Ted Darling Profile picture
Aug 30 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello Turnaround Tuesday!

This equity market keeps giving you opportunities to reduce exposure long side and to add ๐Ÿฉณ

Kashkari be damned!

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia is the mirror image of yesterday ๐Ÿชž
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ตโ†—๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28196 +1.15%
$SSEC 3227 -0.4%
$TWII 14954 +0.2%
$HSI 19910 -0.55%
$KOSPI 2451 +1.0%
$IDX 7159 +0.4%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 6998 +0.45%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59150 +2.05% โฌ…๏ธ โ™‰๏ธ
Europe โ†—๏ธ at the open

$DAX 13080 +1.45%
$FTSE 7465 +0.5%
$CAC 6390 +1.1%
$AEX 706 +1.15%
$IBEX 8071 +1.0%
$MIB 22112 +1.25%
$SMI 10976 +0.75%
$MOEX 2310 +0.6% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 27.22 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 12679 - 13503 ๐Ÿป
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures joining the ๐ŸŽ‰โ†—๏ธ

$ES 4069 +0.95%
$NQ 12645 +1.3%
$RTY 1892 +0.5%

$VIX 25.26 ๐Ÿ”ป

$SPX range 3966 - 4179 ๐Ÿป
$VIX range 17.77 - 28.16 neutral
GOLD and metals mostly โ†˜๏ธ

$GOLD 1749 -0.05%
$SILVER 18.538 -0.1%
$COPPER 3.594 -0.45%
$PLAT 852 -0.25%
$PALL 2162 +1.5%
$ALI 2425 -2.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$ZINC 3535 -0.75%

$GVZ 16.02 ๐Ÿ”บ

$GOLD range = 1727 - 1783 ๐Ÿป
$COPPER range = 3.48 - 3.75 ๐Ÿป
Hydrocarbons โ†”๏ธ after crude took out 95 ๐Ÿ”‘๐ŸŽš๏ธ

$WTIC 97.03 +0.05%
$BRENT 102.88 unch
$GASO 2.704 -0.45%
$NATGAS 9.215 -1.3%

$OVX 47.73

$WTIC range = 86.33 - 101.21 ๐Ÿป
$NATGAS range = 7.49 - 10.04 โ™‰๏ธ
Grains โ†”๏ธ after ๐ŸŒพ+4.65% and ๐ŸŒฝ +2.8%

$WHEAT 844 +0.25%
$CORN 677 -0.65%
$SOYB 1425 -0.8%
$SUGAR 18.45 +0.2%

$COFFEE 236.23 +0.05% โ˜•๏ธ

$DBA range = 19.65 - 20.94 ๐Ÿป
USD continues to retreat โ†˜๏ธ from cycle high

$EUR 1.002 +0.28%
$GBP 1.174 +0.3%
$AUD 0.695 +0.15%
$USD 108.448 -0.31%
$USDJPY 138.27 -0.3%
$USDCHF 0.97 +0.18%
$USDCAD 1.2975 -0.28%
$USDRUB 60.318 -0.13% ๐Ÿช†

$USD range = 106.98 - 109.59 โ™‰๏ธ
#cryptocurrencies โ†—๏ธ

$BTC 20417 +0.6%
$ETH 1588 +2.25%

#Bitcoin range = 19264 - 25542 ๐Ÿป
UST yields โ†˜๏ธ from 2s to 10s
10/2s to -35 BPS ๐Ÿ”ป

๐Ÿ‘€ on 3-mo bill 2.98% โฌ…๏ธ

MOVE 130.14 ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ›—

$TNX range 2.63 - 3.15 โ™‰๏ธ
$TLT range 110.45 - 115.25 ๐Ÿป

Global 10Ys
UST 3.063 -0.047
GILT 2.7 +0.093
BUND 1.463 -0.038
ITA 3.761 -0.03
JPN 0.221 -0.023
AUS 3.622 -0.013
CAN 3.083 +0.07
Will the 3-mo bill invert with the 10Y today?
Sure sign of #recession if so

Be patient with ๐Ÿฉณ as oversold risk assets ๐Ÿ€

๐Ÿ‘€ $WTIC and $DBA for potential ๐Ÿป to โ™‰๏ธ phase transition #reflation

โš ๏ธ ๐Ÿšฉ and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Aug 29
Hello Monday and the resumption of primary trend!

$USD โ†—๏ธ
$TNX โ†—๏ธ
$WTIC โ†—๏ธ
$ES โ†˜๏ธ
$GOLD โ†˜๏ธ
#Bitcoin โ†˜๏ธ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia, ex-China, โ†˜๏ธ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27879 -2.65%
$SSEC 3241 +0.15% โฌ…๏ธ
$TWII 14926 -2.3%
$HSI 2427 -2.2%
$KOSPI 2427 -2.2%
$IDX 7108 -0.4%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6955 -1.95%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58047 -1.35%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 12803 -1.3%
$FTSE 7427 -0.7%
$CAC 6192 -1.3%
$AEX 696 -1.3%
$IBEX 7964 -1.25%
$MIB 21691 -0.95%
$SMI 10913 -0.25%
$MOEX 2290 +0.95% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.87 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 12758 - 13533 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Aug 28
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/7 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/28/2022

What a difference a week and an 8-minute JH speech make.

