Charles Lister Profile picture
Aug 1, 2022 14 tweets 16 min read Read on X
Wow -- #Zawahiri killed in a U.S. drone strike in the #Kabul area over the weekend -- the 1st strike since the #Taliban's takeover of #Afghanistan in August 2021.

BIG blow for #AlQaeda's central leadership, but huge questions about how he was located (or who sold him out).
In Nov 2020, I wrote about #AlQaeda's looming "succession crisis" -- as the group's most likely No.2 (Sayf al-Adel) is based in #Iran, a location that for most AQ affiliates, has resulted in deep distrust.

jihadica.com/al-qaedas-lead…

AQ's decentralization will only increase now.
For years, #AlQaeda has been under a self-reinforcing process of decentralization (& localization) -- whereby the central leadership remained a key guide, but an increasingly irrelevant source of strategic command.

More on that, in this lengthy piece:

hudson.org/research/15533…
This is reportedly an image from the scene of the strike, in #Kabul's Sherpur neighborhood.

The apparent lack of explosive damage may suggest the U.S. used an R9X 'flying ginsu' missile, which is inert & carries self-deploying blades to kill a target with no collateral damage.
R9X missiles have been deployed a number of times by JSOC in NW #Syria to target senior #AlQaeda figures -- they're extraordinarily precise & have worked to great effect until now.

See here, for example, from June 2020.

I've not seen one used on a building before, though.
Sources in #Afghanistan are now confirming -- this building in which #Zawahiri was killed was owned by Sirajuddin Haqqani, whose son & son-in-law also died in the strike.

Stunning. He's the #Taliban's de facto deputy leader.
NEW -- some fresh thoughts & analysis on the death of #AlQaeda leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri in a U.S. drone strike in #Kabul.

In short: a massive CT victory for the #Biden admin; with profound consequences for #Afghanistan & for AQ's agenda worldwide.

mei.edu/publications/s…
#Biden confirms strike killed #AlQaeda leader #Zawahiri on Saturday -- "he carved a trail of murder & violence against American citizens, diplomats, and interests."
NEW -- #Zawahiri was located in #Kabul "earlier this year" when he moved there "to be with his family."

The strike was approved a week ago. No civilian casualties.
NEW -- senior #Biden admin officials now saying that #Haqqani Network leaders were aware of #Zawahiri's presence in #Kabul.

Immediately after the strike, #Haqqani operatives sealed off the area & relocated #Zawahiri's relatives.

A damning indictment of #Taliban credibility.
No doubt, killing #Zawahiri is a big win for #Biden & a major achievement for the U.S. & allies.

BUT let's take a breath -- the leader of #AlQaeda was being harbored *by the #Taliban* in *the capital* of #Afghanistan.

Not exactly a reassuring signal of what's to come.
Senior #Biden admin official:

For several years, U.S. intel was aware of a network supporting #Zawahiri.

Earlier this year, intel located #Zawahiri’s wife & children in #Kabul, then tied #Zawahiri to that same location.
Senior #Biden admin official:

Senior #Haqqani figures were aware of #Zawahiri’s presence in #Kabul -- “That’s a big deal… They own this.”

After the strike, there was a concerted effort to restrict access to the site. #Zawahiri’s wife & children were moved to a new location.
Senior #Biden admin official:

#Zawahiri produced multiple videos at the location in #Kabul — further video releases (recorded pre-death) wouldn't be a surprise.

Dialogue with the #Taliban will continue — it has done in the intervening days — to ensure they abide by #Doha deal.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Jul 18
#Israel's intervention in #Suwayda has completely backfired, with #Jerusalem now signaling it wants #Syria's gov't to go back in to restore order amid huge tribal mobilization.

#Israel's approach to post-#Assad #Syria has never been strategic & the last week shows that palpably.
By intervening, #Israel (1) exacerbated #Suwayda's intra-#Druze divisions; (2) fueled (by 1,000x) Sunni Arab hostility to #Druze calls for decentralization; (3) triggered a nationwide tribal mobilization that's now advancing; & (4) placed #Druze civilians in far greater danger.
Let's get something very clear -- crimes/violations have been committed by all sides (gov't forces, tribes/Bedouin, #Druze militias).

There was never a "pure" side here & by stirring the pot, #Israel poured gallons of fuel onto the fire -- for crimes to simply intensify.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 16
#Syria's SW province of #Suwayda has seen 5 days of chaotic, complex conflict now -- but as with previous bouts of hostilities in recent months, the information space has been plagued by disinformation, conflicting information & fast-changing developments.

What's happened, a 🧵:
Late on July 11, Bedouin gunmen ambushed a vegetable truck on the #Damascus-#Suwayda highway, beating the driver & stealing the truck & its contents.

The next day, #Druze gunmen kidnapped 8 Bedouins as retaliation, triggering Bedouin gunmen to kidnap 5 #Druze in response.
July 12 saw a flurry of tit-for-tat kidnappings, amid attempts by local notables to negotiate a calm-down.

Tensions & conflict between Bedouin clans & #Druze militia in #Suwayda dates back years -- tied to the drugs & weapons trade, control of smuggling routes & land ownership.
Read 23 tweets
Jun 24
Last night, Saraya Ansar al-Sunna claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing that killed 25 people at the St Elias Church outside #Damascus on Sunday.

This is a group with a murky history -- a 🧵 Image
Ansar al-Sunna first emerged in the public on Feb 1, 2025 -- claiming responsibility for massacring ~12 Alawites in #Hama several days earlier.

But the group was formed in June 2024 (~6months pre-#Assad's fall) in #Idlib by #HTS defectors & operatives aligned with Huras al-Din.
At least 3 Ansar al-Sunna operatives were detained by #HTS's General Security Service in October 2024 -- they were deemed to be an #ISIS sleeper cell.

GSS interrogations revealed communication with militants in Deir ez Zour.
Read 8 tweets
May 2
What's happening in #Syria's #Druze-majority governorate of #Suwayda?

A 🧵:
Last night, almost all of #Suwayda's #Druze religious, civil & military leaders agreed a deal w. #Damascus to begin a gradual integration of #Syria's Interior Ministry, by folding #Druze militias into the "Public Security" force -- & later, more into the Defense Ministry.
This morning, that deal began moving -- with ~700 #Druze militiamen fast-tracked into a #Suwayda-specific Public Security force responsible for security in the (a) capital & (b) border areas. ~1,300 more men are in process to join too.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30
Amid hostilities in #Sahnaya, let's get one thing straight -- this is *not* a "gov't vs. Druze" conflict. By any means.

#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.

And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
While some #Druze clerics (like Hijri) appear determined to hold hard against #Damascus, others (like Hinawi & Jarbou) seem determined to find a middle ground compromise.

Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus). Image
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Image
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The most powerful #Druze militias (Rijal al-Karama, Ahrar al-Jabal etc) -- HQ'd in #Suwayda -- have signed a framework security agreement with #Damascus & work jointly with the Interior Ministry. They worked together to end fighting in #Jaramana & same overnight in Sahnaya. Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.

The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵: Image
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.

For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/20/syr…
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy). Image
Read 8 tweets

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