Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Aug 3 7 tweets 2 min read
#Georgia_Russia: Economically, Georgia is becoming a dependent recipient of Russian money. Here are some statistics that show that Georgian-Russian ties are growing even stronger during the current geopolitical crisis: ⤵️
1) There are about 13,500 Russian businesses (nearly half of which opened between March and May 2022) in Georgia; 2) 58% of the total Georgian wine is sold in Russia (58 million dollars); 3) Oil imports amount to 118 million dollars (+280% increase in 2022 due to the ⤵️
redirection of oil caused by sanctions on Russia for attacking Ukraine); 4) 15% of tourists coming to Georgia are from Russia (240,000 tourists-"fleeing Russians" in January-June 2022); ⤵️
5) Remittances (payments) from Russia reached 42% due to the entry of Russians (750 million dollars). At the same time, imports from Russia constitute only 11.0%, while exports (including re-export) are 10%. Exports are likely to grow as Georgia becomes an artery for ⤵️
overland freight transport from Turkey to isolated Russia. The Georgian opposition, but also some Ukrainian officials, accuse the government of being "pro-Russian" for not distancing itself from Russia. This is something the ruling party is unwilling to do, in part ⤵️
because it is struggling to keep up with the economy. Therefore, the government is compensating the economic output with the budget revenue from the business with Russia to survive politically at home.
More data is available in the @Transparency_GE report, here: transparency.ge/en/post/georgi…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Aug 4
#Moldova: Russia is recruiting citizens of Moldova and Russia to serve under contract in the Russian Operational Group of the Russian Forces (Military Unit 13962), based in the Transnistria region. Advertising flyers are placed online and in public spaces in the ⤵️
separatist region (bus stops, etc.). This group supplies some 1,500 people who are illegally stationed in the separatist region. RISE's investigation reveals the following facts: 1) Along with citizens from all over the territory of Moldova, Russia is also recruiting Russian ⤵️ Image
citizens (including those residing in Siberia), aged between 18 and 45; 2) The recruited individuals will be able to open a bank account in Russian banks, where they will receive money for the mortgage in Russia; 3) To be accepted, the applicant must submit a Russian ⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Aug 4
#Ukraine: Amnesty Int. reports that the Ukrainian military forces would set up military bases in residential areas (schools, hospitals) & launch attacks from civilian areas. It also argues that this doesn’t justify Russia's indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians.⤵️
It is the first time that a Western international organization has accused Ukraine of violations of international humanitarian law. Kyiv will have to decide what rhetoric to use to reduce reputational damage and justify its (defensive) actions against Russian aggression.⤵️
The Russian pro-Kremlin media will use the Amnesty International report. discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the local public, but also push forward peace negotiations, forcing the West to put pressure on Ukraine. This report will be a game changer in information warfare.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Russia accused the Azeri military of violating the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020. Baku is carrying out the "Revenge" operation and occupied some nights in the Lachin and Kalbajar regions. Current Azeri objectives are to advance, for which ⤵️
new supply routes are traced in the recently recovered territories. Turkish military UAVs were used in the mountainous areas to destroy the positions of the Armenian military (which Baku considers to be illegally stationed on Azeri territory under the protection of ⤵️
Russian peacekeepers). The Azeri Ministry of Defense has reiterated the following objectives: 1) demilitarization of the regions still under the control of Armenia; 2) withdrawal of the Armenian forces; 3) disarm all Armenian troops. ⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Aug 2
#Russia_Sanctions: MFA Zakharova argues that the "grains deal" was negotiated as a package deal that would comprise the West's agreement to remove obstacles to Russian exports of agri-food and fertilizers. It is worth noting that Borrell repeatedly complained that ⤵️
the EU is unfairly blamed for the shortage of agri-food products on the world market and, after all, agreed that some adjustments in the sanctions regime are necessary to rule out any negative collateral effects of sanctions on agri-food supply. This was done ⤵️
as a result of the 7th sanctions package that exempted several Russian banks from financial sanctions. Apparently, Russia has high expectations of the revision of the sanctions to accommodate its willingness to remain in the "grain deal". ⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Aug 2
#Russia_Energy: The G7 has adopted a joint statement on Russia's energy geopolitics: 1) They condemned the Russian weaponization of energy; 2) It was recognized that the G7 is seeking a common position against the position of Russian as producer;⤵️
3) Common actions will be taken to mitigate the price increase caused by Russia, prompting the reduction of demand for Russian energy sources; 4) The G7 maintains its commitment to diversification and the guarantee of competitive markets;⤵️
5) In addition to decoupling from Russia on energy, the G7 is looking at ways to reduce Russia's revenue from exporting energy used for the war against Ukraine; 6) The total ban on services (transport, insurance) for the export of crude oil by Russian sea,⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Aug 1
#Russia: Switzerland and Turkey have increased their exports to Russia, along with China and Belarus. In May, goods delivered by Belarus increased by 29% year-on-year (up to $1.5 billion). In June, Swiss exports almost doubled (around 80% year-on-year to $441 million) as⤵️
Switzerland rushed to fulfil old contracts before new sanctions took effect. Although the Russian destination represents only 2.3% of total Turkish exports, goods sent to Russia in June increased by 46% (both agri-food and industrial). As more Western countries implement ⤵️
the sanctions regime, it is inevitable that others (non-Western), including Turkey, will try to fill the void. Nobody in the West has complained about this and this is partly due to the neutral role played by Turkey in the mediation between Kyiv and Moscow on the UN platform.⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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