Sabine Fischer Profile picture
Jul 20 9 tweets 4 min read
Noteworthy quote from #Lavrov today. By pointing out that the "geography" of #RussiainvadesUkraine has changed + is no longer about the #Donbas but about the southern "and several other" territories, he seems to put in perspective his boss's statement in Tehran last night. 🧵1/8
Dodging the question whether he was ready to meet #Zelensky, #Putin referred to the Istanbul Communiqué of 29/03, which (would have) stipulated, among other things, the withdrawal of 🇷🇺troops behind the lines of 24/02. "We almost had a deal", he said. 2/8…
The Istanbul Communique died a lonely death in the weeks that followed, and 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 negotiations ground to a halt. Why Putin referred to it so explicitly yesterday - I have no idea. But apparently there was a need for ex-post clarification in Moscow. 3/8
Indeed Lavrov's statement is the clearest we have heard on the upcoming annexations. 🇷🇺has been working hard to build quasi-statelets in the southern occupied territories - an endeavour that is far from being easy. The local population resists, and 🇺🇦 increases mil pressure. 4/8
I also wonder if and how Putin and #Erdogan talked about the south of 🇺🇦 in Tehran yesterday. Difficult to imagine 🇹🇷 would appreciate more annexations along the norther Black Sea coast and the inevitable geo-strategic implications in the Black Sea region. 5/8
I discussed this with people in Moscow at the end of June. They were all convinced that the annexation was a done deal. They also understood that this would be the next level of escalation. Every 🇺🇦 attack, they said, would be seen as directed against 🇷🇺 proper. 6/8
BTW, hardly anyone thought 🇷🇺had been serious in the negotiations so far.

The south is key for the future development and outcome of 🇷🇺's war against 🇺🇦. The West needs to tailor its mil assistance to empower 🇺🇦 to pressure 🇷🇺and regain territory in the south. 7/8
This is also the precondition for any future negotiations worthy of the name - including a potential return to the reasonable provisions of the Istanbul Communique.

But we (as in: 🇩🇪) cannot even seem to manage the #Ringtausch with Poland...

P.S.: Enable 🇺🇦 to pressure 🇷🇺, regain territory in the south and make impossible the annexation of #Kherson, #Zaporizhzhya - that should be the goal of Western support in the coming weeks and months. Just to be clear.

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More from @SabFis3

May 28
The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.

To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)

or a sanctions for grain deal (West partially lifting sanctions and 🇷🇺 ending blockade of 🇺🇦 ports - which is what Moscow cunningly demands): please be aware that you are corroborating this fatal belief in Moscow! (2/8)
@meduzaproject says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
May 25
🇺🇦’s effort to defend itself against #RussiasWar is jeopardized on various levels. Western leaders must be careful not to undermine it. „Freezing“ the conflict along the current lines of combat would be extremely disadvantageous for 🇺🇦 and set a dangerous precedent for Europe.
🇷🇺 intensifies its efforts to complete the occupation of the Donbas and the southeast of 🇺🇦, putting 🇺🇦's army under enormous strain. 🇷🇺 is simultaneously working to transform the newly occ terr into de facto statelets (building administrative structures, handing out passports).
In March Kyiv desperately searched for negotiated solutions in the face of 🇷🇺’s mil superiority. This let to a 10 point plan presented in Istanbul on 29/03, combining restoration of the 23/02 contact line and talks about Crimea‘s status with neutrality and security guarantees.
Read 11 tweets
May 22
Alice Schwarzer findet @kstade jetzt sei "ein guter Zeitpunkt" für Verhandlungen und "sowohl Putin als auch Selenskyj verschlimmern durch Macho-Gehabe die Situation".
Wow. Da hat Alice Schwarzer aber einiges nicht verstanden. 1/6
Die Behauptung beiderseitiger Verantwortung für den Krieg ist grundfalsch. 🇷🇺führt einen völkerrechtswidrigen und verbrecherischen Angriffskrieg. 🇺🇦 führt einen legitimen Verteidigungskrieg. Gleichwohl lieben ganz linke und ganz rechte Kreise in 🇩🇪 dieses unsinnige Argument. 2/6
Die 🇷🇺Politik ist schon lange von Chauvinismus und Misogynie gekennzeichnet. Das zeigt sich nach Innen, wo ein vollständig von Männern dominiertes, diktatorisches Regime nun die letzten Räume (nicht nur) für feministische Aktivitäten schließt - von LGBTI ganz zu schweigen. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 12
Ein paar Gedanken dazu, was nach 1.5 Monaten #RusslandsKrieg jetzt nötig ist.
1. 🇺🇦 braucht schnell mehr Waffen, leicht und schwer, um die 🇷🇺 Offensive im Osten und Südosten abzuwehren und Gelände zurückzugewinnen. Ausbildungszeiten etc. sind kein Argument.
Der Krieg wird dauern – und zu viel Zeit ist schon verloren gegangen. Die Frage ist jetzt: womit können Charkiw, Mariupol, Mikolajiw, Odesa etc. verteidigt werden? Dann sollte gemeinsam mit den Partnern alles daran gesetzt werden, dass das in 🇺🇦 ankommt. 2/9
2. Waffen und Sanktionen/Energieembargo sind nicht alternativ, sondern komplementär – sie haben unterschiedliche Zeithorizonte. Waffen helfen 🇺🇦 jetzt, sich zu verteidigen. Sanktionen reduzieren mittelfristig 🇷🇺Fähigkeit, den Krieg zu führen. Beides ist absolut notwendig. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Apr 6
There seems to be a notable shift in RU‘s propaganda this week. On 04/04 RIA Novosti published an article by a certain Timofey Sergeytsev which spells out (again) some of the key RU war goals: 🧵 1/9

„denazification needs to be pursued by the victor“ (= no compromise with UA is possible) and „the denazified country cannot be sovereign“ (= independent UA is to be wiped off the map). But Sergeytsev‘s interpretation of „denazification“ differs significantly 2/9
from the previous use of the term, incl in official statements. The gist of his „oeuvre“ is that „denazification“ not only concerns UA pol leadership, but needs to be extended to ALL OF UA, bc the majority of the population supported UA’s „fascist leadership“. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Mar 24
I was asked to think about possible end states and European security for an expert roundtable. It is still very early to discuss this, but here are my thoughts. I organize them around the question of the existence of an independent UA state, 🧵1/12
because this is what this war is about: RU has attacked to destroy UA as an independent state; UA fights back to preserve their independent statehood.
4 scenarios:

1. RU wins, UA ceases to exist as an independent state. Moscow installs some kind of puppet regime in Kyiv, 2/12
large parts of UA will be permanently occupied by RU and proxy troops; like BY UA will become an integral part of the space controlled by RU, and this space will have a direct boundary with the EU and NATO. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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