After a solid string of predictions, we did take a couple Ls @SplitTicket_ tonight by missing the #VTSen (Likely Nolan) and #CTSen (Lean Klarides) GOP primary calls. Sorry, guys -- low-salience primaries with limited polling are just hard to predict. I'll do better for next time.
@SplitTicket_ For Vermont, my internal logic was that the Scott and McConnell endorsements indicated serious establishment backing for Nolan, which I thought would carry her over the line in a state GOP that was probably more moderate than most. Can't say I saw that loss coming.
For Connecticut, I thought Klarides was only slightly favored and stressed that a Levy win wouldn't be a shock at all because she was endorsed by Trump a week ago -- I felt, however, that Klarides had enough cash and name ID to carry her and that Trump's endorsement was late.
On the bright side, those were our first two missed Senate primary predictions of the cycle and came in low salience races with limited data and no impact at all on November. We did get Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona right, and so I'm happy overall with how we've done so far.
(I post these threads mainly because if we like to celebrate when we're right, we should also explain our reasoning when we're wrong)
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