for a new map
you can check this morning maps. same areas -same cities involved
Also i have infos as usual about Russian scouting units near #Siversk but they are the ones who are going to change anything!-)
no major changes - i'll resume tomorrow for a new map
you can check this morning maps. same areas -same cities involved
Also i have infos as usual about Russian scouting units near #Siversk but they are the ones who are going to change anything!-)
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