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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Aug 3

#Georgia_Russia: Economically, Georgia is becoming a dependent recipient of Russian money. Here are some statistics that show that Georgian-Russian ties are growing even stronger during the current geopolitical crisis: ⤵️

1) There are about 13,500 Russian businesses (nearly half of which opened between March and May 2022) in Georgia; 2) 58% of the total Georgian wine is sold in Russia (58 million dollars); 3) Oil imports amount to 118 million dollars (+280% increase in 2022 due to the ⤵️

redirection of oil caused by sanctions on Russia for attacking Ukraine); 4) 15% of tourists coming to Georgia are from Russia (240,000 tourists-"fleeing Russians" in January-June 2022); ⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Aug 3

#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Russia accused the Azeri military of violating the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020. Baku is carrying out the "Revenge" operation and occupied some nights in the Lachin and Kalbajar regions. Current Azeri objectives are to advance, for which ⤵️

new supply routes are traced in the recently recovered territories. Turkish military UAVs were used in the mountainous areas to destroy the positions of the Armenian military (which Baku considers to be illegally stationed on Azeri territory under the protection of ⤵️

Russian peacekeepers). The Azeri Ministry of Defense has reiterated the following objectives: 1) demilitarization of the regions still under the control of Armenia; 2) withdrawal of the Armenian forces; 3) disarm all Armenian troops. ⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Aug 2

#Russia_Sanctions: MFA Zakharova argues that the "grains deal" was negotiated as a package deal that would comprise the West's agreement to remove obstacles to Russian exports of agri-food and fertilizers. It is worth noting that Borrell repeatedly complained that ⤵️

the EU is unfairly blamed for the shortage of agri-food products on the world market and, after all, agreed that some adjustments in the sanctions regime are necessary to rule out any negative collateral effects of sanctions on agri-food supply. This was done ⤵️

as a result of the 7th sanctions package that exempted several Russian banks from financial sanctions. Apparently, Russia has high expectations of the revision of the sanctions to accommodate its willingness to remain in the "grain deal". ⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Aug 1

#Russia: Switzerland and Turkey have increased their exports to Russia, along with China and Belarus. In May, goods delivered by Belarus increased by 29% year-on-year (up to $1.5 billion). In June, Swiss exports almost doubled (around 80% year-on-year to $441 million) as⤵️

Switzerland rushed to fulfil old contracts before new sanctions took effect. Although the Russian destination represents only 2.3% of total Turkish exports, goods sent to Russia in June increased by 46% (both agri-food and industrial). As more Western countries implement ⤵️

the sanctions regime, it is inevitable that others (non-Western), including Turkey, will try to fill the void. Nobody in the West has complained about this and this is partly due to the neutral role played by Turkey in the mediation between Kyiv and Moscow on the UN platform.⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jul 29

#Moldova_Romania: The country is looking for ways to buy gas from Romania as soon as possible through Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau. This was one of the letmotives of President Sandu's visit to Bucharest. She suggested that the government wants to ensure gas supply security by⤵️

replacing Russian gas. However, the financial issue has not been discussed. Or, Moldova cannot afford the cheaper gas it now buys from Gazprom based on the price formula negotiated by the ruling party, and Sandu herself welcomed this. The Romanian side said⤵️

it will not leave Moldova alone, without indicating whether it would be ready to subsidize the gas price for future gas delivery to Moldova. Lowering Moldova's price would violate Romania's state aid law. In fact, this problem can be overcome if a political decision is taken.⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jul 27

#Ukraine_Moldova: Zelensky has reiterated that one of the country's objectives is to become a guarantor of European energy security. Ukraine is ready to export electricity to the EU, after synchronization with ENTSO-E completed in March this year. Due to the Russian war,⤵️

the EU approved the union of Ukraine and Moldova before the initial schedule. This makes it possible to temporarily provide the two EU candidate states with electricity in the event of an emergency situation, such as gas cuts for power production. At such risk is Moldova,⤵️

which last year signed a contract with Russia, which both the ruling party and Sandu hailed as the best solution that offers cheaper gas (than that available on EU market). Since the gas flow through NS1 is reduced to 20%, the Moldovan side expects negative scenarios for⤵️

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