Trend indicators green into #OPEX, only to have JPOW reiterate, "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional.โ€

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Having retraced 50-60% off their lows, US equities โ†˜๏ธ hard on Powellโ€™s speech

$SPX -4.05% (w) -2.4% (T)
$COMP -4.45% (w) +0.1% (T)
$IWM -2.9% (w) 0.7% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ failed to retrace 50% before โ†˜๏ธ Image
2a/7

Equity vol โ†—๏ธ and firmly in the ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿชฃ

$VIX 25.56 +4.96 pts
$VXN 31.72 +4.98 pts
$RVX 30.48 +5.14 pts
$VSTOXX +2.08 pts
$VXEEM 21.28 +1.85 pts

Chart: $VIX back > 25 Image
Read 19 tweets
Aug 21
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/9 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/21/2022

$UUP ๐Ÿš€
$VIX โ†—๏ธ
$TLT โ†˜๏ธ
$GLD โ†˜๏ธ
$EFA โ†˜๏ธ
$BNO โ†˜๏ธ
$DBA โ†˜๏ธ

An aberration? or a resumption of primary Trend = (T)

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/9

๐Ÿคด๐Ÿฝ ๐Ÿ’ต aka the wrecking ๐ŸŽณ

$UUP +2.4% (w) +5.05% (T)
$FXF -1.75% (w) +1.45% (T)
$FXC -1.8% (w) -1.25% (T)
$FXE -2.2% (w) -5.15% (T)
$FXB -2.55% (w) -5.3% (T)
$FXY -2.5% (w) -6.7% (T)
$FXA -3.44% (w) -2.25% (T)

Chart: $USD with room to run
2a/9

$EURUSD back to parity
Read 17 tweets
Aug 19
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$HYG -1.55%
$TLT -0.55%

$SPX +0.1%
$COMPQ -0.65%
$DAX -1.65%
$SSEC -0.6%
$NIKK +1.35%

$USD +1.94% โฌ…๏ธ
$GBP -2.1%
$GOLD -2.7%

$WTIC -3.0%
$NATGAS +3.55%

$COPPER -1.25%

#Bitcoin -12.4% โฌ…๏ธ

Let's dig into the pre #opex ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ to โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28930 -0.05%
$SSEC 3258 -0.6%
$TWII 15409 +0.1%
$HSI 19772 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2493 -0.6%
$IDX 7172 -0.2%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7114 unch

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59639 -1.1%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 13558 -1.0%
$FTSE 7514 -0.35%
$CAC 6512 -0.7%
$AEX 772 -0.5%
$IBEX 8343 -1.05%
$MIB 22643 -1.5%
$SMI 11174 +0.05%
$MOEX 2185 -0.45% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 23.54 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 13535 - 13895 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Aug 14
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

1/7 ๐Ÿงต

Global Macro Review 08/14/2022

A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, โž• the July services #PMI โ†—๏ธ โž• #NFP โ†—๏ธ, kept the ๐Ÿ”ฅ burning on risk assets - enough to lure the โ™‰๏ธ

Is this a new โ™‰๏ธ market or the end of the ๐Ÿป rally?

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Equity volatility โ†˜๏ธ across market and ๐Ÿป Trend (T)

$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps

Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM ๐Ÿ†• โ™‰๏ธ
3/7

US equity indices ๐Ÿš€

$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) ๐Ÿ†• โ™‰๏ธ
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
Read 16 tweets
Aug 12
Hello Friday and the Week to date

$SSEC +1.7%
$SPX +1.5%
$KOPSI +1.3%
$DAX +0.9%

$AUD +2.8%
$GBP +1.02%
$GOLD +0.9%
$USD -1.4%

$LUMBER +24.3%
$COTTON +8.8%
$BRENT +5.05%
$COPPER +4.35%
$BTC +3.5%

$TLT -1.8%

Let's dig into more ๐Ÿงฎ!
Closed for ๐Ÿ”๏ธ day yesterday, ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต played catch โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 28547 +2.6% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 7032 -0.55%
$TWII 15289 +0.6%
$HSI 20163 +0.4%
$KOSPI 2528 +0.15%
$IDX 7130 -0.45%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7032 -0.55%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59519 +0.3%
Europe โ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธ at the open

$DAX 13779 +0.65%
$FTSE 7509 +0.6%
$CAC 6578 +0.5%
$AEX 726 -0.05%
$IBEX 8442 +0.75%
$MIB 22986 +0.55%
$SMI 11165 +0.1%
$MOEX 2140 +0.3% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 21.15

$DAX range = 13376 - 13858 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets

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