Thread by @SabFis3

Noteworthy quote from #Lavrov today. By pointing out that the "geography" of #RussiainvadesUkraine has changed + is no longer about the #Donbas but about the southern "and several other" territories, he seems to put in perspective his boss's statement in Tehran last night. 🧵1/8

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336

Dodging the question whether he was ready to meet #Zelensky, #Putin referred to the Istanbul Communiqué of 29/03, which (would have) stipulated, among other things, the withdrawal of 🇷🇺troops behind the lines of 24/02. "We almost had a deal", he said. 2/8

kremlin.ru/events/preside…

The Istanbul Communique died a lonely death in the weeks that followed, and 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 negotiations ground to a halt. Why Putin referred to it so explicitly yesterday - I have no idea. But apparently there was a need for ex-post clarification in Moscow. 3/8

Indeed Lavrov's statement is the clearest we have heard on the upcoming annexations. 🇷🇺has been working hard to build quasi-statelets in the southern occupied territories - an endeavour that is far from being easy. The local population resists, and 🇺🇦 increases mil pressure. 4/8

I also wonder if and how Putin and #Erdogan talked about the south of 🇺🇦 in Tehran yesterday. Difficult to imagine 🇹🇷 would appreciate more annexations along the norther Black Sea coast and the inevitable geo-strategic implications in the Black Sea region. 5/8

I discussed this with people in Moscow at the end of June. They were all convinced that the annexation was a done deal. They also understood that this would be the next level of escalation. Every 🇺🇦 attack, they said, would be seen as directed against 🇷🇺 proper. 6/8

BTW, hardly anyone thought 🇷🇺had been serious in the negotiations so far.

The south is key for the future development and outcome of 🇷🇺's war against 🇺🇦. The West needs to tailor its mil assistance to empower 🇺🇦 to pressure 🇷🇺and regain territory in the south. 7/8

This is also the precondition for any future negotiations worthy of the name - including a potential return to the reasonable provisions of the Istanbul Communique.

But we (as in: 🇩🇪) cannot even seem to manage the #Ringtausch with Poland...

8/End

P.S.: Enable 🇺🇦 to pressure 🇷🇺, regain territory in the south and make impossible the annexation of #Kherson, #Zaporizhzhya - that should be the goal of Western support in the coming weeks and months. Just to be clear.