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Jul 27 • 17 tweets • 10 min read
BBC News piece by @Matt_Murphy15 on the work to establish safe passages for convoys of grain ships out of Odesa, Chornomorsk & Pivdennyi, following the Turkey & @UN brokered deal, signed on 23rd July, to relieve at least this part of Russia's #blockade bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Work seemingly progresses apace, with the Russian delegation, under Rear Admiral Eduard Luik, arriving in Istanbul yesterday to join the new, joint grain co-ordination centre, which has apparently already opened.
Whilst Ukrainian authorities have released a NAVTEX with a start date of today, outlining the extent of the safe corridors & that the convoys are to be led from the ports by single, Ukrainian-flagged tugs, to an area of inspection.
The advertised timetable is for the first convoy to depart "this week", which, as @NavalHistWar has suggested, raises all sorts of questions as to the feasibility - if initially ships already stuck in the ports, who will crew them (some crews have left)?
Even if crews can be found, who will insure them & indeed any other ships making that rather hazardous journey (the key answer here is likely to also be Turkey, whose trapped vessels have been sailing from Mariupol, while others have sailed the Azov routes)maritime-executive.com/article/russia…
Plus, of course, there remains the issue of mines, emphasised at the bottom of the NAVTEX. Obviously the Ukrainian Navy knows where theirs are, likewise the Russians. There is also mention of a 3rd, non-NATO country (Egypt would be my guess🤷‍♂️) sweeping.
However, the immediacy of the first departure, Ukraine's lack of minehunting capability & the lack of any third-party minesweepers arriving in the Black Sea, all suggest a lack of overlap between the two as there is no time for a proper minesweeping op.
The degree to which this translates into actual safety for any grain-carrying shipping remains, of course, open to question, though it is interesting to note that the Turkish Navy has sent the frigate Yildirim
And one of its Gür Class submarines through the Straits into the Black Sea in the last couple of days, though it should be emphasised whether these are reinforcements for the convoying operation, or simply a regular shuffling of ships is currently unclear.
Useful representation of the likely maritime safe corridor for grain-carrying ships to & from Odesa.
It looks like there is an answer to the question of insurance for any grain ships leaving Odesa, as @reutersCarolynC reports the Chairman of @LloydsofLondon, @BNCB, stating that the market's participants are prepared to cover the shipments. #UkraineWar reuters.com/markets/europe…
Meanwhile, @LLIntelligence has spotted vessel movements inside the three Ukrainian ports designated under the agreement - Chornomorske, Odesa & Yuzhne
Fresh movement on the agreed safe passages for convoys of grain ships out of Odesa, Chornomorsk & Pivdennyi, with Ukrainian President @ZelenskyyUa & the ambassadors of the G7 countries (including @MelSimmonsFCDO) apparently in Odesa to publicise it. Image
Despite the obvious concentration on Odesa, aided by the presence of @ZelenskyyUa & the G7 ambassadors, the most likely point of departure for the first grain ship to test the agreed "safe passages" is Chornomorsk.
Interesting observation & *possible* identity of the first grain ship to test the agreed "safe passages" from Ukrainian ports.
For a great dive into some details of the operation of the agreed safe passages for ships from Ukrainian ports, catch this @LloydsList #podcast🎧🗣️with Neil Roberts of @LMAupdates & Anna Biliuga of Eurogal Services (@LloydsofLondon's agents inside Odesa).
One key point to bear in mind regarding any delays to the departure of the first ship is, as Anna Biliuga notes (11:30), the agreement to implement the corridors was signed without many of the details being worked out, so operators are having to improvise. …list.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141767/The-…

