Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JacksonHole

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Beyond immediate inflationary pressure and quarterly corporate profits abroad, the counterintuitive shift strengthens producers leverage in the supply-chain as well as creating potential trade/socio-economic instability #uncertainty #Fed #business #dollarindex
Read 4 tweets
It was 73 degrees and sunny in #JacksonHole, Wyoming, today; a perfect day for all those who were there….
Yet, there were no #monetary policy officials present at the traditional location of the @KansasCityFed’s late-summer #economic policy symposium, since they were conducting a “virtual symposium.”
That symposium provided #ChairPowell the opportunity to lay out a reasonably sunny perspective on the U.S. #economy, but also one that was not out of the woods yet, in terms of Covid variant risk and a maximum #employment target still to be achieved.
Read 10 tweets
Taper is coming soon but I definitely see no indication from #FOMC minutes that taper is coming as soon as #JacksonHole 1/5
The #FOMC minutes deliberately attempt to clearly divorce taper from the timing of #liftoff 2/5
The uncertainty on the taper timing is quickly shrinking to zero, so it’s not clear to me why there would be any drama left when it happens. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
.@PhRMA spox to me just now: "We are not aware of any meeting."'

So, what was that Trump was saying today ...

#DrugPrices #DrugPricing #pharma #biotech
Recall when all those industry executives exited Trump's advisory committees after #Charlottesville, with CEO one of the last to exit.

Since then, many CEOs, including J&J, have returned to White House, attended Trump events.

Given his recent remarks, are they still eager?
.@PhRMA @steveubl recently was in #JacksonHole with Ivanka & Jared fundraising for Republicans in midst of #COVID19 #pandemic.

What are the optics risks now for #pharma when any Trump event is a wildcard?

What do CEOs think about Trump's recent remarks about #KyleRittenhouse?
Read 3 tweets
The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…
Read 7 tweets
Speculation is mounting that Powell will use the annual Jackson Hole conference to announce a revamp of how monetary policy is set. The speech, scheduled for the first day of the economic symposium later today, could outline a shift by the Fed towards average inflation targeting. Image
If the yields on long-dated Treasury notes shoot higher after the speech, likely lifting the $ up as well, that would imply..
...investors don’t think Fed has gone far enough in reassuring markets that i/r will remain low for a very long period of time if they anticipate that the new policy would push up inflation in the long run.
Read 5 tweets
#jacksonhole #jeromepowell
The possible era of #deflation in a fight against #inflation

Despite Zero or low Interest rates central banks have had a hard time reaching their inflation targets. But now it seems confirmed that it’s not low central bank policy rate which causes...
low inflation , but rather the low real interest rate
Ever since central banks embarked on their near zero interest rate policies and large scale asset purchase programme , Reality has proved them wrong , we have seen trends towards deflation rather than inflationary pressures
Post 2020, what we are seeing is loss of jobs and low employment levels , in case there is severe declines in demand side , and If employers are unwilling or unable to reduce wages they will have to reduce the number of employees,
Read 8 tweets
Thus far, the #Fed Symposium at #JacksonHole, Wyoming, and Chair Powell’s morning speech, hasn’t provided much new information, and we think investors need to focus now on Frankfurt, where #ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to unveil significant policy stimulus next month.
On current policy: Chair Powell cites three factors of concern: “slowing global growth, #trade policy uncertainty, and muted #inflation,” which were the reasons behind the July rate cut, and now look to be the justification for the next one at September #FOMC meeting.
Finally, we think that the #Fed will not only lower rates another 25 basis points at its September meeting, but also probably again at its December meeting. Another two #policy rate cuts would bring rates closer to equilibrium, in our view.
Read 3 tweets
A brief discussion of how we are prepared for today's #FOMC minutes and Friday's #JacksonHole conference. 1/
First, know that #FOMC minutes are dramatically edited versions of transcripts so there is meaning beyond the last meeting. In the intermeeting period FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED. 2/
There are a number of ways to measure this in USD terms, but they all point the same direction as high yield credit spreads, noted below, which are wider +50bps since July 31. 3/
Read 21 tweets

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