Risk Management is the most important factor in trading, and MUST be at the core of your trading strategy. If you made a ton of money in 2021, and then lost 80% of it in 2022 so far, you're not going to be a trader for very long.
How to create your own risk management plan:
π§΅π
1. Come up with a set amount that you want to allocate for long term investing, and an amount for short term trading. Long term should heavily outweigh your short term trading. For example, 80% long term investing, and 20% for short term trading. Keep these accounts separate.
1a. For long term investing, you should be using high time frame charts ONLY when deciding to buy/sell. The charts can give great indications of these buy/sell signals.
Decide how much for one asset, and scale in/out with multiple buys/sells over time. This is called averaging.
1b. For short term trading, decide how much of your total capital you are willing to risk on one trade. Then, how much of that capital you are willing to lose. Many short term traders use somewhere between 5%-7% for their stop loss. With leverage, this may need to be higher.
1c. Everyone has different risk appetites. What I consider a lot of risk may be very little to you. What matters most, is that you create rules for yourself, and stick to them no matter what. Got stopped out? Don't chase it. Just move on, there will always be another trade.
1d. Long term trading means holding for long periods of time. With stocks, you can stay in for years, like with 401k plans.
For crypto, it's far better to buy and sell based on higher time frame signals. Bear markets take away up to 90% of profits. Extreme patience is required.
2. Fear and Greed are the main reasons traders lose. Fear of missing out(FOMO), or fear of losing after investing and seeing red.
Greed is the main reason traders don't make any money. Many times traders will be well into profits, only to watch it turn negative. Take profits!
2a. To be successful at anything , you need confidence. Without confidence, there's bound to be emotion. There's simply no room for this in trading, and will only lead to fear/greed. Learn and understand technical analysis, and market psychology, and you will gain confidence.
3. What does fear/greed have to do with risk management?
Having planned entries, stop losses, and take profit points for your trades eliminates the emotion involved. If you have rules, and you follow them, then you can be a robot without emotions.
Be a robot.π€
3b. Pre-plan your trades. This goes for long term and short term. If the chart is showing a buy signal on a HTF, pick the point for retest of support to start scaling in. Don't get scared of a little red unless there's a real sell signal. That's what your stop loss is for.
3c. If you're well into profits on a long term investment, take profits on the first sell signal you see on a weekly/daily time frame. This could be the cross of moving averages, major fib retracements, etc. Then WAIT. And sometimes it requires waiting a very long time.
4. Calculating Expected Return
Setting stop loss(SL) and take profit(TP) points are needed to calculate your expected return. The importance of this calculation cannot be overstated, as it forces you to think through your trades and rationalize them. π§
4a. When you enter a position, you should already know where your SL and TP points are. With these, you can measure your risk/reward ratio. If your SL is -7%, and your TP +21%, then your risk/reward ratio is 3.0. This is a good risk/reward ratio.
4b. If all of your trades are set up this way, and have a ratio above 2.0, then all you need to do is win 50% of your trades. If you take 10 trades, and lose 5 at -7%, and win 5 at +20% or more, you will be net positive overall.
Creating a trading plan and risk management profile that fits your personal financial situation is something that everyone MUST do if they want to make it in this game. If you're just throwing money at the market without a plan, you're giving your money to the ones who have one.
If you found this to be valuable, like and retweet! I hope this reaches as many people as possible, and ultimately saves you money. If you'd like to learn how to become a more confident and informed investor, you can join my Discord TA channel in Defi Dojo. Links in bio. #Groot
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
How can we know if a correction, or bear market, has ended? In this thread I'll go over the previous correction from March 2020, and how it can help us with our current market.
Aβ list of things to look for to confirm a recovery has started.
$SPX $SPY $ES $BTC $ETH
π§΅π
First, how do we know the bear market is continuing? Well the obvious answer is $SPX makes a lower low breaking $3636.87. Because every market recovery starts with a low that remains the low.
How do we know if a correction/bear market has ended? 1. A failure to break that same level: $3636.87
2. A rally that retraces 38.2-61.8% towards the previous high($4,177 current market)
$BTC and $ETH have managed to stay above the 8EMA for three whole days. That's awesome. Sitting in between the 8/21 however means "Wait and see". It's progress, but we aren't there yet. A confirmed 8/21 cross is what we want. ALT's may be a different story.
More belowπ
If we get that 8/21, #Bitcoin still needs to get through numerous downtrends, and they're really far away. There is a CME gap above, which tend to become magnets. This is a potential target, IF, we get a reversal confirmed to the upside.
$SOL is back above the 8/21. But lagging somewhat today compared to BTC/ETH. I can see a move up to the top here. If that happens, indicators should be saying BUY, and it will be attempt #2 to long on SOL.
$ETH look at this little guy! Let's keep it going!
$BTC you still have some work to do.
ETH has made it to the 21EMA on the daily. BTC approaching. Safe to say we get our 3 daily closes over the 8EMA unless something catastrophic happens in the next 45 min #Bitcoin#Ethereum
$ETH hasn't touched it's 21 EMA since May 5th. We may have the beginning of something here.
Now hold on, because it still could just be a bigger triangle, I don't have much to draw this top line with yet.
Weekly look ahead: $BTC making the same pattern over and over again. You keep doing the same thing and buying the dip expecting different results? That's the definition of insanity. Come join us in Defi Dojo(Link in my bio), we will be ready when it's time to buy. #BTC#Bitcoin
$NQ $QQQ still above the mid line in this falling wedge on the daily. This pattern is bullish, however there's still plenty of room below it. With CPI data on July 13th I expect volatility leading into that.
$ES $SPY rejecting pivot and the EMA's still. Same story here with plenty of room down possible. No buy signals anywhere on higher time frames.
Whether you're aπor aπ», everyone should have their own set of rules to follow. You're trading plan is your guide to success. Here are 7 tips I've learned to live by, and you should too. #Bitcoin#SPY#ETH#Crypto
π§΅π
1. Establish a plan!π―
Plan your trades carefully before you enter a position. This means having the price you want to enter, a stop loss, and a take profit zone BEFORE you enter a position. If you aren't doing this, you're probably losing money.πΈ
2. Protect your capital!πͺ
Cut losses quickly. Don't hold and hope, it will 9/10 create bigger losses. If you're plan says to cut at 5% loss, cut it without exceptions, EVERYTIME!
Here's a chart that shows what it would take to recover funds at certain levels of loss.
Here's our weekly look ahead: $ES has a good chance to reach $4000 again this week. After that it will need to hold above this downtrend for continuance.
$NQ has just peaked above the downtrend in this falling wedge pattern. Watch to see if it gets above and holds this week. If it can't expect a retrace back down to at least the middle line.
$BTC is still fighting the daily 8EMA. Rolling over slightly. Not a good look honestly. #Bitcoin