Thread by @anunezjimenez

How bad is the EU's taxonomy "green" pass on gas? Worse than I thought. A thread 🧵

Based on @BeyondCoal's fantastic database, there are 157 #coal power plants in Europe.

Within EU-27, the operating capacity of coal power plants in 2021 was 127 GW emitting about 388 Mt CO2 per year. These are my reference numbers.

Data: beyond-coal.eu/database/

Let's say fossil gas power plants replace 10%, 50% or all existing coal power plants in the EU before 2030.

Taking into account the taxonomy limits projects to 115% of the capacity of the coal power plant they replace, added fossil gas capacity would be between 15 and 146 GW.

Depending on how many hours the new fossil gas power plants run (CF=capacity factor), and assuming 55% efficiency, the gas consumption of the new power plants could add between 2 and 200 bcm to the EU's gas demand. Increasing 0.5% to 41% the EU's 2019 gas consumption (482 bcm).

But switching coal for gas will lower emissions, right?

First, low-carbon generation should replace coal power plants, not fossil gas power plants.

Second, CO2 emissions savings depends on how many hours how many gas plants run and are not as substantial as some (I) may think.*

The EU taxonomy sets a 550 kgCO2/kW annual limit for fossil gas power plants replacing coal plants.

If enforced, the limit will ensure at least 80% direct CO2 emission reductions BUT require plants to run at around 16% capacity factors.

Are any plants profitable at 16% CF?

The 550 kg CO2/kW limit, however, extends over a period of 20 years.

So, in my view, it is far more likely that fossil gas power plants will run at CF of around 40%, limiting emissions savings to between 47% and 95% depending on how much coal power fossil gas plants replace.

Overall, if a large share of coal power plants is replaced with fossil gas power plants, the EU will have to make a much greater effort to achieve climate neutrality.

Sadly, having fossil gas in the taxonomy of sustainable investments makes this scenario more likely./fin

*400 gCO2/kWh is the median carbon intensity for fossil gas combined cycle power plants according to the IPCC 2018. But lifecycle emissions are about 25% higher, and every week we have new research showing that methane emissions are a worse problem than we thought.