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More from @navalhistorian

Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 28
1) A little - slightly belated - #thread🧵on this great catch by @NavyLookout of the British Government's (rather low-key) announcement on 11th July that @RFAArgus "represents the optimum solution to support a forward-deployed Littoral Response Group", & some of its implications.
2) That she was under consideration for the role was announced to @CommonsDefence on 6th July, however, that it is actually to be @RFAArgus is still something of a surprise, given one of the Bay Class has been publicly earmarked for it since March 2021.
3) Nonethless, as surprises go, it is, in many respects, a pleasant & welcome one. Until recently @RFAArgus had been scheduled to decommission without replacement in 2024, depriving the @RoyalNavy of potentially vital capabilities for Littoral Response.
Read 20 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 3
1) It looks like the Russians have been trying to finally clear the wreck of their amphibious landing ship Saratov, that was sunk alongside at Berdyansk at the end of March. #UkraineWar
2) It's worth noting the upper deck & superstructure are largely gone. These were still very much in evidence after the fire/explosion caused by the Tochka-U strike, but at least one of the dockside cranes appears to have been reactivated for the purpose of demolishing the wreck.
3) This work suggests that the explosion in the area noted by @CovertShores & others on 28th June was potentially either demolition work, or - far more likely - either an accidental, or controlled explosion of unspent ammunition recovered from the wreck.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
Jul 3
Interesting. It does look like the Russians placed at least one, long-range artillery piece on Snake Island - a Tornado-G MLRS with a 90km range, presumably to try counter-battery fire to forestall what actually happened, though one suspects issues of aim without things like the
aerially assisted direction the Ukrainians had from their TB2s, limited ammunition supply, sheer disparity in firepower against that available (& suppliable) ashore were insurmountable. Inability to find cover would almost certainly have been an issue too, though it is worth...
noting that - remarkably - that Tornado-G did seem to manage to survive the Ukrainian onslaught, right up until it was at its most vulnerable - packed up & ready to be evacuated from the pier.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
May 30
1) Useful #new article by @NavyLookout on the state of play with the @RFAHeadquarters, going through issues such as crewing difficulties, @RFAFortVictoria & the lack of the Fleet Solid Support replacement, the mothballing of the Wave Class & consequent strain on the Tide Class.
2) There does, however, seem to be a rather concerning issue highlighted in the passage on the Bay Class amphibious landing ships, relating to the date at which the conversion work to @RFALymeBay for her to operate at the heart of Littoral Response Group (South) will be completed
3) Littoral Response Group (South), centred on what is now known to be @RFALymeBay & @40commando, to be based at Duqm, Oman, is *the* big ticket, permanently deployed naval presence in Britain's Indo-Pacific tilt & is supposed to deploy in 2023 according to the Integrated Review.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
May 29
The paddle steamer Gracie Fields had been taken up into @RoyalNavy service at the start of #WW2 as a minesweeper & was bombed off La Panne on this day 1940, sinking the following morning. She became synonymous with the #Dunkirk evacuation thanks to JB Priestly's BBC broadcast.
"the glittering queen of our local line" Gracie Fields was one of "the little holiday steamers [that] made an excursion to hell and came back glorious" bbc.co.uk/archive/postsc…
HMS Pangbourne, commanded by Lt/Cdr Francis Douglas-Watson, was one of the @RoyalNavy's purpose-built Hunt Class minesweepers, built in #WW1, she survived #WW2 & along with others helped clear mines, as well as rescue troops from #Dunkirk
Read 4 tweets
Dr Phil Weir Profile picture
May 28
The @RFAHeadquarters is absolutely vital for the @RoyalNavy's carrier strike group, allowing it to operate for long periods at sea, not only supplying it with fuel from Tide Class tankers like @RFATidespring, but also ammunition & other solid stores from @RFAFortVictoria. ImageImage
With @RFAFortVictoria now a unique vessel after the scrapping of her sister ship RFA Fort George, back in 2011-2013 it is, of course, vital that the much delayed Fleet Solid Support ship replacements are constructed A.S.A.P. in order to keep this going.
It's not just carrier strike, either. The @RFAHeadquarters is also vital to the amphibious Littoral Response Groups that help deliver the @RoyalMarines around the world, not only supplying fuel, but also crewing the Bay Class landing ships that will be at the heart of the force. Image
Read 6 tweets

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