Thread by @TheStudyofWar

Geolocated social media footage from July 25 shows that troops of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) have advanced into Novoluhanske. Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces are also taking control of the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant. /1

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1551732603803340800

Russian Telegram channels began reporting on Russian attempts to advance on Novoluhanske as early as May 25, which means that Russian troops have been unsuccessfully attacking this single location for two months. /2

Regardless, the capture of Novoluhanske and the Vuhledar Power Plant will not generate an advantageous salient along which Russian troops will be able to advance northwards towards Bakhmut. /3

The Russian seizure of Novoluhanske and the Vuhledar Power Plant flattens the Ukrainian defensive line rather than perpetuating a salient, thereby limiting the advantage the occupation of those areas gives to the Russian forces. /4

The operations around Novoluhanske indicate that Russian forces are suffering the same limitations in terms of their ability to effectively use battlefield geometry (such as the creation of effective salients) to their advantage. /5

This deficiency is exacerbated by the extreme difficulty Russian forces regularly have in capturing small and relatively insignificant bits of terrain over weeks or months of fighting. /6

Russian forces are unlikely to be able to effectively leverage the capture of Novoluhanske to take Bakhmut, and the limitations they are facing on the battlefield will likely contribute to the culmination of the offensive in Donbas before capturing Bakhmut or Slovyansk. /7