For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.
#Uranium nano caps 1H 2018: 50x in the following 7 years
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#Russian DRs Mar 2022: 30x over the following 5-7 years?
#crypto & miners June 2022: 20x over the following 5 years?
Be open to what presents itself next, don't question the cycle bottom gift being provided. Will it be precious metal or US forgotten (<6x) large cap stocks
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$AHQ 3x returns over 12 months from recent lows, 6x assuming lower stupid dilution. The key is to evaluation opportunities in the eye of the storm....4 potential mines with combined NPV of $2bn and 1bn/t of resource, low capex start ups.
Every time there is a new #uranium PFS or DFS come out we compare across the spectrum of projects looking for the best value at the lowest EV. Its still hard to beat 48mlbs recoverable, sub $30 AISC, 4-5mlb annual capacity trading on an EV < US$70m. Overpaying will reduce returns
ISR capex doesn't look so great when treated from a holistic approach
In peak #uranium markets we predict this pink sheet price could so 370x from its last price, 60x with $500 deployed, 30x with $1000 deployed over 36 months. Can you be the 1st in and do the sitting required, for this opportunity?
#coal: could coking spot move below thermal given a recessionary slow down in steel production, yet power generation deficit due to Russian sanctions? Creating elevated #metcoal prices for longer? Providing a boost to 2023 margins for the new undervalued start ups...
$CKA $AHQ
The 2023 economics:
1m/t production @ US$100-150 cash margin = A$140-200m CF
1.5m/t @ US$100-150 = A$200-300m CF
Valuation multiples of 1-1.5x cashflow, assuming material stock buy backs = re-rate to 2.5-3.5x is very possible.
$CKA $AHQ
Self funding #coal takeover bids? As cashflow run rates imply less than 2x cashflow valuations, or 50% cashflow yields, wouldn't it be attractive to announce a bid at say 25-30% yield? $CKA has had at least 2 bids in the past, insiders own around 50%, don't be surprised in a 3rd.