And although it's free, if for whatever reason you'd like to help out with what we do, please feel free to head on over to @Bybit_Official where @johnnie_jacks & I are official partners with them
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above
If you're trading using someone's method without building the stats for yourself, then you've got a 0% win rate until proven
Don't throw your dough away pissing in the wind.
Take the time & develop the understanding - some background below:
It can be boring backtesting.
But that's literally what trading should be; BORING, almost like a habit.
Cue, Craving, Response, Reward
Cue: Your brain initiates a behaviour to predict a reward
In this case, we're looking to establish an understanding of the probability of how our trading method works, in order to hold a psychological edge to protect us from worrying in future about our trades
1. We see a reaction at the next 15M OB, look for an MSB and get long up to the target
2. We drop down for the 'double bottom' approach at the next 15M OB
3. Demand is overcome by supply and we trade down to the next 1D OB
1/4
On the LTF here, the new VPPV indicator on @tradingview is pretty handy in showing daily, weekly, and monthly specs on volume profile.
The target area shown also has confluence with a series of daily nPOC's that also act as liquidity zones
2/4
Overall though, and idea is that we see this recent low swept for a run back into the range - similar but opposite to what is shown in the box in the image below at prev ATH