A short thread on Casemiro. At age 30, he's still a very aggressive defender with high ball retention and good attacking output at a Premier League standard. But his defending quality has been dropping, and he's been relatively worse in the #UCL.
Casemiro covers a lot of ground but stayed quite central for Real Madrid last season. He doesn't come out to cover on the flanks very often, and he rarely gets in to the box. That doesn't stop him from taking pot shots, though....
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Right now Casemiro has a lot in common with countryman Fernandinho in his early 30s. Casemiro is better in the air but worse in 1v1s. He also dribbles less and does more progressive passing than Fernandinho did back then.
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So who's the odd man out in the Manchester United midfield? McTominay offers more of a difference in style versus Casemiro, but neither he nor Fred is particularly adventurous. Casemiro would have been an ideal foil for Pogba, though... (ducks).
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P.S. So is Casemiro worth £60m plus wages? He might be, for his attitude, if he can shake things up. But will he respect Ten Hag, given results so far? And putting aggression aside, is his defending good enough?
Imagine if they'd signed him to partner Pogba under Mourinho.... 💥
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Norwich have signed forward Milot Rashica ("hra-SHEET-sa") from Werder Bremen for €11m. We've been following him since 2015 – and he hasn't been as productive lately as he was in 2018-19. Let's find out why not.
Stats at a Premier League standard:
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As you can see above, Rashica has played mainly as a striker for Werder Bremen, with great skill in 1v1s but declining attacking output. His style hasn't changed much, but his passing has gotten less aggressive and his dribbling has declined a little bit:
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The share of Rashica's ball progression contributions from receiving doubled since 2018-19, while the share from passing is about the same. The remainder is his individual actions – so he's not taking the ball forward and winning as many duels as he used to:
THREAD: Ryan Gravenberch gets the start today for the Oranje. The 19-year-old Ajax phenom and smarterscout young prospect had an amazing breakout season. Apart from aerials in open play, there's not a bad number on here. Stats at a #UCL standard: 🔥🙇♂️🚀
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Gravenberch operated mostly on the left for Ajax, and we'll expect to see him working there in a two again today. He's got a wide range of passes but is a storming dribbler up the left channel. He takes corners from both sides, too. Multitalented, you might say...
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Oh, and Gravenberch can score from outside the box in open play, too. He's 19 years old, people.
The British-born #USMNT youth player has left Southend for QPR. Last season was tough for Southend, and Kelman didn't get on the end of many balls in the box. At 1.69m he can't do much in aerials, either. Second striker might work better.
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Kelman's involvement in Southend's most dangerous moves was rather low for a central striker, though he did take decent chances on average. He was active in both channels, a bit more on the left, usually linking up the play but also dribbling on the corner of the box.
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Here are Kelman's shot maps. He scored a couple of longer shots from open play. From dead balls it looks like he wasn't always around the six-yard box, which isn't surprising given his height. Again, second striker looks best for him.
Rhian Brewster is reportedly close to a move from Liverpool to Sheffield United. At first glance, the 20-year-old's stats from last season with Swansea don't look too impressive at a Premier League standard. But read on...
Brewster was involved in a surprisingly high share of Swansea's goals while on the pitch despite being part of less than 40% of its shots. One reason was his finishing, which was well above par and partly made up for his low underlying output in attack.
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As Brewster's smartermap shows, he was active all over the attacking half for Swansea and got into good positions to shoot. He liked to shoot head-on from the GK's right and at more oblique angles from the GK's left. Overall he was more active in the right channel.
We now offer ratings for head coaches in all of our 48+ leagues around the world. We measure effects on attacking and defending, style, and more.
For example, our ratings suggest Leeds United would not be in the Premier League without Marcelo Bielsa.
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Here are Bielsa's average differences (per league match) in expected goals for and against versus our predicted results, given his players' performances in previous seasons:
2018-19 xGF +0.44
2019-20 xGF +0.23
2018-19 xGA -0.23
2019-20 xGA -0.27
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In each case above, our statistical tests suggest with nearly 100% confidence that Bielsa offered a positive effect.
Interestingly, this was not the case at Lille, where Bielsa's numbers were not as impressive. So the fit and the ability to put across ideas are important!
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Rúben Dias has moved from Benfica to Manchester City for €68m, @DuncanCastles reports. Here are his stats at a Premier League standard – good attacking output and ball retention, great defending quality, awesome tackler, good in the air on dead balls:
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But what's really exciting about Dias is his attacking. He was involved in 45% of Benfica's goals last season, which is huge for a RCB. He generated even more ball progression expected goals from receiving as from passing, too, taking high-quality shots (and finishing them):
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Here's our smartermap for Dias last season. He got deep into the attacking half for Benfica, leaving room on the flank for the RB, and with Manchester City he should have opportunities to do the same. He even took some of those good shots in open play!