Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Jul 13 11 tweets 10 min read
1/9 – Jul 13 to Jul 19 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 – Western Europe
- Rise/increase/plateau in #COVID19 epid. activ: FR (R-eff=1.12); IT=1.13 CH=1.14; BE=1.16; DK=1.17; SE=1.11/NL=1.07; AU=1.06; FIN=1.06; IRL=1.05/DE=1.02; LUX=0.99;SP=0.98; ICL=0.96; PT=0.95;
- Landing: NO;
- Medium to very high mort. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Albania (R-eff=1.28); Serbia=1.27; Estonia=1.40; Slovenia=1.22; Bulgaria=1.21; Latvia=1.20;
- Rise in Lithuania=1.15; Greece=1.12; Croatia=1.17; Slovakia=1.16;
- Very low to high mortality
- No report from Ukraine ImageImageImage
4/9 – Africa
- Rise/Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Mauritania (R-eff=1.16) / Tunisia=1.35, Equatorial Guinea=1.43, very low to low mortality
- Slowly landing in Morocco=0.91, very low mortality
- Green everywhere else, but lot of underreporting Image
5/9 – Middle-East
- Rise/surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Iraq (R-eff=1.17); Lebanon=1.13/ Iran=1.38;
- Cyprus=1.17, close to the region, is rising too;
- Plateau in Israel=0.95; Qatar=0.98; UAE=0.96; Kuwait=1.05;
- No to high mortality
- Reported as safe elsewhere ImageImageImage
6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.35); SK=1.33; Fiji=1.26, very low mort.
- Rise/increase: Malaysia=1.13; [NZ=1.15/ Australia=1.07], very low [high/med] mort.
- Landing: Taiwan=0.86, high mort. ImageImageImage
7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Strict lockdowns which are now back again in several cities of China=1.17;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.06;
- Worrying (lack of) news on #COVID19 epidemic activity from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere Image
8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.07) is increasing in #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort. 87.6% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.03 is plateauing, medium mort. 79.1% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 2 states. ImageImageImageImage
9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.33); Paraguay =1.37; Peru=1.28/ Mexico=1.19; Argentina=1.10;
- Increase/Plateau/slowly landing: Guyana=1.08/ Panama=1.04; Colombia=1.01; Brazil=0.99; Belize=0.96/Chile=0.93;
- Very low - medium mort. ImageImageImage
10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Jul 15
1/4 - “On peut raisonnablement penser que le pic de la vague de contaminations est passé en France et passe actuellement sur une grande partie de l’Europe. L’expérience portugaise nous permet d’appuyer cette analyse.” leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
2/4 - Si la France suit la dynamique portugaise de sa récente vague #BA5, alors le pic de mortalité pourrait être quinze jours après celui des contaminations, soit en France début juillet, avec un pic d’hospitalisations le précédant de quelques jours.
3/4 - Au Portugal, la mortalité #COVID19 enregistrée sur quatre mois, début avril - fin juillet, devrait être de 3000 décès. Si l’on poursuit l’analogie, en France, entre mi-mai et mi-septembre, on pourrait enregistrer 20’000 décès #COVID19.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 15
1/9 – Jul 15 to Jul 21 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 – Western Europe
- Rise/increase/plateau in #COVID19 epid. activ: UK (R-eff=1.16); BE=1.16; CH=1.14; FR=1.11; IT=1.10/ DK=1.07; SE=1.09; NL=1.06; AU=1.06/ FIN=1.01; IRL=1.01; DE=1.01; LUX=0.98;SP=0.96;
- (Slow) landing: (ICL=0.94); PT;
- Medium to high mortality. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epid activ: Pol (R-eff=1.37); Rom=1.33; Alb=1.25; Serb=1.28; Estn=1.36; Hung=1.27; Bulg=1.20;
- Rise in Cz=1.19; Latv=1.18; Lith=1.18; Greece=1.11; Croat=1.15; Slovk=1.13;Slovn=1.18;
- Very low to high mortality Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 14
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.11) experiences a rise in #COVID19 cases, medium mortality. 81.3% > 1 dose.
153,980 cases and 89 deaths/day to be reported by Jul 20, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Jul 14 to Jul 17: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImageImage
2/4 – One mainland Région seems close to peak in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality:
[Ile-de-France (R-eff=1.09)]; Image
3/4 – Twelve mainland Régions are still rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [high] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.15);
[Bg-Fr-C=1.17];
[Bret=1.14];
C-V-de-L=1.16;
[Corse=1.14];
Gd-Est=1.15;
HdF=1.15;
Norm=1.13;
Nouv-Aquit=1.18;
Occit=1.14;
PdL=1.16;
[PACA=1.10]. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13
1/4 - “Plus on a été infecté dans le passé récent de cette pandémie et, bien sûr, plus on est à risque de réinfections au cours des vagues actuelles et à venir. Le concept de l’immunité collective est battu en brèche par le #SARSCoV2.” atlantico.fr/article/decryp…
2/4 - “Une infection #COVID19 génère cependant d’autres réactions dans notre organisme, notamment la production d’interféron, qui est un puissant antiviral naturel. Cet interféron empêche certainement quelques temps une nouvelle réinfection, durant quatre semaines? Six semaines?”
3/4 - “Non seulement une réinfection par le coronavirus n’atténue en rien les symptômes, au contraire, une étude chez des vétérans US, a montré que les réinfections étaient associées à une augmentation de la morbidité sévère, des hosp et décès du #COVID19, et des #LongCovid.”
Read 4 tweets
Jul 13
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.12) experiences a rise in #COVID19 cases, medium mortality. 81.3% > 1 dose.
158,309 cases and 81 deaths/day to be reported by Jul 19, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Jul 13 to Jul 16: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – One mainland Région is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality:
[Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.20)];
3/4 – Twelve mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [med-high] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.16)];
[Bg-Fr-C=1.18];
[Bret=1.15];
[C-V-de-L=1.16];
[Corse=1.17];
Gd-Est=1.16;
[HdF=1.16];
[IdF=1.11];
[Norm=1.14];
[Occit=1.15];
[PdL=1.17].
[PACA=1.10].
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13
1/8 - “A fresh wave of #COVID19 is deluging much of the world this month, fuelled by the rapid takeover of the latest iteration of #Omicron. This marks the third substantial wave from the variant’s offshoots in seven months.”
ft.com/content/63dcc4…
2/8 - “The attenuation of severe disease has been hard-won, chiefly through the biggest vaccination programme in history, and accumulated infections. Being infected with #COVID19 now carries roughly 30 x less risk of hospit. than it did 2 years ago, and 60 x less risk of death.”
3/8 - “This has transformed our relationship with the virus, with many aspects of life returning to pre-pandemic norms. But while the acute risks with #Covid may have waned, the virus is still causing profound disruption to the health of millions, with repercussions for society.”
Read 8 tweets

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