Thread by @lxeagle17

If you're looking for another signal that there is a change in the environment, we have a second post-Dobbs special election in which Dems are set to outperform Biden's 2020 numbers. The first one was #NE01, where they outperformed by 6. In #MN01, it'll likely be by a couple.

Polling has shown a 2-3 point shift towards Democrats since the Dobbs decision, and that remains the single best indicator that there has been a change. But if you're looking for another sign because you're worried about nonresponse bias, then this is another confirmation.

For what it's worth, the difference between an R+4 and an R+1 year might be as many as 20 House seats and three Senate seats, depending on the scenario that pans out. Let's see how the rest of the cycle plays out and how the LV screens shift things after Labor Day.

Yes, there are other reasons for individual election results that can be down to candidate quality, but when you see a consistent shift across polling, special elections, and fundraising, it's more likely than not that something exists as an underlying cause rather than noise.

And that's not a guarantee that things continue this way; all we can discuss is the data that we do have. Things very well could change, and nobody is saying they can't, but it's quite clear that the picture *currently* looks better for Dems now than it did three months ago.

Looks like this was a bit early. Dems will very likely outperform by a margin similar to their 5 point overperformance in Nebraska's 1st CD.

Olmstead drops, and we can say that this will be an overperformance that might even be a few points *greater* than the one in #NE01. Looks like Democrats will lose by ~3 points at this rate, outperforming Joe Biden's 2020 numbers by 7.

Not much evidence of a red wave of late.

With Brown County in (and a strong GOP performance there, winning by 40 as compared to Trump's 33), it appears that Democrats should lose this race by a shade over 4 points, going by the numbers on DDHQ. This is a 6 point swing left from Trump's 10 point victory in 2020.

(Deleted a previous tweet speculating about margins that really undershot Brown's eventual results).

Solid night for Democrats. If you'd have offered them this result yesterday, they'd have taken it. #NY19 in a narrow Biden seat will be the most interesting special in a while.