1️⃣ Yes, the Leopard 1 is outdated compared to more modern 🇷🇺 MBT, but the chance of encountering them is shrinking.
2️⃣ While outdated as MBT, the Leopard1 still makes a useful fire support vehicle: an accurate gun and good optics.
It will have to be used more cautiously than an MBT, due to thin armour. However, it doesn't burn like a matchbox if hit.
3️⃣ For the #Gepard, 🇺🇦 had to be trained to service the Leopard chassis anyway.
4️⃣ These tanks will either be donated or scrapped. There is no chance to include them in a swap deal within NATO.
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🇫🇷 to send more armoured personnel carriers to 🇺🇦. I hope this increases pressure on 🇩🇪 to do the same. APCs are urgently needed to allow UA to move infantry on the battlefield. In the open, artillery can easily interdict movements, granting 🇷🇺 initiative. ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/351…
From the start of the war, 🇺🇦 has conducted a mobile defence. For this, you need armoured reserves.
Wartime attrition has put into question whether UA will sustain its armoured reserves. 🇵🇱 provided MBT critically important.
But armoured transportation was/is still an issue. BMP-1 are not very survivable, pretty much anything from the West is better than that.
So glad 🇫🇷 stepps up here, after 🇦🇺🇳🇱🇺🇸 also provided MRAP & APC.
1/ A short update tweet on where we are on the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war. A lot to do for @ecfr, and our next #twitterspace will be about different things ... so here wer are.
Last week 🇷🇺 repaired the railway connection into #Izyum and you immediately see the results.
2/ Further offensives from Izyum towards #Sloviansk are expected in the comming days. This will make 🇺🇦 positions in #Severodonestk even more vulnerable.
Renewed 🇷🇺 attacks on #Bakhmut were repelled so far, but breakthroughs may happen any day. Any of them will force ...
3/ 🇺🇦 to retreat to the #Sloviansk - #Kramatorsk line. When this happens is hard to predict, but it can happen by tomorrow. A lot of prepared positions there, so this again should hold up 🇷🇺 for weeks.
Finally, there are also positive surprises comming out of Berlin, and this one is huge. @Bundeskanzler announced 🇺🇦 will get #IrisT-SLM air defence missile.
Why is this so impiortant? faz.net/aktuell/politi…
🇺🇦 needs an air defence capability above 3000m altitude. Otherwise the Russian Aerospace force will just fly high and avoid MANPADS (Singer, Igla & Grom).
Flying high degrades accuracy, but RuAF give little about collateral damage anyway.
For the time being, 🇺🇦 uses Soviet era S-300 and Buk-M1 for this job. Remarkably well by the way.
But there are limited stocks of ammunition, and very few systems in the West. Ukraine will run dry on these systems over the summer.
1/ So after a long time a wrap up tweet on where we are in the 🇷🇺>🇺🇦 war. I wanted to do this a long time ago, esp. as our last @ecfr twitter space was some time in the past. But this 👇 delayed everything a bit.
2/ Russian breakthrough near #Popansa yesterday a shark reminder that the #Donbas offensive is still ongoing. 🇺🇦 hold most lines, but such breakthroughs are always possible as long as the offensive is going on.
3/ However, I would not start to draw encirclement circles (something quitre fashionable in recent months). 🇺🇦 have been expecting this and prepared lines in the rear. We'll see in the next days if they can stabilise the situation with reserves.
So, there finally is some movement in the 🇩🇪 arms delivery debate. A "swap deal" seems to be on the way with 🇸🇮: Germany will give #Marder IFV and #Fuchs APC to Slovenia, in turn Slovenia will give M-84 MBT to 🇺🇦. faz.net/aktuell/politi…
The M-84 is a Yugoslav copy of the T-72, with inferior armour compared to the T-72B and T-64 UA is using right now. 🇸🇮 uses 14 for training and has further 32 in store.
While of course one may wonder why 🇸🇮 wants to trade an MBT with an IFV, the low numbers indicate that these...
... Marder are from the 100 Marder that wetre phased out and do not belong to the Bundeswehr anymore. Most of them are in a bad shape and need extensive overhaul, but the roughly 40 in question could be delivered rather sooner.
1/ Mein heutiger #servicetweet in 🇩🇪 zur #Marder Debatte, da sich hier auch im #Miltwitter gehörige Fehleinschätzungen breit machen!!!
1⃣ Die in Frage stehenden Marder stammen NICHT aus beständen der Bundeswehr. Es handelt sich um ausgeschiedene Fahrzeuge, die wieder ...
2/ ... beim Hersteller stehen.
2⃣ laut Hersteller würde die logischische Vorarbeit und Einschulung des Wartungs- und Bedienpersonals sowie einer "Ukrainisierung" des Fahrzeuges 4 Monate dauern.
3⃣ Allerdings sind diese 100 Marder in keinem guten Zustand, die BW hat nicht umsonst
3/ ... genau diese ausgesondert. Sie bedürfen alle einer mehr oder minder großen Generalüberholung. Kleinere Tranchen zur Ausbildung könnte man im Sommer bereitstellen, aber die Masse der SPz wäre erst nächstes Jahr wieder fit.
4⃣ Schneller könnte es gehen wenn Schützenpanzer ...