Thread by @amenka

THREAD
1/ #Russia’s reasons to agree #grain deal and deblock ports in #Ukraine:
1. Exemptions from sanctions for Putin’s cronies banks and billions $ from food exports
2. Russia’s agricultural sector is crucially dependent on import

For @CarnegieEndow
carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight…

2/ Russia got $11bln from grain exports in 2021, $10 in 2010. It’s very important part of state revenues. This year a record harvest is expected (130 min tonnes), and correspondingly high profits. Beneficiaries of the largest agricultural holdings are close to the #Kremlin

3/ Dmitry Patrushev, the Minister of Agriculture, is the eldest son of the secretary of the Security Council. The owners of Demetra-Holding (second largest exporter of grain) are VTB and the Marathon Group of Alexander Vinokurov, son-in-law of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov etc

4/ Exemptions from #EU sanctions for transactions with food and pharmaceuticals got the Bank Rossiya aka bank of #Putin’s friends; #Promsvyazbank - bank of defense industry; Novikombank - captive bank of Rostech corporation (produce weapons)

/5 #Russia also crucially dependent on imports os seeds: farmers import 53% of #corn seeds; 73% of sunflower; 90% of potato seeds, about 70% of rape seeds, 30% to 90% of fruit and berry seeds. Russia produces only 1/3 of needed veterinary pharma, 70% is imported

/6 In 2021, Russia imported 75% of agricultural equipment. The industry is threatened by archaization: the use of primitive fertilizers, crop protection chemicals, and harvesting machines. All this reduces harvest. Without imports Russia's food security may be under threat.

Thanks to @CarnegieEndow for the floor and @AlexGabuev for inspiration