This must be telepathy...Last night I watched "Trainwreck: Woodstock 99" () and then I read that @LukeGromen compares Powell to Limp Bizkits' Fred Durst at Woodstock99:
"For the uninitiated, in 1999, concert planners hosted 250,000+ concertgoers for a 3-day music festival on a closed US Air Force base in Rome, NY. Between the near-100-degree temperatures, the complete lack of shade (it was an airstrip), the exorbitant prices for tickets and..
concessions (including water), wanton drug and alcohol use, insufficient bathrooms, showers, fresh water, sleep, and woefully inadequate security, the conditions were ripe for a riot...
Tensions rose through the first day and into the first half of the second day of the three-day music festival, but the pivotal point came on the afternoon of the second day. Concert promoters were hoping that Limp Bizkit (and in particular Fred Durst) would try to calm the crowd.
Instead, Durst steadily whipped the crowd into a frenzy, and then before performing their song “Break Stuff”, Durst encouraged the crowd to “let all that negative energy out.” After having already crowd-surfed on a piece of plywood the crowd had ripped down off the fences,
Durst screamed the ending lyrics of “Break Stuff” into his microphone:
"And if my day keeps going this way, I just might break your f*cking face tonight
Give me something to break!
Just give me something to break!
How ‘bout your f*cking face? I hope you know, I pack a chainsaw A chainsaw (What?) A motherf*cking chainsaw (What?) So come and get it."
In the documentary, the head concert promoter said that he sensed things were getting out of control and pulled the plug on Limp Bizkit’s performance after the end of “Break Stuff”, the first time he said he had ever done that to an act in his career, but it was too late.
The riot was on and events spiraled downward from there, culminating in violence, fires, explosions, and looting that ultimately only ended when the New York State Police in full riot gear restored order.
Powell is Fred Durst. The markets since Powell’s last press conference are the concert promoters before Limp Bizkit and Durst began the song “Break Stuff”, still hopeful that Powell will “calm the crowd” and explicitly pivot. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is
Durst’s monologue before the song “Break Stuff.” Will Powell pivot and calm the crowd, or will he tell markets to “let all that negative energy out”, followed by “Give me something to break!”?

#FFTT ht @lukegromen #Woodstock99 #FedPivot #JacksonHole

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More from @RonStoeferle

Aug 23
Just finished studying the July 2022 report "The Future of Copper":

cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0722/T…

Here are some highlights:
It's predicting a 10 million mt shortfall in #copper supply by 2035, under its baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of current trends in the capacity utilization of mines and recycling of recovered copper.
Copper—the “metal of electrification”—is essential to all energy transition plans. But the potential supply-demand gap is expected to be very large as the transition proceeds. Substitution and recycling will not be enough to meet the demands of electric vehicles (EVs),..
Read 8 tweets
Aug 9
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
War is inflationary

....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...

Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
the low inflation world stood on three pillars:
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
Read 18 tweets
Aug 9
Firms' Inflation Expectations: Not Unanchored, but Perhaps Unsettled?

Interesting read by the #FederalReserveAtlanta:

atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblo…
"Said another way, the current bout of high inflation is unusual in many different ways, and how it will play out remains fraught with uncertainty. Firms' short- and long-run expectations have risen sharply, and longer-run expectations show a clear rise in the average firm's...
probability distribution, to the extent that nearly one-third of the weight is being assigned to anticipated cost increases greater than 5 percent. So as we continue to delve further into these expectations and monitor upcoming developments,...
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29
US Yield Curve Control ahead?

The Federal Reserve conveniently provided itself with the legitimation for future yield curve control:
„The period 1942-47 provides some evidence that the Federal Reserve can lower long-term rates by committing to keeping short-term rates low. The brief period from 1947 to 1948 may also...
provide additional evidence that long rates can be reduced by direct interventions in the market for long-term Treasuries.“ Source: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 14
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
Mar 16, 2020
Some very random thoughts on most recent developments here in Austria and in financial markets...
1. I am not scared of #COVIDー19 but rather the disastrous consequences for businesses, capital markets and employees...
2. Although monetary and fiscal stimulus will be huge, it won’t be enough.... we'll soon see who has been swimming naked...People do not see the consequences for illiquid investments like VC, real estate, art,...yet! VaR risk models will come back and hit us like boomerangs.
Read 18 tweets

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